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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

GFSP shows the higher strat temperatures moving over the North Pole towards our side of the globe, which I believe is what we need.

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Not much to cheer about long term on the ensembles. Looks like a fair chance of some snow in the south west and west mids on Thurs from that decaying front though? 

10BD051B-F4B4-4A56-A2DE-20027AAF3B4F.png

Edited by Tim Bland
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
6 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Yet another T+384 strat chart!

Well its there so vaild input I guess.Only like a 47 esq winter chart should it crop up on the mo

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

the model run predicts the temps to reach the heady heights of zero c @ T300.  that's not T384. i've seen quite a few comments about the warmings never making it below the end of the runs - these posts are plainly bollux 

Well its a fairly new member whos posted ,not a pro?guess hel see quite a lot of posts on here that are -------!! prob mine included

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

some interesting charts starting to appear at the end of the 06z GEFS, again possibly a quick reaction to the predicted stratospheric warming 

gensnh-1-1-384.thumb.png.702a4097db3ae25eb76d0e9b6b11897f.pnggensnh-1-5-384.thumb.png.d5300aedc9727dc0db9389d77c4dc696.pnggensnh-1-0-384.thumb.png.d4b8827cfa22fab32ef365523078271c.png  

gensnh-5-5-384.thumb.png.7b34f7b128e91a6e9f0c0c9758eb04f6.pnggensnh-5-1-384.thumb.png.9112f2ad66eda5b6b7054bbb5bb997e0.png 

tempresult_qnu8.thumb.gif.e7e42e14630fa7ce8d6d2570abc2d0b4.gif

gensnh-17-1-384.thumb.png.6965ddc8c3e2cebdfa4e73be18ba18b8.png

06z 10hPa mean gensnh-21-7-384.thumb.png.6df92aee46df13e2e2bfcea72215d024.png

 

gensnh-0-7-384.thumb.png.4b3cb0de9411ddb78250c2d9b362b8cd.pnggensnh-2-7-384.thumb.png.d2019168eb36a68f5d32fc0071c99ade.pnggensnh-3-7-384.thumb.png.edeb3182ec3608f8438b227719966d35.pnggensnh-5-7-384.thumb.png.2ab717300e63dd4ddc1bad110187b62a.pnggensnh-6-7-384.thumb.png.6fa6f4aaaaf5e9ef414a0643ffaee998.png 

 

gensnh-10-7-384.thumb.png.83090f141512ade0153e7bab5927ee3b.pnggensnh-14-7-384.thumb.png.a30c1f90fd81ade12c6a0ca9e563ad35.pnggensnh-16-7-384.thumb.png.ad94d33a0cf191edf1eb1e6d64026264.pnggensnh-18-7-384.thumb.png.7625c5dc5cc2bad001d82e3a688738da.pnggensnh-20-7-384.thumb.png.3581d485f1af7ddebcaa73dff3fac23c.png 

 

 

Looks like a displacement at the moment?

Think chino has just posted in the strat thread- split is better.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

the model run predicts the temps to reach the heady heights of zero c @ T300.  that's not T384. i've seen quite a few comments about the warmings never making it below the end of the runs - these posts are plainly bollux 

Hi

The warming forecast looks to be on track which is great...

...just wondering as I look at the 30mb heights for the stratosphere, and I don't remember the PV being so large previous years? Will that make a full SSW more difficult? The forecast for heights for Boxing Day:

NH_HGT_30mb_384.thumb.gif.d5f1060d0600825556f2f4d89f12df7a.gif

What are the expert's thoughts?

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

The latest ECM Seasonal model is worth a mention..

JFM.thumb.png.c61f4d3ac36380860ea12e8f62c6cfda.png

3 month anomalies don't really mean a whole lot but that looks like a pretty decent signal for blocking heights and Southerly tracking lows!

I would say not too shabby......

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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
5 minutes ago, shaky said:

Good start icon 12z!!high further west and more trough disruption with cold air flooding in from south east!

Way further west, even bringing my location into the game if it were to verify! No confidence in it sadly!

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
7 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Thought you snow stared lover might like this picture taken today in resort centre, 30 cm of fresh snowfall. Just come at the right time. By Thursday we see the start of trough disruption to the SW of Britain with any precipitation likely to head into France. Thereafter, a other thrust of Atlantic airmass into the British Isles. Question ,( do you think it will displace any cold air to the east) ? Their model closer to the latest Canadian Model , so they are 50/50 split/ The longer term charts out from days 10-15 indicate low pressure over the British Isles with this slowly sinking into the continent by day 15 with rise of pressure following to NW. A more southerly fragmented jet expected to develop rather than the normal SW to NE flow. So take what you want from this but looks UK may still be on the colder side of the Polar Jet prior to Christmas. Still of the opinion that a more potent Scandinavian Block to develop between Christmas and New Year. We will see .

C

C

47687190_10157027294723628_1901176984495456256_o.jpg

I take that C.....it’s how I’ve been seeing it with LP sinking south into near Continent.  Robust block probably more turn of the year imo,  so all in all a good update for me

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
11 minutes ago, shaky said:

Good start icon 12z!!high further west and more trough disruption with cold air flooding in from south east!

 Where does one view the ICON?

cancel ....got it

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
6 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

The latest ECM Seasonal model is worth a mention..

JFM.thumb.png.c61f4d3ac36380860ea12e8f62c6cfda.png

3 month anomalies don't really mean a whole lot but that looks like a pretty decent signal for blocking heights and Southerly tracking lows!

A cracking overview.

Blocking line eye opening..

And yes good scope/positions for our part.

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
4 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

The latest ECM Seasonal model is worth a mention..

JFM.thumb.png.c61f4d3ac36380860ea12e8f62c6cfda.png

3 month anomalies don't really mean a whole lot but that looks like a pretty decent signal for blocking heights and Southerly tracking lows!

Looks brill..

Was it released on 1st Dec?

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Looks brill..

Was it released on 1st Dec?

I believe it's released to subscribers of the ECMWF around then and then it's made available when the NDA runs out around the 9th ish.

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
5 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

The latest ECM Seasonal model is worth a mention..

JFM.thumb.png.c61f4d3ac36380860ea12e8f62c6cfda.png

3 month anomalies don't really mean a whole lot but that looks like a pretty decent signal for blocking heights and Southerly tracking lows!

I wonder what past winters were like when there has been a strong Aleutian low-weak Icelandic low combi?

 

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Just now, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

Either on Meteociel.fr or on their app 

Found it meteociel......thanks JRR (Tolkien)

 

BFTP

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