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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Just now, Ed Stone said:

I'm struggling to remember which model is the bee knees and which one is the fly-in-the-ointment: it's as if the 'rankings' change as often as the 'word of God'!:help:

Gfs and ECM look better tonight,and the Ao  looks as though it doesn't want to go strong positive which is good platform for cold ies

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

ECE1-240.GIF?09-0

EC day 10-

Certainly better than the GFSp 12z which is horrendous...comparing like to like on the ecm 12's I just don't feel like we're getting anywhere after day 10 onwards - slightly southerly tracking jet stream but with low pressure continually near the country or others developing to our west so I feel we're getting no where fast looking into the longer term.

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Why the disdain for Matt Hugo?

FWIW I'd have pretty much backed his thoughts. What we're seeing in the modelling (the nuances around the UK as we edge closer to T0) are not impacting things much on a wider, more holistic scale. The Atlantic WILL come back in and as Tim Bland says, most of us of a wintry disposition will be far more concerned with the longer game i.e potential strat warming and end of December/early Jan cold.

Crewe, we all knew this was going to happen next weekend, that`s not what this weeks focus was on.

Edit: And just to make it clear, I never said a negative word about Matt on here, even when all the tweets were posted, I`m better than that.

Edited by Stuie W
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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx
33 minutes ago, wightwootton said:

Never seen them !

Wetterzentrale for the retro view and more measured look at in particular the jet.

Meteociel for speed - credit to Sylvian it's where the ECM rolls out the quickest - others may differ in their view.

I used to love metegroup esp for this kinda view at 500hPa - just too slow in the cut n thrust of winter - each to their own really ! Plus a few other oldies http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=eur&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=096&fixhh=1&hh=000

image.thumb.png.fa84495292aca84587ec928ac0d3bdec.png

 

image.png

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
10 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Certainly better than the GFSp 12z which is horrendous...comparing like to like on the ecm 12's I just don't feel like we're getting anywhere after day 10 onwards - slightly southerly tracking jet stream but with low pressure continually near the country or others developing to our west so I feel we're getting no where fast looking into the longer term.

Day 10 is locked with potential that low in Atlantic is going to slide South East look at the tilt allowing heights to build towards greenland with the wedge that already is there = Northerly just in time for Christmas ho ho ho

ECE1-240.gif

Edited by booferking
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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Man
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Blizzards, Storms, Hot, Foggy - Infact everything
  • Location: Isle of Man

I don't think there is much point looking at the day 10 charts at the moment. Its the hear and know which needs to be looked at very closely, as that is what is continuing to trend us towards an eventual full blown easterly !   

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

The swings in output run to run are really quite amusing. The UKMO and ECM seem to have caught GFS-itis. 

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Just looking at the GFS t348 to t384.....I know its deep FI....but the movement and the incredible Siberian HP ‘Backing West’ and the trigger LP.....man we’d end up 2-3 days later with easterlies from Mongolia....and an onset of a mini iceage

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

FV3 12z keeping the signal going, T384:

image.thumb.jpg.04963c6c4c59950a0c31ce6b625b2182.jpg

this is going to happen.  What it means in terms of weather later in our small country we can't be sure as of yet.   Atlantic driven lows galore won't be on the menu, I would suggest.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
14 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Why the disdain for Matt Hugo?

FWIW I'd have pretty much backed his thoughts. What we're seeing in the modelling (the nuances around the UK as we edge closer to T0) are not impacting things much on a wider, more holistic scale. The Atlantic WILL come back in and as Tim Bland says, most of us of a wintry disposition will be far more concerned with the longer game i.e potential strat warming and end of December/early Jan cold.

He dared to suggest that blizzards may not be imminent. A major crime if ever there was one. 

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The way I see it is, there's that little entrenched cold over the UK and to our east that it really isn't worth splitting hairs over.

It's akin to two bald men arguing over a comb. 

We might see 1-2 days of a weakish continental influence, it'll feel cold sure, but anyone expecting a major snow event will be disappointed. Some places will see snow, many will not.

On to the end of the month...

Well, ok it`s been an IMBY chase this week (East Anglia). Agreed the bigger picture is much more interesting but would still be a `highlight` if there was a days snow, for me anyway.

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Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

FV3 12z keeping the signal going, T384:

image.thumb.jpg.04963c6c4c59950a0c31ce6b625b2182.jpg

this is going to happen.  What it means in terms of weather later in our small country we can't be sure as of yet.   Atlantic driven lows galore won't be on the menu, I would suggest.

384h always though.... 

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Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
5 minutes ago, JBMWeatherForever said:

I don't think there is much point looking at the day 10 charts at the moment. Its the hear and know which needs to be looked at very closely, as that is what is continuing to trend us towards an eventual full blown easterly !   

So you're going for a full blown beast?  what time scales are you working on here?  Genuine question as I thought (currently) there's no real support for a full blown easterly?

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
6 minutes ago, booferking said:

Day 10 is locked with potential that low in Atlantic is going to slide South East look at the tilt allowing heights to build towards greenland with the wedge that already is there = Northerly just in time for Christmas ho ho ho

ECE1-240.gif

I very much doubt it unless your thinking more with heart than head and looking towards Xmas - I've been watching the ecm 12z's and comparing like to like for the last few days - we're not getting anywhere...

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
8 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The way I see it is, there's that little entrenched cold over the UK and to our east that it really isn't worth splitting hairs over.

It's akin to two bald men arguing over a comb. 

We might see 1-2 days of a weakish continental influence, it'll feel cold sure, but anyone expecting a major snow event will be disappointed. Some places will see snow, many will not.

On to the end of the month...

This week will look like a fart in a hurricane if what I think will happen, happens.

End of Month Aaron?  Are you expecting Jan 87?

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
2 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Well, ok it`s been an IMBY chase this week (East Anglia). Agreed the bigger picture is much more interesting but would still be a `highlight` if there was a days snow, for me anyway.

Much like last year an early snow event in December really does fill you with a little bit of Christmas spirit. Our Scandi block wasn't in vain however as it will put pressure on a already pressured vortex. 

Doubt it won't be long before we're chasing yet another cold spell.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
4 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

End of Month Aaron?  Are you expecting Jan 87?

 

BFTP

I expect mean heights to be centred somewhere between Scandi and Greenland, possibly weighted towards the Greenland side.

If we're to miss out (20% IMO) it'll be because of a west based set up.

Difficult to be specific with timeframes but if you apply a broad brush stroke of circa 30th December-15th January for the period of interest. Pretty much tallies with GP's thoughts I believe.

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
4 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

End of Month Aaron?  Are you expecting Jan 87?

 

BFTP

87 came up as one of my analogues, however, you can never really call a Jan 87 as despite the fact that the Easterlies can be repeated, you wont really know if extreme uppers are involved until nearer the time in my opinion.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

I expect mean heights to be centred somewhere between Scandi and Greenland, possibly weighted towards the Greenland side.

If we're to miss out (20% IMO) it'll be because of a west based set up.

Yes, although 87 was involved, there was a 'red hole' on the NOAA compositing site over Greenland - Thanks to Gavin Partridge for some of those by the way for the 'Nino after Nina the previous winter' package which i filtered from there.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
31 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

87 came up as one of my analogues, however, you can never really call a Jan 87 as despite the fact that the Easterlies can be repeated, you wont really know if extreme uppers are involved until nearer the time in my opinion.

If we get the thrust as ‘anticipated ‘ (inverted commas as it may well not materialise)  uppers won’t be an issue.....there is so much serious cold arctic air sitting around ready to ‘spill’ out.  The very fast ice recovery suggested this imo

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
2 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Much like last year an early snow event in December really does fill you with a little bit of Christmas spirit. Our Scandi block wasn't in vain however as it will put pressure on a already pressured vortex. 

Doubt it won't be long before we're chasing yet another cold spell.

Why not hey? I thought the theme of winter or chasing cold was to see some of the white stuff. If there wasn`t any chance of being IMBY I wouldn`t be chasing it this week. Today`s model swing has given that chance so I`m running with it. What I am not doing is pinning hopes even beyond FI.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, although 87 was involved, there was a 'red hole' on the NOAA compositing site over Greenland - Thanks to Gavin Partridge for some of those by the way for the 'Nino after Nina the previous winter' package which i filtered from there.

I hadn't looked at the analogues...so it's good that they back up my thoughts...

Still, nothing is a given until we see those white flakes fall

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