Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
3 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Aren’t they Met Office products? 

MOGREPS is, not sure if Tim meant UKV but if he did then yes both of them are. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Good point, wonder where the BBC graphic came from then? MOGREPS? UKMV ?

This from Ian a couple of months ago should help answer this one. Not sure which one of those was then used though for today’s.

93140F93-87C3-49BF-99A4-C9AAD50D5A3C.png

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
14 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

Sorry Matt thank you for explaining, just to clarify the ICON-EU is 'better' because it has more vertical layers.

Theoretically yes..... but Ukmo is lower res and less layers than ec  and you will find many who feel Ukmo is closer to the correct solution at day 6 than ec ! 

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

SSW..1st one predicted so far from GFS?

Not a technical SSW yet. A good few more runs yet i would think, as long as we see those temps getting nearer in time frame and nearer to the pole without fizzling out though, then we will see it eventually.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Grays, Thurrock
  • Location: Grays, Thurrock
11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Oh yes!

gfsnh-10-384_zyo2.png

Almost and look at date 25th. GP is going to bang on with the 26th his a bit good.

Edited by pages
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

That strat warming has been showing for days, with variations in intensity, orientation and how quickly it develops. A number of runs have shown temperatures getting above 0’C. It starts to develop from around 210 hours I think.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
1 hour ago, snowray said:

Ah them were the good old days, the forecasters looked smart and the graphics were clear and easy to follow!

The quality though reminds me a bit of some of the last BBC TV transmissions that they made just before war broke out in 1939, but come to think of it they were in black and white but in spite of the flickering were better quality than this from 1996.:oldlaugh:

Did that system end up stalling further West? I'm sure this is the time the West Country got hit as I were like 7 at the time and this was the last time in about 10 years to see a decent fall

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester
1 minute ago, pages said:

Almost and look at date 25th. GP is going to bang on with the 26th his a bit good.

My understanding from Feb/Mar is that it takes at the very least a week to ten days before the impacts of the SSW to percolate down through the stratosphere to the troposphere and then drive the reversal of winds lower down at ground level. I understand that there might be other factors in our favour this time around but for the PV to be fully contorted, there is still a rather short waiting game.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
9 minutes ago, pages said:

Almost and look at date 25th. GP is going to bang on with the 26th his a bit good.

Hope so - i always thought a bit longer (thought we would need another bout after that, thought it was going to fizzle out) but that run means it does have a chance, although there can be a lag between temps and actual effect on the vortex,

This is the chart, we need to see the vortex pushedaway so that the higher heights cover more than half the globe at 60N as opposed to the vortex.

https://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/strat.php?run=2018120918&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=384

Edited by feb1991blizzard
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

Had been hoping to see a northerly flavor develop between 20th and 25th but have to be honest - no discernable signal developing yet :

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018120912_300.

62%-38% On a favorable outcome MIB?

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

I notice that the Fax chart for T96 and T120 are not out yet tonight, should have been put up ages ago on meteociel. Could they be struggling a bit I wonder, FI at T96 and all that? 

And still no ICON 18z....Maybe the computer over in Germany has crashed with all the conflicting input, or the mild bias guys over there have just pulled the plug on it because it was showing more upgrades for cold and snow!:oldlaugh:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

They are out, UKMO Fax T96 and T120.

Edit...Yup they are still the old ones, just removed them, not been updated after all then??

 

 

Edited by snowray
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather what else!
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset
5 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Para  

gfsnh-0-102.png?18

What once was a Very angry looking lobe of the vortex out west, is now looking less ominous by the hour!  

Whatever happens it will be totally fascinating to see how things unfold over the next few days.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

It Says 00z?

Here is the 120hr

.

6589BDBB-F9A5-4322-9247-AAFC55A6B6EB.jpeg

Edited by Johnp
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

The Atlantic wins this one, FV3 T162:

image.thumb.jpg.c8eecf116fdcd9603b667b9c8dd59bdb.jpg

Well we kind of knew that, it's what comes after, I've been banging on about this for a while, northerly incoming, either next attempt or the one after!

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...