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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
8 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

That's something I really wish the BBC wouldn't do; snow falling at 7C, in December, is about as realistic as a graphic showing folks having a barbecue!

Your eyesight must be worse than mine, the 7 refers to Ireland

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Just now, shaky said:

Nope icon poor at 120 hours on uk view!!energy goin north east again!!over to gfs!!

Can't view the ICON 18z over on meteociel, its still showing the 12z, it did the same thing with the JMA earlier, kept showing the 06z.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
5 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Your eyesight must be worse than mine, the 7 refers to Ireland

Thanks John...Deletion imminent!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Now i know these were max temps and were right next to the snow not over it but it did look really bad, i have seen a real dumping being shown in Highland Scotland and it looked to an untrained eye as 12c.

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
43 minutes ago, snowray said:

Feb 96, I believe the front ground to a halt around the spine of the country, It snowed from Heathrow to Wales, in fact if you were driving westbound you would have seen a sprinkling of snow just west of London to really large amounts, like over a foot in places as you drove west and north west, it was wet snow in the far west of the country then rain.

The front never made it this far and just fizzled out in situ. 

Is that the one?:oldrolleyes:

Not to make anyone jealous but I think that event delivered 24 level inches hereabouts. I've only seen it like that on a handful of occasions... Either before or since

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
12 minutes ago, shaky said:

Nope icon poor at 120 hours on uk view!!energy goin north east again!!over to gfs!!

I only have the 12z run on meteociel

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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Is that the 18z?

not out on wz or meteociel ...

 

Edited by Johnp
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Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Is that the 18z?

not out on wz or meteociel ...

The 18z is out on the UK view.

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

If we consider this a tale of three trough disruptions... as of the 12z runs, GFS only manages 1, ECM manages 2 and UKMO tries for all three (hard to be sure with the limited-view +168 chart).

Not long ago those numbers were 0, 1 and 2 respectively. Then 1, 2 and 2.

So the big question with respect to next weekend is, is there enough in the blocking pattern to force that third trough to disrupt once the westerly momentum is corrected downward (though not much left in this as the models are largely caught-up with respect to AAM this coming week... still going way too low for the week after, mind!).

 

Yes, it's all small fry compared to the grander developments that GFS + GEFS would be illustrating so much more nicely in the surface levels if only it didn't keep taking AAM implausibly low in week 2 (EPS seems to be behaving better though), but gains here should further contribute to the disruption of the vortex down the line and as they say, every little helps. Especially when that 'little' is added to the Greenland height rises which you can see ECM having a go at days 9-10 (as what manner of blocking survives this weekend is likely to head that way as the new tropical cycle takes effect). If I have the facts straight, such height rises can drive another bout of wave-2 activity can kick off from, and in a location ideal for taking apart an already weakened polar vortex. Extended modelling is starting to sniff out this potential as per ZL's excellent graphics shared in the stratosphere thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

 

Best UK snow event for me - ever - bar none. A whole week without work. Only trouble was the damned power was down....

I think the 18z is now sliding more too at 78h..... Very interesting.

 

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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS is on it this run- Expect to have a distinct snowline in the frontal zone this time around...

Still not a patch on UKMO...

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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

More digging to the SE in this run

gfs-0-84.png?18

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: Bitter Cold in winter and Extreme heat in summer
  • Location: Leeds
9 minutes ago, Due South said:

Joe Bastardi (Saturday Summary) a must watch. Implications for UK and Europe

Any link?

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
10 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

 

Ah them were the good old days, the forecasters looked smart and the graphics were clear and easy to follow!

The quality though reminds me a bit of some of the last BBC TV transmissions that they made just before war broke out in 1939, but come to think of it they were in black and white but in spite of the flickering were better quality than this from 1996.:oldlaugh:

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Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
Just now, snowray said:

Ah them were the good old days, the forecasters looked smart and the graphics were clear and easy to follow!

The quality though reminds me a bit of some of the last BBC TV transmissions that they made just before war broke out in 1939, but come to think of it they were in black and white but in spite of the flickering were better quality than this from 1996.:oldlaugh:

Double snow event

?

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Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)

Although we are seeing 'improvements' the model is still not indicating a snow event.

18_87_preciptype.png

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

One word sums next week up, having just watched the Beeb 10-dayer. 

Whether (or should that read weather), it's the politics or weather for the upcoming week, it is....

UNCERTAINTY 

 

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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