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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
16 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Just a note - the eps clusters reveal the op was progressive by day 6 and two slightly larger clusters push an upper ridge up from the south before the Atlantic pushes in - that may complicate things if the Atlantic jet isn’t modelled accurately 

in the mid term, the Atlantic trough keen to dig towards Iberia - that could throw up a new scandi ridge by day 10

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018121000_240.

A real dog's dinner by D10. But with height anomalies either in the NE or in the NW, and trough anomalies generally either at our latitude or further south, you'd have to think some kind of higher level ridging will again emerge in the op runs during the coming days.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

^^

Best one yet.

1 minute ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Para gets the warming to +12.. Almost could catch a sun tan. 

Screenshot_20181210-120437.thumb.jpg.0c38da36599badb6e285dc005d3d7834.jpg

 

 

You could catch a sun tan if you had the means to get up there not almost catch one, reason being if you can get up to 70000ft without aircraft, you can get up to 160000ft, and if you  did, it would be +25c!!

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

In the meantime, we'll just have to enjoy a sheet sandwich?

Netweather GFS Image

is that on brown or brown?

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
1 minute ago, weirpig said:

at 10hpa  what is the normal temp of the strat  -10c??

Currently -80C over Northern Russia, -60C over Blighty, and no higher than -36C anywhere North of 60deg lat.

It's worth watching the entire GFSP run at 10hPa because the initial attack starts right now and builds relentlessly. Surely, just once, we can get the benefit from this in January?

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

at 10hpa  what is the normal temp of the strat  -10c??

It depends where? over the North pole at this time of year - around -76c

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
7 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Currently -80C over Northern Russia, -60C over Blighty, and no higher than -36C anywhere North of 60deg lat.

It's worth watching the entire GFSP run at 10hPa because the initial attack starts right now and builds relentlessly. Surely, just once, we can get the benefit from this in January?

Sorry Yarmy  i ment in relation to other warmings  on averge what temps does the strat get to?. 

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
19 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Wow. I'm pretty sure a split wouldn't be far away. 

 

Screenshot_20181210-120615.thumb.jpg.464e46c8dea705892ffa6cb7899421e8.jpg

probably not your correct .The problem in the uk is the positioning of any split and then the synoptics ete.Wed probably end up in a wet southerly while cairo freezes!!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
16 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Some turnaround by the parallel. We've seen this week that it still isn't quite at the level of the ECM on this kind of trough disruption.

gfs-16-138.png?6

Strange as the precip type just shows rain away from Scotland And peaks? Shows how knife edge it is likely to be! Will probably come down to 24hrs before and the use of high res models like Hirlam and Euro4

63B8D7BD-7B75-4985-88C2-1BFED7F06E0B.png

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
6 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Sorry Yarmy  i ment in relation to other warmings  on averge what temps does the strat get to?. 

Don't know about other warming events, but looking at the North Pole average, the scale goes up to 0C:

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/

pole10_nh.gif

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
10 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Don't know about other warming events, but looking at the North Pole average, the scale goes up to 0C:

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/

pole10_nh.gif

 

 

If this warming pans out anything like 1984's did, I'll be very happy indeed!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

If this warming pans out anything like 1984's did, I'll be very happy indeed!

So would i, although some people in the North American continent who are not of our persuasion weather wise, certainly wouldn't!!!

 

That was a stonking displacement SSW.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_1985_cold_wave

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

So would i, although some people in the North American continent who are not of our persuasion weather wise, certainly wouldn't!!!

 

That was a stonking displacement SSW.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_1985_cold_wave

Well sod them!

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

So would i, although some people in the North American continent who are not of our persuasion weather wise, certainly wouldn't!!!

 

That was a stonking displacement SSW.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_1985_cold_wave

We can only hope......

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Posted
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK

Did that cold wave effect the UK (I was only weeks old then)? I'd like something here, especially with snow. 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
5 minutes ago, nn2013 said:

Did that cold wave effect the UK (I was only weeks old then)? I'd like something here, especially with snow. 

archivesnh-1985-1-4-12-0.png?archivesnh-1985-1-6-12-0.png?archivesnh-1985-1-15-12-0.png?

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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
1 minute ago, Surrey said:

You can have SSW... But that doesn't mean it will benefit the UK with cold... It's not a 100% for cold... I wish it was.. Can we shut the Atlantic out please..............................

It's around 70% effective, which in a meteorological context is a strong statistic. You would probably need a SSW to shut out the Atlantic for a lengthy period anyway. 

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