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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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P-M Seasoned

P-M

Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

Im not so sure, preparing for the backtracks here..... surely its delaying the inevitable mild winning, for the time being

I agree that in our neck of the woods (UK & Ireland) mild tends to win out, however the northern hemispheric pattern and the block slowly strengthening to our east would suggest the usual trends are being pushed further back... But anything could happen as it stands today.

Edited by P-M
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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

But they dont suddenly flip from all showing average uppers to all showing bitter uppers within the 144-168 range like some people would have you believe, it just doen't happen, yes this is a one off snowy battleground we are talking about so its not very cold uppers dependent, it is dependent on a low being a 100 miles further West and dewpoints / temps being a degree or so lower so Daniel does have a point on this one, but make no mistake about this, if anyone is thinking that the mean is so wrong that within 10-12 days we are gong to be in a continental long lasting cold feed, think again.

They flipped massively back in November.. the entire GFS ensemble suite was showing below average temperatures for an entire run, 2 runs later a majority was above average. 

It does happen. It happened quite remarkably in 2010 with the sudden flip to cold, too.

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

But they dont suddenly flip from all showing average uppers to all showing bitter uppers within the 144-168 range like some people would have you believe, it just doen't happen, yes this is a one off snowy battleground we are talking about so its not very cold uppers dependent, it is dependent on a low being a 100 miles further West and dewpoints / temps being a degree or so lower so Daniel does have a point on this one, but make no mistake about this, if anyone is thinking that the mean is so wrong that within 10-12 days we are gong to be in a continental long lasting cold feed, think again.

Oh I completely agree. I've NEVER, repeat NEVER seen an average suite upgrade to wintry nirvana within 1-2 runs in the near/medium term. I have seen it many a times the opposite way though.

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
Just now, Daniel Smith said:

They flipped massively back in November.. the entire GFS ensemble suite was showing below average temperatures for an entire run, 2 runs later a majority was above average. 

It does happen. It happened quite remarkably in 2010 with the sudden flip to cold, too.

Not whole suites flipping to cold in 144 or 168, i can guarantee that in 2010, there would have been either a majority cluster or a very significant minority cluster at D10, and im pretty sure it would have been signalled to a lesser degree all the way from 384.

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

Good to see the block being more influential as expected.  Going to feel pretty cold next week thus we see the cold pattern now start to crank itself up.  NH pattern has been primed for a while.....maybe it will now share itself with us ver the coming weeks.  I do think though folks, don’t get hung up on it holding and producing a big easterly as the Atlantic, it’ll never be far away though also so don’t be concerned either for any lengthy mild zoneality.  I’m very interested in deep FI.....look for LP to plunge south towards/at  Xmas to bring bitter cold for around the big day....GFS sniffing at this with several runs now.  The blocking in the hemisphere won’t allow the west to east passage so a southward plunge anticipated.....could be a trigger low.  Just some musings of my way forward.  

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

Crewe and Daniel

Take this suite now - if we were going to get a cold Easterly within 168, probably up to 240, i can cast iron guarantee that on this graph, there would be at the very minimum some stragglers and probably a decent sized cluster showing cold uppers - this graph, is a definitive 'no chance of a very cold Easterly' within 168 and almost certainly within 240 suite.

Diagramme GEFS

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Dave Kightley Enthusiast

Dave Kightley

Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
Posted (edited)

Way things have gone, the UKMO and ECM are quite different at 144h so its bound to change... The UKMO has more of a shallow low so banking on that one!

Edited by Dave Kightley
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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Crewe and Daniel

Take this suite now - if we were going to get a cold Easterly within 168, probably up to 240, i can cast iron guarantee that on this graph, there would be at the very minimum some stragglers and probably a decent sized cluster showing cold uppers - this graph, is a definitive 'no chance of a very cold Easterly' within 168 and almost certainly within 240 suite.

Diagramme GEFS

Feb, you're pretty much saying what I'm saying 

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CanadaAl Enthusiast

CanadaAl

Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: Continental:Warm dry summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
Posted
2 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Good to see the block being more influential as expected.  Going to feel pretty cold next week thus we see the cold pattern now start to crank itself up.  NH pattern has been primed for a while.....maybe it will now share itself with us ver the coming weeks.  I do think though folks, don’t get hung up on it holding and producing a big easterly as Atlantic.  It’ll never be far away though so don’t be concerned either for any mild zoneality.  I’m very interested in deep FI.....look for LP to plunge south towards/at  Xmas to bring bitter cold for around the big day....GFS sniffing at this with several runs now.  The blocking in the hemisphere won’t allow the west to east passage so a southward plunge anticipated.....could be a trigger low.  Just some musings of my way forward.  

 

BFTP

You're right, we'd be looking at 5 day of Atlantic max before mid Atlantic blocking primes itself for the big day. Certainly a lot of tasty synoptics, even if this easterly doesn't deliver. 

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, Banbury said:

That's your location, I've seen some cracking snowfalls from a 'battleground event'

I've seen them too. But many more fail than come-off. And that's including 21 years spent in the Scottish Highlands!

Edited by Ed Stone
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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Great 850s moving across on the ECM 96

Do you think cold / snow risk will last until this time next week and beyond ? 

Edited by Paul
Removed image from quote
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snowray Veteran

snowray

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Posted
9 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Oh I completely agree. I've NEVER, repeat NEVER seen an average suite upgrade to wintry nirvana within 1-2 runs in the near/medium term. I have seen it many a times the opposite way though.

Yes it's very rare indeed, maybe a good sign of things to come this winter.

After all, this will be our second easterly in under a month. Its going to feel very cold with or without snowfall next week, I'm thinking that snow flurries and pellets will likely be turning up after mid week, and still a good chance of more of a battleground and snow for Saturday before the milder air comes through....or should I say IF.:oldgrin:

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Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Didn’t Matt Hugo say he thought mild / Atlantic would win out by end of the week? This is what ECM shows ? Do you think cold / snow risk will last until this time next week and beyond ? 

Tim, this week has only been about a battleground scenario not a full blown Easterly.

Edit: And Matt said forget about this week to be precise.

Edited by Stuie W
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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Didn’t Matt Hugo say he thought mild / Atlantic would win out by end of the week? This is what ECM shows ? Do you think cold / snow risk will last until this time next week and beyond ? 

No - it was pretty much dismiss any thought of cold...

Anyway seeing as how the mods have deemed it to extreme in terms of banter then lets leave it there-

The first Low is going to disrupt with the prospect of snow - the second one appears on course to with the UKMO - lets see how ECM progresses next 24-36 hours -

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Jason M Experienced

Jason M

Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
Posted
6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Didn’t Matt Hugo say he thought mild / Atlantic would win out by end of the week? This is what ECM shows ? Do you think cold / snow risk will last until this time next week and beyond ? 

Don't know. From looking across the model suites tonight though I cannot find a single chart anywhere that has us in a cold easterly by 168. That includes GFS, GEFS, NAVGEM, JMA, ECM, GEM and GEM ensemble suite. On that basis he may well still be proved right.

I think this may be one of those situations where the destination is pretty much set but the route is still open to change. No doubt we have seen short term upgrades (snow for some lucky peeps this week) but nothing to suggest any longer term improvements. Indeed, from Retron's post on TWO we can almost certainly add MOGREPS to the above list in that it seems to be showing colder in the short term but nothing much of interest thereafter. Could still change of course.

 

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

I'm struggling to remember which model is the bee knees and which one is the fly-in-the-ointment: it's as if the 'rankings' change as often as the 'word of God'!:help:

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted
2 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Tim, this week has only been about a battleground scenario not a full blown Easterly.

Edit: And Matt said forget about this week to be precise.

Fair enough. I thought he meant forget about the prospect of the block holding and any proper cold and snow this week. Still looks like cold and dry followed by some snow then rain to end the week. Much more interested in what happens towards Xmas personally 

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weirpig Maestro

weirpig

Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Tim, this week has only been about a battleground scenario not a full blown Easterly.

Indeed  actually he implied that watching the minus 5 line trying to progress across the UK was funny as it's a done deal that milder uppers will encroach the UK   well the minus 5 has encroached the UK  on the ecm at least and pushed the Atlantic back  for however long  his recent tweet as somewhat backed down on his previous assumption 

Edited by weirpig
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Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted
Just now, Tim Bland said:

Fair enough. I thought he meant forget about the prospect of the block holding and any proper cold and snow this week. Still looks like cold and dry followed by some snow then rain to end the week. Much more interested in what happens towards Xmas personally 

No worries and yes I am in the bigger picture camp too but heck I have been hoping for this battleground thing for days.

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