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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Shades of Feb 96...

I do hope not Steve - a month of cold, dry and cloudy weather does not appeal, one little bit. Neither, should I say, does any prospect of a ten-day-wonder like 1987...

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
5 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Lovely Aurora after the solar wind hit 7/8....model nearterm outlook changed last 12- 24 hrs?  

BFTP

When doesn't it?

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes ^^^

 

Talking of the ECM for the 16th just a 13 degree downward change in 36 hours

0214B96E-5C93-4BFE-81B8-6E7D9510C0B3.thumb.jpeg.a0291d200b858d476d5bf4004ef9aa82.jpeg2B213617-10E3-4ACB-BCAE-557CBBEFD64E.thumb.jpeg.2e6092a30ff7cbaf714b9a3be437b469.jpeg

Oh i agree- there has been a backtrack,the fledgling anticyclone is now projected to be far more resilient than previously projected- the trough disruption at the end of the coming week was absolutely not forecast.EC/UKMO now both show cold persisting and possibly intensifying as we get to Friday, then they diverge....

You are quite right, GFS is all over the shop.

Blue is probably 75/25% right that UKMO will back down tomorrow,but this is one of those occasions where a whole suite could flip at the 11th hour, because if UKMO is right, thats what will happen with the EC suite, the south westerlies progged for next sat will vanish..

 

Edited by northwestsnow
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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I do hope not Steve - a month of cold, dry and cloudy weather does not appeal, one little bit. Neither, should I say, does any prospect of a ten-day-wonder like 1987...

said before I think, don't think I had much if any snow then, rings no bells, other 90's events I remember well

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ANYWEATHER Maestro

ANYWEATHER

Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
Posted

Evening ! The cold block to our East looks tonight , to be stronger and tougher than expected....Expect computer models to struggle in this age old battle!

madras.png

madrasx.png

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snowray Veteran

snowray

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Posted
2 hours ago, carinthian said:

Hi there, I will be talking to them tomorrow morning. Last Friday they did as I reported then indicate their longer range outputs had shown cold weather the week before Christmas for much of Europe and the British Isles. I was under the assumption from a Scandinavia High holding and falling heights to the south but will try and get clarification tomorrow morning if this still holds on their latest singular model run which updates every 24 hours. Its usually very good in the time span 10-15 days.

 C

Thanks I look forward to that update tomorrow. 

 

Anyone notice this on the FV3, quite a bit of snow there looking a possibility on Thursday/Friday on the front edge of that first low that undercuts.

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mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted

The latest Met Office forecast from Thomas Schafenaker has London with temperatures of 6 degrees by Friday, 10 degrees out West?

Only posting this as it appears at  variance with model output.

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ZK099 Enthusiast

ZK099

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

The way I see it is, there's that little entrenched cold over the UK and to our east that it really isn't worth splitting hairs over.

It's akin to two bald men arguing over a comb. 

We might see 1-2 days of a weakish continental influence, it'll feel cold sure, but anyone expecting a major snow event will be disappointed. Some places will see snow, many will not.

On to the end of the month...

This week will look like a fart in a hurricane if what I think will happen, happens.

What do you think will 'happen'?

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January Snowstorm Accomplished

January Snowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
Posted

I see the gfs is getting quite a bashing tonight. Usually I would defend it but it does seem a bit off the pace on how strong this Scandinavian high is. It always struggles here..

So for the moment the ECM/UKMO are leading the charge

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted
1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

I see the gfs is getting quite a bashing tonight. Usually I would defend it but it does seem a bit off the pace on how strong this Scandinavian high is. It always struggles here..

So for the moment the ECM/UKMO are leading the charge

Let’s hope UKMO is on the money as there’s no snow on the ECM

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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted
3 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

I see the gfs is getting quite a bashing tonight. Usually I would defend it but it does seem a bit off the pace on how strong this Scandinavian high is. It always struggles here..

So for the moment the ECM/UKMO are leading the charge

For those wanting snow, I'd be looking for a compromise between the GFS and the others tonight. A halfway house needed for maximum snow event on Thursday / Friday (even if it means a quicker breakdown) 

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Ninman Contributor

Ninman

Posted
  • Location: Nottingham, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and sunny
  • Location: Nottingham, UK
  • Popular Post
Posted
9 minutes ago, snowray said:

Thanks I look forward to that update tomorrow. 

 

Anyone notice this on the FV3, quite a bit of snow there looking a possibility on Thursday/Friday on the front edge of that first low that undercuts.

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BBC seeing something similar but on Saturday:

image.thumb.png.b51ca48b8919f7133c91dbce4c61a4a9.pngimage.thumb.png.df9c5230b431b8f99ba5b24021883edd.png

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
11 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

The latest Met Office forecast from Thomas Schafenaker has London with temperatures of 6 degrees by Friday, 10 degrees out West?

Only posting this as it appears at  variance with model output.

I think that will drop by a good 3 or 4 degreees personally.

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damianslaw Maestro

damianslaw

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
Posted

There were hints yesterday the models were trending towards a more resilient blocking high to our east scenario later next week, alas, they are all very much firm on this, and the timings are well within the reliable - will we continue to see them holding the atlantic at bay for longer than first thought - we shall see. A 1035mb scandi high is not to be sniffed at, the atlantic isn't in super-charge mode, so trough disruption and stalling looks likely Thursday/Friday. Too early to start speculating about snow, but the continental feed and lower dewpoints will certainly aid development of a wintry mix along the stalling front.

Energy looks like splitting to our south, which will help maintain a more continental feed for longer, however, it will most probably be only a matter of time before the atlantic moves in.. but possibly not a westerly trajectory, a couple of days of westerly influence might ensue, but its notable how both ECM and GFS want to sink low heights south through the UK with heights building to the north, more so NW, so a cold northerly interlude could develop.

A good day for cold snow lovers.

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted
6 minutes ago, Ninman said:

BBC seeing something similar but on Saturday:

image.thumb.png.b51ca48b8919f7133c91dbce4c61a4a9.pngimage.thumb.png.df9c5230b431b8f99ba5b24021883edd.png

The old ‘M4’ line is clear in that 

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
Just now, Chertseystreamer79 said:

Just look at that m4 corridor....I'm not happy, in fact I'm quite sad! (Prob nothing like this come then but would not suprise!)

Lol, you meet me to it.  I was just going to post 'that bloody M4 corridor!'  Still, my own fault.  When I relocated earlier this year, I should have moved somewhere north of the M4!

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snowray Veteran

snowray

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

said before I think, don't think I had much if any snow then, rings no bells, other 90's events I remember well

Feb 96, I believe the front ground to a halt around the spine of the country, It snowed from Heathrow to Wales, in fact if you were driving westbound you would have seen a sprinkling of snow just west of London to really large amounts, like over a foot in places as you drove west and north west, it was wet snow in the far west of the country then rain.

The front never made it this far and just fizzled out in situ. 

Is that the one?:oldrolleyes:

Edited by snowray
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Ben Lewis Rising Star

Ben Lewis

Posted
  • Location: Ampthill, Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Heat, Cold, Sun
  • Location: Ampthill, Bedfordshire
Posted
24 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

loved this time last year

archives-2017-12-10-12-0.png

5 inches here. 

A million miles away from this time last year 

9E68C5BF-4A80-4112-B7BC-45D923489B62.png

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Chesil View Accomplished

Chesil View

Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

The latest Met Office forecast from Thomas Schafenaker has London with temperatures of 6 degrees by Friday, 10 degrees out West?

Only posting this as it appears at  variance with model output.

That,ll be because the BBC forecasts are supplied by Meteogroup not the met office

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard
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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
3 minutes ago, snowray said:

Feb 96, I believe the front ground to a halt around the spine of the country, It snowed from Heathrow to Wales, in fact if you were driving westbound you would have seen a sprinkling of snow just west of London to really large amounts, like over a foot in places as you drove west and north west, it was wet snow in the far west of the country then rain.

The front never made it this far and just fizzled out in situ. 

Is that the one?:oldrolleyes:

That event was a typical let down during the winter of 1995/96, seeing very little snow IMBY for such a cold winter.

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
1 minute ago, Ben Lewis said:

5 inches here. 

A million miles away from this time last year 

9E68C5BF-4A80-4112-B7BC-45D923489B62.png

Narrowly missed this event.  However, didn't have to travel far to find the snow!

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