Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
Just now, Broadmayne blizzard said:

That,ll be because the BBC forecasts are supplied by Metrogroup not the met office

And their forecasts have gone backwards because of it. You can often see the forecaster half cringing as they know it's likely not accurate

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
6 minutes ago, snowray said:

Feb 96, I believe the front ground to a halt around the spine of the country, It snowed from Heathrow to Wales, in fact if you were driving westbound you would have seen a sprinkling of snow just west of London to really large amounts, like over a foot in places as you drove west and north west, it was wet snow in the far west of the country then rain.

The front never made it this far and just fizzled out in situ. 

Is that the one?:oldrolleyes:

must have been, perhaps a bit like the failed snowfest of 12th March 2006

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
1 minute ago, Don said:

That event was a typical let down during the winter of 1995/96, seeing very little snow IMBY for such a cold winter.

Was it north of the M4 again? I can't remember that but would be just typical.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
On 07/12/2018 at 19:02, markw2680 said:

One thing we no is that the models will not be showing what they are now for net week come Sunday so plenty of time for westward corrections or not? I find quite often when we have good charts for like the following week there always seems to be a few days where they start to look crap before they slowly start to upgrade nearer the time. 

You just never no still plenty of time left yet

I’m still seeing westward corrections as said here, I have a feeling the Atlantic won’t make it very far at all before been pushed back again. Just my thoughts so will see

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather what else!
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset
9 minutes ago, snowray said:

Feb 96, I believe the front ground to a halt around the spine of the country, It snowed from Heathrow to Wales, in fact if you were driving westbound you would have seen a sprinkling of snow just west of London to really large amounts, like over a foot in places as you drove west and north west, it was wet snow in the far west of the country then rain.

The front never made it this far and just fizzled out in situ. 

Is that the one?:oldrolleyes:

I lived in blackpool back in 96, Most amount of snow I ever experienced came from this event, started snowing around 1 pm and didn't stop for over 24hs! Unfortunately I now live on the south coast, unless the next Ice age appears anytime soon, I would say it's likely to be my biggest event! lol

But I still enjoy the chase!

Edited by Christchurch storm nut
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Just now, Christchurch storm nut said:

I lived in blackpool back in 96, Most amount of snow I ever experienced came from this event, started snowing around 1 pm and didn't stop for over 24hs! Unfortunately I now live on the south coast, unless the next Ice age appears anything soon, I would say it's likely to be my biggest event! lol

But I still enjoy the chase!

I remember the North West did particularly well, was it places like Cumbria that were snowed in?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
34 minutes ago, ZK099 said:

What do you think will 'happen'?

Image result for Winter 1984 anomaly

Something like this...I'd probably tweak it slightly to lessen the deep low anomalies to the S with a more discrete LP anomaly N France, Germany, Denmark sort of area. Either way, I think mean wind direction will be NE'ly throughout the period of interest. 

I'm also unsure about how much troughing will be left Canadian side...Which leads me to my thoughts of a 20% chance of blocking being too west based. That's a low risk IMO for now though. We'll just have to see how everything unfolds.

Found this online when attempting to find an analogue that suits my thoughts..believe it's from the NW winter forecast

Edited by CreweCold
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Icon further west at 60 hours and trough disrupting even more around the southwest!!looking at the uk view not northern hemispheric one!!that still updating!!

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Does that graphic really show snow and 7 degrees????

I suspect EC is going to be too progressive..

 

Those BBC graphics are low resolution, so may be more of a wintry mix. However, those temperatures are probably the maximum for that period which may occur after the front has moved through with milder air behind it. Also, the BBC (and Met Office) often seem to have temperatures a bit too high a few days out during a cold spell.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Does that graphic really show snow and 7 degrees????

I suspect EC is going to be too progressive..

 

Belfast and Dublin it shows 7 degrees

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Nutts Corner
  • Location: Nutts Corner
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Does that graphic really show snow and 7 degrees????

I suspect EC is going to be too progressive..

 

7 degrees in Belfast, something to do with the boilers we run, we get paid to heat the outside air, long story

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
10 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

When doesn't it?

It is a big change though Pete, 

 

BFTP

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
4 minutes ago, snowray said:

Was it north of the M4 again? I can't remember that but would be just typical.

I think it spanned from the north west of London across to the north west of the country!

Edited by Don
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
4 minutes ago, snowray said:

Feb 96, I believe the front ground to a halt around the spine of the country, It snowed from Heathrow to Wales, in fact if you were driving westbound you would have seen a sprinkling of snow just west of London to really large amounts, like over a foot in places as you drove west and north west, it was wet snow in the far west of the country then rain.

The front never made it this far and just fizzled out in situ. 

Is that the one?:oldrolleyes:

I was in MK back then and, after the initial snow had gone west (8th?) the rest of the month was dry, if bone-chillingly cold. The initial - and only - lying snow slowly sublimated throughout the rest of the month. It did snow on March 1st, though!

IMO, month whose horribleness was only matched by March 2013...

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
5 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

I’m still seeing westward corrections as said here, I have a feeling the Atlantic won’t make it very far at all before been pushed back again. Just my thoughts so will see

let's hope not like the failed event of 12th March 2006, before my days on here but remember it, Atlantic didn't really make it, but this location still saw very little snow

archives-2006-3-12-12-0.pngarchives-2006-3-13-12-0.pngarchives-2006-3-16-0-0.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather what else!
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset
1 minute ago, snowray said:

I remember the North West did particularly well, was it places like Cumbria that were snowed in?

I believe so, it also made me realize how important hight is to snow depth, my paper round finished at the highest point in Blackpool, and by the time I got to deliver the morning papers that where obviously deleyed until around 2pm (no kidding) you couldn't even open gates to deliver the papers, absolutely amazing! Also it was the one and only time I have ever experienced true community spirit, checking on the elderly, helping to clear roads and so on, anyway slightly off topic, sorry mods

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
1 minute ago, Christchurch storm nut said:

I believe so, it also made me realize how important hight is to snow depth, my paper round finished at the highest point in Blackpool, and by the time I got to deliver the morning papers that where obviously deleyed until around 2pm (no kidding) you couldn't even open gates to deliver the papers, absolutely amazing! Also it was the one and only time I have ever experienced true community spirit, checking on the elderly, helping to clear roads and so on, anyway slightly off topic, sorry mods

Highest point in Blackpool? Isn't that like 10 metres?

Or do you mean top of the tower?

 

Edited by CreweCold
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
10 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Those BBC graphics are low resolution, so may be more of a wintry mix. However, those temperatures are probably the maximum for that period which may occur after the front has moved through with milder air behind it. Also, the BBC (and Met Office) often seem to have temperatures a bit too high a few days out during a cold spell.

That's something I really wish the BBC wouldn't do; snow falling at 7C, in December, is about as realistic as a graphic showing folks having a barbecue!

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather what else!
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset
5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Highest point in Blackpool? Isn't that like 10 metres?

 

Lol, you are not far off

Warbreck is the highest point at 112ft ,which makes it 4452nd highest point in England

either way it still made a difference from one of the lowest points!

 

Edited by Christchurch storm nut
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

That's something I really wish the BBC wouldn't do; snow falling at 7C, in December, is about as realistic as a graphic showing folks having a barbecue!

the snow is shown at 3 degrees, still too warm, 7's are in Ireland

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

He dared to suggest that blizzards may not be imminent. A major crime if ever there was one. 

Oh deary me ( certainly not aimed at you Ed this ) , cmon folks will tweet great fun seeing famous or not so famous people potentially getting it wrong . Wouldn’t be the first time would it , ( not this individual I must say ) great respect from me .

Edited by Mark wheeler
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

That's something I really wish the BBC wouldn't do; snow falling at 7C, in December, is about as realistic as a graphic showing folks having a barbecue!

it doesnt show that! why cant people read the graphics..... jeez

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
21 minutes ago, snowray said:

I remember the North West did particularly well, was it places like Cumbria that were snowed in?

Sorry to keep this discussion alive- it is the model thread, however, yes brought whiteout conditions here, we had 18 inches, much of the county was closed off.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...