Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Recommended Posts

7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

The Atlantic wins this one, FV3 T162:

image.thumb.jpg.c8eecf116fdcd9603b667b9c8dd59bdb.jpg

Well we kind of knew that, it's what comes after, I've been banging on about this for a while, northerly incoming, either next attempt or the one after!

How potent would said northerly be? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
16 minutes ago, Johnp said:

You'll need to click to refresh those.

No I've just removed them, meant to be the new ones but obviously not.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Good GEFS 10mb temp mean, might be a few members with SSW in there.

gensnh-21-7-384_kpc1.png

a few of the best looking ones  looks like Santa could be bringing a stratospheric warming with him on his sleigh this year :santa-emoji: :reindeer-emoji:

tempresult_qjq2.thumb.gif.04f4d39d47fd313466b2f217e78536e4.gif

gensnh-6-7-384.thumb.png.61ae3b1062f81f249adefa6b4a5c7a85.png 

tempresult_duz8.thumb.gif.f6dedad585107ef6478689600952e969.gif

tempresult_mfw4.thumb.gif.b91b2fb77b5e38a30faf8761cf8dbc97.gif

tempresult_uhz2.thumb.gif.6c5e79852e83325c94aae3b3ed58763c.gif

tempresult_xbx7.thumb.gif.ad6f65c48d7b1d2a1afec072d7b34185.gif

tempresult_xzr1.thumb.gif.ff2d7f069e0266355a802e61edf2bc91.gif

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

It Says 00z?

Yeah, I've removed them NWS. 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
20 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Here is the 120hr

.

6589BDBB-F9A5-4322-9247-AAFC55A6B6EB.jpeg

Thanks. Where did you get that chart from, not Meteociel?

 

Found the colour version on the MO site. Looks like the Atlantic is being held further back there.

83796401.gif

Edited by snowray
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
8 minutes ago, Mr Brown said:

How potent would said northerly be? 

Very uncertain at the moment, but last run FV3 at T300 has this:

image.thumb.jpg.a80d5ad54884eebde26de59f7f3f3352.jpg

Which I would say is not as amplified as it could be, I think there is a possibility of a more potent northerly than this just before Christmas but there is a lot of uncertainty to get out of the way this week first, Theresa May would concur, I'm sure!

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Strat warming latest on FV3, here at T348 and T384:

image.thumb.jpg.280e92ac6742bf487010b2f17a9b819d.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.f5603e9b95d83d9080452b8e1f1d6486.jpg

Powerful! But we do need to keep a watch that we don't end up on the wrong side of the vortex, even so!

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Isle of Man
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Blizzards, Storms, Hot, Foggy - Infact everything
  • Location: Isle of Man

 Latest Fax chart showing the cold air starting to filter in. Likely to see big changes soon in the output as the Atlantic hits the buffers and then just fades away!  East is where to look , not west !!!  

Edited by JBMWeatherForever
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Although there’s been some positive changes re the cold backing west the upstream troughing shows no sign of disrupting favourably at day 6.

I know we’re coming up to Christmas but not sure the models are in the mood to deliver a miracle .

The shape of that upstream troughing looks all wrong, the ECM ensembles aren’t interested at all bar the odd straggler .

Give it to tomorrow morning but it really would be the mother of all turnarounds if the Atlantic is held at bay past day 6 .

Edited by nick sussex
  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

As we enter Christmas week, didn't really see this evolution, but we could do worse than the JMA, here T264:

image.thumb.jpg.8d981ff21b5eb285dddc8a85ea2dc9bb.jpg

So, from today, positives on all three timescales:

An altogether more concerted effort by the block to resist the Atlantic, it won't win but might allow for some snow for some in the meantime.

Possible amplification in the run up to Christmas with the possibility of a, probably fairly brief, northerly.

Massive interest in the longer term, post the SSW if it happens.

Good times.

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset

Upto 92h GFS slightly further west again.. 

 

120h not sure about it.. Cold air is gone with SWly winds and big differences in Europe may mess up the run too.

Not liking this GFS at all.. so painful to watch

 

Very boring run.. low pressure over us for days... May pull in Nwly but as no cold air there just sums up the run really..

Edited by Dave Kightley
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The stratospheric fuel warning light has just come on

gfsnh-10-324.png?0

gfsnh-10-384.png?0

Not another 384h chart! There is diff a trend for some interest to our west just before Christmas though.. GFS did deliver some interest at 360 hours if only temporary as in previous runs

Edited by Dave Kightley
  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Just now, Dave Kightley said:

Not another 384h chart! There is diff a trend for some interest to our west just before Christmas though.. GFS did deliver some interest at 360 hours if only temporary

The warming initiates circa day 10 now...it's moving forward.

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The warming initiates circa day 10 now...it's moving forward.

Well let's hope come the come the end of December this continues to develop plus I think our new interest may come from the west currently in the models

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

Ecm makes it a clean sweep for the Atlantic trough to have taken control over the UK by the weekend. At we should have a break from the relentless wind and rain this week. Where we go from there is uncertain, but hopefully the pattern is more progressive than the gfs has shown with its last couple of runs with a deep Atlantic low stationary just to the west or over the UK in the run up to Xmas.

Ecm day 6:

 

ECMOPEU00_144_1.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

back to the Atlantic dross by the weekend.Thats the 2nd easterly that’s failed to make it ,reminds me of a winter in the past.The next easterly definitely made it across to our shores in that winter,will history repeat itself.⛷️

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Mid Welsh/English Border
  • Weather Preferences: Snow! Exciting weather!
  • Location: Mid Welsh/English Border

Snow line currently shown here - potentially for 24hrs atm........Modele GFS - Carte prévisions

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

I would say UKMO is showing the block doing a good job of holding back the Atlantic. Notice the positioning of the Atlantic low pressure system compared especially to the GFS, close to diving into Europe under the block rather than just ploughing over the top. 

UE144-21 (4).gif

ECE1-144 (2).gif

gfseu-0-144 (2).png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Kyme, Lincolnshire
  • Location: South Kyme, Lincolnshire
35 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

back to the Atlantic dross by the weekend.Thats the 2nd easterly that’s failed to make it ,reminds me of a winter in the past.The next easterly definitely made it across to our shores in that winter,will history repeat itself.⛷️

Well in my opinion it’s all about the trending pattern, so if easterlies keep popping up eventually that pattern will become the form horse as we move toward the new year and beyond I feel.

 

LO

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

At least the Canadian Global Model pushes the button for a snowy next weekend across Blighty. Looks like on its own ,especially as its American neighbour model is very progressive to bring a milder flow in as early as 120t as is the ECM. However, UKMO maybe not as progressive as the other big two.  Still quite a bit of uncertainty as regards the 300mb jet strength and positioning in the period 120-240t. So not all decided yet.

C

 

overview_20181210_00_144.jpg

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...