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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
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Posted

Just waiting for the UKMO 168 however taken at face value UKMO 144 has a classic curvature of the isolines back into the continent & the flow of the atlantic indicates its not going to make it-
* Also heights building over GH *

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
17 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The way I see it is, there's that little entrenched cold over the UK and to our east that it really isn't worth splitting hairs over.

It's akin to two bald men arguing over a comb. 

We might see 1-2 days of a weakish continental influence, it'll feel cold sure, but anyone expecting a major snow event will be disappointed. Some places will see snow, many will not.

On to the end of the month...

This week will look like a fart in a hurricane if what I think will happen, happens.

I sure hope you're correct CC!  I'm happy to sacrifice a mild December for a cold January/February, but this current weather is a real chore!

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
Just now, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

If we get the thrust as ‘anticipated ‘ uppers won’t be an issue.....there is so much arctic air sitting around ready to ‘spill’ out.  The very fast ice recovery suggested this imo

 

BFTP

Yes, don't get me wrong, if it comes 'round the back' after a massive continental plunge then uppers wont be an issue, im just saying that to predict -20c uppers is difficult this far out, i have looked through almost every winter since the 1875 on meteociel and can find very few, if any that bring those kind of temps into the UK.

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
Just now, Don said:

I sure hope you're correct CC!  I'm happy to sacrifice a mild December for a cold January/February, but this current weather is a real chore!

I was feeling the same back in Nov 2009...

Just wanted the rain and mild to end.

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
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Posted

Cold backed west on the 12z EC later in the week but the trough disruption has too, which means cold and dry for most on Thursday and Friday, until a big surge by the Atlantic- which brings wind and rain, perhaps preceded briefly by snow, NE across all parts on Saturday.

FC01E9BA-9379-4D47-AA23-A1450C318E98.thumb.jpeg.5dece8c313fb48415549f1299f7f2b32.jpeg3516C618-A8FD-4475-B7E8-FCE6C9BFBD7F.thumb.jpeg.37d2132af449c60b56e8a514e04db745.jpeg

So although a colder run, would prefer to see trough disruption further NE later in the week, otherwise dry Thursday/Friday then a little snow for some but rain for most on Saturday as milder air floods NE.

still a way off though, so subject to change...

 

 

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I was feeling the same back in Nov 2009...

Just wanted the rain and mild to end.

Indeed, and we were nicely rewarded in December and January!

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Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted
2 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Cold backed west on the 12z EC later in the week but the trough disruption has too, which means cold and dry for most on Thursday and Friday, until a big surge by the Atlantic- which brings wind and rain, perhaps preceded briefly by snow, NE across all parts on Saturday.

FC01E9BA-9379-4D47-AA23-A1450C318E98.thumb.jpeg.5dece8c313fb48415549f1299f7f2b32.jpeg3516C618-A8FD-4475-B7E8-FCE6C9BFBD7F.thumb.jpeg.37d2132af449c60b56e8a514e04db745.jpeg

So although a colder run, would prefer to see trough disruption further NE later in the week, otherwise dry Thursday/Friday then a little snow for some but rain for most on Saturday as milder air floods NE.

still a way off though, so subject to change...

 

 

It`s going to take a big turnaround to stop Saturday, Nick. Regarding the other, less so.

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
2 minutes ago, Don said:

Indeed, and we were nicely rewarded in December and January!

Ay, Jan and Feb is best time for cold setups, FI is looking interesting on the GFS, but GFS is the model I want wrong for next week, EC and UKMO, give us a few welcome dry days

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

If we get the thrust as ‘anticipated ‘ uppers won’t be an issue.....there is so much serious cold arctic air sitting around ready to ‘spill’ out.  The very fast ice recovery suggested this imo

BFTP

You may well be right, Fred...But is this, the third 'anticipated' thrust, going to bring snowfalls as 'impactual' as the last two didn't?:santa-emoji:

Edited by Ed Stone
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Kirkcaldy Weather Maestro

Kirkcaldy Weather

Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
Posted
17 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Just looking at the GFS t348 to t384.....I know its deep FI....but the movement and the incredible Siberian HP ‘Backing West’ and the trigger LP.....man we’d end up 2-3 days later with easterlies from Mongolia....and an onset of a mini iceage

 

BFTP

these 2 GEFS members caught my eye from the 12z, possibly an immediate response to the stratospheric warming, could be some cracking charts appearing in the next few weeks I think :santa-emoji:

tempresult_ayo1.thumb.gif.0ff86e813ec2931ee06b5b31db783fa7.gif

tempresult_xgw5.thumb.gif.57a97871320bea32a5edee5f5e781fa2.gif

tempresult_wxd7.thumb.gif.2d483ebf2f58a077717078a3213cef8d.gif

tempresult_ozb5.thumb.gif.48cffeffa84794e6c044b6b1153ec883.gif

tempresult_ooo5.thumb.gif.2f6b8499f72dfb073efaf8b8d71f999e.gif

tempresult_ouy3.thumb.gif.16b3404e1773807e81cdd2cb5f391027.gif

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Jonathan Rhodri Roberts Enthusiast

Jonathan Rhodri Roberts

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Cold backed west on the 12z EC later in the week but the trough disruption has too, which means cold and dry for most on Thursday and Friday, until a big surge by the Atlantic- which brings wind and rain, perhaps preceded briefly by snow, NE across all parts on Saturday.

FC01E9BA-9379-4D47-AA23-A1450C318E98.thumb.jpeg.5dece8c313fb48415549f1299f7f2b32.jpeg3516C618-A8FD-4475-B7E8-FCE6C9BFBD7F.thumb.jpeg.37d2132af449c60b56e8a514e04db745.jpeg

So although a colder run, would prefer to see trough disruption further NE later in the week, otherwise dry Thursday/Friday then a little snow for some but rain for most on Saturday as milder air floods NE.

still a way off though, so subject to change...

 

 

To be honest after all the frequent rain and floods over the past few weeks here in South Wales, I personally wouldn't mind a cold and dry period at all and each extra day it lasts would be a big bonus ?? 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

This is great to see from the Ecm 12z..quite a high windchill factor there and hopefully even more short term favourable tweaks to come which would mean better prospects in the mid / longer range!!:cold::santa-emoji:

72_mslp850uk.png

96_mslp850uk.png

120_mslp850uk.png

120_thick.png

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

You may well be right, Fred...But is this, the third 'anticipated' thrust, going to bring snowfalls as 'impactual' as the last two didn't?

Snow in Oct, snow in Nov....not bad Pete and impactual isn’t all about snow (mind you 2inches will be/is enough to shut the UK down ). Things ticking along nicely though.....tad mild recently though one has to admit...

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

JMA is a pile of crap after a decent FI yesterday 12z.

Dude, it's the JMA...

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
4 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Snow in Oct, snow in Nov....not bad Pete and impactual isn’t all about snow (mind you 2inches will be/is enough to shut the UK down ). Things ticking along nicely though.....tad mild recently though one has to admit...

BFTP

Well I certainly agree with the bolded bit, Fred...What happened with the coronal hole, BTW?⛷️

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carinthian Maestro

carinthian

Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
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Posted
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

UKMO 168 shows enough southerly drag ( better than ECM ) to generate a solid snow event Sunday...

837D0180-61AC-480C-9EE6-5B2B21A35CC6.thumb.png.7f058a4cac31f672478e72c37b517a1f.png

Looks like the front grinding to a halt/slow moving across the spine of the country. Notice also the opening up of the isobars out to the west, which is indicative of less of a zonal push.

C

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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Looks like the front grinding to a halt/slow moving across the spine of the country. Notice also the opening up of the isobars out to the west, which is indicative of less of a zonal push.

C

Shades of Feb 96...

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

will be worth looking at the clusters later but the eps really should have this right by day 4/5. There are enough of them running at a high enough resolution not to be about right - will wait for the 18z  icon day 5 to appear to see if it fails to phase the low heights from east to west but I doubt you will see the ukmo day 5/6 repeating in the morning .......

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

UKMO 168 shows enough southerly drag ( better than ECM ) to generate a solid snow event Sunday...

837D0180-61AC-480C-9EE6-5B2B21A35CC6.thumb.png.7f058a4cac31f672478e72c37b517a1f.png

 what odds would you put on it being right? I’d say 50-1 looking at other models and ensemble suits ? 

Edited by Tim Bland
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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Amen what odds would you put on it being right? I’d say 50-1 looking at other models and ensemble suits ? 

7/1 - ECM is close just a bit more forward momentum- changing southerly to SWesterly....

GFS is a mess-- 

 

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted
16 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Well I certainly agree with the bolded bit, Fred...What happened with the coronal hole, BTW?⛷️

Lovely Aurora after the solar wind hit 7/8....model nearterm outlook changed last 12- 24 hrs?  

 

BFTP

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
19 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

UKMO 168 shows enough southerly drag ( better than ECM ) to generate a solid snow event Sunday...

837D0180-61AC-480C-9EE6-5B2B21A35CC6.thumb.png.7f058a4cac31f672478e72c37b517a1f.png

Looking at the EC mean at 144 i think there is room for a UKMO solution..

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