The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

[SMU]

Morning guys -

So the full transition of the GFS is nearly there this morning especially the FV3- 

** Note the ECM now with -9c into EA @96  

This precludes some snow on the first slider - my guess would be the SW midlands along M4 somewhere like that 

To achieve a wider snow event we need to hold up the atlantic a little more like the UKMO 144- ( but more needed )

I would say the chances are 60/40 in favour of a slower evolution but not set in stone.... 

Look for upgrades 12z....

[shaky]

9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning guys -

So the full transition of the GFS is nearly there this morning especially the FV3- 

** Note the ECM now with -9c into EA @96  

This precludes some snow on the first slider - my guess would be the SW midlands along M4 somewhere like that 

To achieve a wider snow event we need to hold up the atlantic a little more like the UKMO 144- ( but more needed )

I would say the chances are 60/40 in favour of a slower evolution but not set in stone.... 

Look for upgrades 12z....

Yup -9 nearly into thr midlands lol!!but steve am not sure how the atlantic will stay at bay between 120 and 144 hours!!it looks too much for the block the 2nd time round lol!!lets see!!

[SLEETY]

14 minutes ago, Lincs Observation said:

Well in my opinion it’s all about the trending pattern, so if easterlies keep popping up eventually that pattern will become the form horse as we move toward the new year and beyond I feel.

 

LO

Yeah expect the next attack will be at the end of the year,and this one should definitely make it.January is going to one heck of a month if you like cold and snow ,and about time we had a cold and snowy January.Your location is prime for the next attack

[Nick F]

Certainly an upgrade for deeper cold on the 00z ECM, with -9C T850s into E Anglia early Friday:

The only problem is, like yesterday's 12z EC,  that there is scant precipitation on Friday, thanks to trough disruption too far W/SW:

... until Saturday, when we have a surge from the Atlantic, by which time it looks wrong side of marginal (well over 0C T850s) when the precip arrives, away from highest ground in the north

Still, could be changes to the angle of approach to Saturday's frontal system, move WNW-ESE (negative) orientated and we may just squeeze enough cold air ahead of the front to bring a brief spell of preceding snow. Frontal disruption before then still not resolved Thurs/Friday, GFS shows this further east, but across the west. Still a lot of uncertainty Thursday onwards, but certainly models upgrading the cold late week, with the block over Scandi having more influence with ridge and cold and dry continental air further west across us.

Edited December 10, 2018 by Nick F

[Stevetynant]

7 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Yeah expect the next attack will be at the end of the year,and this one should definitely make it.January is going to one heck of a month if you like cold and snow ,and about time we had a cold and snowy January.Your location is prime for the next attack

Thats a pretty bold statement, which I hope is correct - whats the evidence though?

[Tim Bland]

Massive backtrack from UKMO (as expected) all models now agree on Atlantic coming through so at least we can all agree on that now. Re the potential for a snowy breakdown - It looked much better a few days ago, these slightly lower uppers in the east and a delay of the Atlantic push isn’t really helping. See below for some of the ECM charts from before the weekend,  now there is almost nothing ...

[That ECM]

16 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Massive backtrack from UKMO (as expected) all models now agree on Atlantic coming through so at least we can all agree on that now. Re the potential for a snowy breakdown - It looked much better a few days ago, these slightly lower uppers in the east and a delay of the Atlantic push isn’t really helping. See below for some of the ECM charts from before the weekend,  now there is almost nothing ...

Ukmo t96 shows what the t144 showed a couple of days ago. You then use ecm snow charts to back up that the ukmo has massively backtracked!! 

[Purga]

GEM gives most of us a nice snow event on Sunday

Courtesy of a cold undercut.

Some settling snow for a while in Central / Western areas

Just sayin'

 

Edited December 10, 2018 by Purga

[Tim Bland]

38 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Ukmo t96 shows what the t144 showed a couple of days ago. You then use ecm snow charts to back up that the ukmo has massively backtracked!! 

I meant that the UKMO has backtracked from last nights output. I was then talking about the ECM in terms of snow opportunity. If you think the UKMO shows a snowy breakdown that’s great, unfortunately we don’t see enough data to confirm that

Edited December 10, 2018 by Tim Bland

[Chesil View]

Interesting Meto 144 tentative signs suggesting that the Atlantic low wants to dive southeast into Europe and the Scandinavian high looking to link over the top with the growing Arctic high.

[Summer Sun]

A lot of precipitation around at t144 on this mornings UKMO

t168 offers a bit of a respite although not completely dry

[frosty ground]

Just now, Summer Sun said:

A lot of precipitation around at t144 on this mornings UKMO

t168 offers a bit of a respite although not completely dry

Looks like a lot of rain

[Snowman.]

Just wanted to put into perspective what's happened over the past few days and how a D6 chart can change so much.

   

Purples to the NW gone, bowling ball low elongated heading SE and a much better block.

Changes are more dramatic on a D7 chart.

 

Just food for thought when discussing this weekend and beyond..

 

 

[MR EXTREMES]

1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

Massive backtrack from UKMO (as expected) all models now agree on Atlantic coming through so at least we can all agree on that now. Re the potential for a snowy breakdown - It looked much better a few days ago, these slightly lower uppers in the east and a delay of the Atlantic push isn’t really helping. See below for some of the ECM charts from before the weekend,  now there is almost nothing ...

Even the professionals don't know the outcome.

It's not a massive back track until the fat lady sings.

It's 50/50 and such a fine margins I wouldn't even bother trying to find the total outcome.

Things could remain cold and with some snowfall but we could have a real back track in the next few days where the block declines much quicker.

It's all about the strength of the jet where and how strong the block will be.

Then there's chance we could have the entire Atlantic systems rolling se into Europe with better stability for the block to hold on.

I'm right on the fence because yes I've seen these patterns come to nothing.

 

But then no pain no gain.

Still a massively impressive year for weather long may it continue.

I'm watching with great interest still feel there's 09/10 feel to the start of this winter.

 

As someone mentioned yesterday very classic 80s style winter.

[Weegaz]

Quite a few have talked about month end and Christmas period for a possible northerly bringing wider scope of snow to the uk and Ireland, hopefully this trend continues and upgrades, will be a rollercoaster as per usual 

[Yarmy]

Icon is back in action for the 6z, after the 18z and 0z runs went AWOL. Large differences early on from the previous run:

6z T78

 

12z T96

 

Stronger heights over Scandi and Atlantic delayed.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Just a brief post, but still some possibilities of seeing one or two rain, sleet, or snow (especially high ground) for places as models continue showing Low Pressure areas in the Atlantic colliding with colder air to the East via the Scandinavian High. Probably likely any wintry weather would be transient during the weekend as the Atlantic generally becomes a little bit more powerful and brings in milder air. But perhaps still enough time for things to alter a little and for the Scandinavian block to squeeze out a bit more power against those devilish dudes out West. Still looks overall the Atlantic will win, in the end.

Snow just seems so much more exciting than plain ol’ rain that often occurs from the Atlantic, so it would be cool (personally) for the wintry enthusiasts to be offered something white and wonderous.

[northwestsnow]

16 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Just a brief post, but still some possibilities of seeing one or two rain, sleet, or snow (especially high ground) for places as models continue showing Low Pressure areas in the Atlantic colliding with colder air to the East via the Scandinavian High. Probably likely any wintry weather would be transient during the weekend as the Atlantic generally becomes a little bit more powerful and brings in milder air. But perhaps still enough time for things to alter a little and for the Scandinavian block to squeeze out a bit more power against those devilish dudes out West. Still looks overall the Atlantic will win, in the end.

Snow just seems so much more exciting than plain ol’ rain that often occurs from the Atlantic, so it would be cool (personally) for the wintry enthusiasts to be offered something white and wonderous.

Agreed, i was pinning all my hopes on UKMO 12z..

STILL just about some wriggle room left 96 onwards but think 12zs will be last chance saloon for swing back to the block..

One has to say though, EC/GFS not painting a very pretty picture mid - long term with a very active Atlantic ..

[Tim Bland]

31 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

Even the professionals don't know the outcome.

It's not a massive back Track

I was saying that the UKMO 00z run is a backtrack (in terms of cold longevity and snow) compared to its previous (12z) run. That’s not my opinion or forecast,  it’s just a factual report of the output. I think it’s only fair for members who don’t view the models and come in here to get a report to find out what is actually shown. I know it’s the ‘hunt for cold’ and I’m as desperate as everyone for some snow, but a little reality needs to be injected occasionally 

Edited December 10, 2018 by Tim Bland

[SMU]

yes comparing 00z Icon v 06z you can show the atlantic withdrawing west-

Every opportunity of a big snow event this week-

If you in the East in the PPN zone now in the rain you may well be in the snow zone sat but....

You may also be to far East....

Standard fair here is the spine of the country.

Buxton here we come.....

[shaky]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

yes comparing 00z Icon v 06z you can show the atlantic withdrawing west-

Every opportunity of a big snow event this week-

If you in the East in the PPN zone now in the rain you may well be in the snow zone sat but....

You may also be to far East....

Standard fair here is the spine of the country.

Buxton here we come.....

Mate early upgrade on 06z gfs with high further west as early as 48 hours!!

[SMU]

Yes saw it^^^ nice easterly flow out of europe V SE on the 00z

[Methuselah]

GFS 06Z looking better at T+54...The 06Z usually adjusts eastward:

[Midlander]

Would be interesting to see what precipitation type this would be but because there has beta delay in the Atlantic the ICON is now out of range and so we have to wait a bit more, but still wouldn’t place too much hope in it being snow.

[BlueHedgehog074]

21 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Agreed, i was pinning all my hopes on UKMO 12z..

STILL just about some wriggle room left 96 onwards but think 12zs will be last chance saloon for swing back to the block..

One has to say though, EC/GFS not painting a very pretty picture mid - long term with a very active Atlantic ..

Yeah, that 12Z UKMO yesterday was really interesting with that Scandinavian block putting its foot down on the Atlantic right up to that 144 hour mark. 

Just got to hope future GFS and ECMWF runs will improve things in the longer term. Edit: some of the runs have at least been flirting with the idea of a Northerly towards Christmas.  

Edited December 10, 2018 by DiagonalRedLine