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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

just watched the BBC weather for the week ahead on BBC news and im sure she said high pressure winning out over the atlantic. i have been testing the xmas sherry tho.

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Had Worse Maestro

Had Worse

Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
Posted
1 minute ago, More Snow said:

just watched the BBC weather for the week ahead on BBC news and im sure she said high pressure winning out over the atlantic. i have been testing the xmas sherry tho.

 

2 minutes ago, More Snow said:

just watched the BBC weather for the week ahead on BBC news and im sure she said high pressure winning out over the atlantic. i have been testing the xmas sherry tho.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/46500018 

listen again, you are correct.

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Midlander Community Regular

Midlander

Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
Posted (edited)

ICON 18Z also still not going for a snow event, with snow restricted to the summits/ peaks of Wales and Northern England, we still need further upgrades, because I personally can't see anything which indicates a substantial risk of a snow event.

iconeu_uk1-42-114-0.png

Edited by AppleUK 123
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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted
23 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS is on it this run- Expect to have a distinct snowline in the frontal zone this time around...

Nope 

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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, AppleUK 123 said:

ICON 18Z also still not going for a snow event, with snow restricted to the summits/ peaks of Wales and Northern England, we still need further upgrades, because I personally can't see anything which indicates a substantial risk of a snow event.

iconeu_uk1-42-114-0.png

Like I said to Brian on TWO ^^ Why dont you post it up every run & watch things begin to change...

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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Its coming.... 00z / 06z but its coming.

Oh man steve you getting me excited mate!!00z runs are gona be a nailbiter!!wana wake up to huge upgrades tomorrow!reckon the low at 144 hours could slide aswell!

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Midlander Community Regular

Midlander

Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
Posted
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Like I said to Brian on TWO ^^ Why dont you post it up every run & watch things begin to change...

Thank you Steve, you do give me hope but seems it is going to be a real 'stretch' to pull off something magical, and I suppose it is a fine line between pushing everything too far west so the precipitation doesn't actually arrive and it moving too Far East preventing the colder air from moving in.

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weirpig Maestro

weirpig

Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
Posted

still very much up in the air regarding any snowfall  such a fluid situation    however  my favourite run of the day goes to arpege 12z   quite a lot of snowfall for the spine of the country

arpegeeur-2-102.png?12   arpegeeur-2-108.png?12

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Singularity Maestro

Singularity

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
Posted

hgt300.png hgt300.png

I don't usually examine such fine detail at this range these days but thought it worth highlighting how the main through of the jet on the eastern flank of the trough has been switched from cross-UK to Icelandic approach. A subtle shift toward allowing the Scandinavian blocking to first hold on and second head northwest.

Okay, that'll do for today. I need to save my energy for late this month and January... now how presumptuous is that? 

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Weathizard Accomplished

Weathizard

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Posted

GFS still consistent and insistent on bringing SW winds, I would go with the UKM and ECM in this situation as the GFS has a known Atlantic bias comparably to the others. Not a done deal by any means though.

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Midlander Community Regular

Midlander

Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
Posted
1 minute ago, weirpig said:

still very much up in the air regarding any snowfall  such a fluid situation    however  my favourite run of the day goes to arpege 12z   quite a lot of snowfall for the spine of the country

arpegeeur-2-102.png?12   arpegeeur-2-108.png?12

Thank you Weipig, I suppose I would rather have the Arpege going for it over the GFS, unlike previous situations last year this one seems even more like an uphill struggle. 

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Midlander Community Regular

Midlander

Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
Posted (edited)

Just to add although synoptically this is not the situation at all, this 'kind of' reminds me of 20th January 2018 when I saw a snow to sleet/ice to rain event with the Atlantic pushing through. Although unfortunately the Atlantic won, that event did bring the largest snowflakes of the Winter.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jfBdliktS2c

Edited by AppleUK 123
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MattTarrant Aficionado

MattTarrant

Posted
  • Location: Ramsey, Minnesota (USA)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/Snow/Hail & Strong Winds
  • Location: Ramsey, Minnesota (USA)
Posted
7 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

ICON 18Z also still not going for a snow event, with snow restricted to the summits/ peaks of Wales and Northern England, we still need further upgrades, because I personally can't see anything which indicates a substantial risk of a snow event.

iconeu_uk1-42-114-0.png

'ICON (13km)' DOES NOT EQUAL ICON - EU (7km). 

Uncertain as to whether the model physics are the same (ie Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic), though the vertical and horizontal resolution are appreciably different. 

ICON (13km) = 60 Vertical Layers

ICON - EU (7km) = 90 Vertical Layers

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

BBC graphics were for Saturday .... arpege was Thursday .....

Good point, wonder where the BBC graphic came from then? MOGREPS? UKV?

Edited by Tim Bland
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Bartlett High Aficionado

Bartlett High

Posted
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and very cold.
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
Posted
1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Good point, wonder where the BBC graphic came from then? MOGREPS? UKMV ?

BBC graphic department.

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Midlander Community Regular

Midlander

Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
Posted
1 minute ago, MattTarrant said:

 'ICON (13km)' DOES NOT EQUAL ICON - EU (7km). 

Uncertain as to whether the model physics are the same (ie Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic), though the vertical and horizontal resolution are appreciably different. 

ICON (13km) = 60 Vertical Layers

ICON - EU (7km) = 90 Vertical Layers

Sorry Matt thank you for explaining, just to clarify the ICON-EU is 'better' because it has more vertical layers.

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BlueHedgehog074 Veteran

BlueHedgehog074

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
Posted
3 minutes ago, P-M said:

Can you post a link as I don't see the summary anywhere?

Hi P-M, a link to the summary here: https://www.weatherbell.com/video/the-saturday-summary-151?full 

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Spah1 Accomplished

Spah1

Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
Posted
2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Good point, wonder where the BBC graphic came from then? MOGREPS? UKMV ?

Aren’t they Met Office products? 

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