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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
6 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

Would be interesting to see what precipitation type this would be but because there has beta delay in the Atlantic the ICON is now out of range and so we have to wait a bit more, but still wouldn’t place too much hope in it being snow.

5DC150DB-468D-4F66-B286-9DFE11340C87.png

As a guess Eastern side, west of say Leicester rain

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Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
Just now, weirpig said:

well early doors   but on the 6z  snow affecting many parts of Wales  and pushing through to the Midlands 

Just saw that now, certainly an improvement just have to be very careful that it doesn’t move too far west.

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

06z has a dusting of snow for the SW and South Wales on Thurs but the block holds and keeps the Atlantic at bay. Let’s see if the second push can deliver the goods ! 

1522ED1B-9F5B-4613-B9DA-4C6DBF6ECA8A.png

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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.

Interesting feature cropped up by surprise on the 06Z rolling out for Wales - Midlands at T75 (Thursday)

h500slp.thumb.png.ebda8828b2f7722e81c565655762802c.png

uksnowrisk.thumb.png.9cb38e9ef4e83bdd5573e58a92d03416.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

06z Still has rain for the weekend unfortunately 

7B88308D-3AF2-4C02-92E2-568763E096B4.png

33F1392B-2224-49C9-BE54-BBCBE83BBFCD.png

GFS still being unfair, experts on here slag it off, so assume it's wrong, better be, looks like it could be 12 degrees in the west

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

06z Still has rain for the weekend unfortunately 

7B88308D-3AF2-4C02-92E2-568763E096B4.png

33F1392B-2224-49C9-BE54-BBCBE83BBFCD.png

Yes if anyone is lucky to see snow the day before  better make a snowball and lob it quick   otherwise i have a feeling it will melt in mid air before it hits its desired target 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Saturday sure looks like Curtains Day, to me: Netweather GFS Image

Time to turn our attention to the north?

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

That much chopping and changing going on you can’t say it’s mild by the weekend because we all no that could quite easily all change. Even the experts haven’t a clue atm so don’t right off the block just yet 

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Saturday sure looks like Curtains Day, to me: Netweather GFS Image

Time to turn our attention to the north?

Agreed Ed.

I think the brief Easterly ship has now sailed.

All eyes on a Christmas Northerly now I think.

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
22 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

Just saw that now, certainly an improvement just have to be very careful that it doesn’t move too far west.

To be honest  i think the Gfs  has this snowline wrong. Just a hunch  but i cant see the band of snow making it this far west  i actually believe it wont even make it to the Uk.  we shall see. 

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Yes the Atlantic certainly wins out by the weekend.

390137045_viewimage(9).thumb.png.4ce2814bad147795c75b300918b915e8.png1085058184_viewimage(8).thumb.png.537b55d4d69b9603c13f967a9ba3771e.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Just now, weirpig said:

To be honest  i think the Gfs  has this snowline wrong. Just a hunch  but i cant see the band of snow making it this far west  i actually believe it wont even make it to the Uk.  we shall see. 

this far east?

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

this far east?

Whoops  sorry  yes  this far East  Latest Arpege showing this  hitting a brick wall in the Irish Sea

Edited by weirpig
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

6Z gfs may have an area of high pressure moving into the north  atlantic or even Greenland!!!1

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Some may get a wet dusting Wed/Thursday over high ground.

1828486595_viewimage(10).thumb.png.4ad26aaf9700926c96bcda24edfc14a3.png

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

Think people need to give up on the currently easterly saga, the Atlantic is too powerful and is coming through sharpish. Mid term there is interest, although the Atlantic is very strong at the moment the over all hemispheric pattern is still looking good for us for more chances.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
4 minutes ago, swfc said:

6Z gfs may have an area of high pressure moving into the north  atlantic or even Greenland!!!1

Hopefully, with enough ridging to put an end to the Atlantic...hope those LPs drift into mainland Europe:

Netweather GFS Image

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Hopefully, with enough ridging to put an end to the Atlantic...hope those LPs drift into mainland Europe:

Netweather GFS Image

Once the block to the east gets shunted away hopefully we can get another ridge in the atlantic thrown up. just in time for Xmas.

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