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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

In other words - be it kosher or not - it's just, as Old Bill would have said, much ado about nothing?

That depends , yesterday the Atlantic was bombing through on Thursday , now its not even getting to us on Saturday ( as per the current runs )

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Really?  -  what exactly would you use ensembles for  then? you've stated that they are as useless as a chocolate fireguard beyond 240 before, you would not now trust them at D4-7, it beats me why you have a subscription to weatherbell then TBH?

FWIW Feb, I tend to believe ensembles are, for the majority of the time, pretty useless. As I've said before, I've seen whole suites flip within 1-2 runs. 

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Really?  -  what exactly would you use ensembles for  then? you've stated that they are as useless as a chocolate fireguard beyond 240 before, you would not now trust them at D4-7, it beats me why you have a subscription to weatherbell then TBH?

Usually ensembles are good out to day 7 and can be used as a rough guide of general patterns beyond that into week 2. But given the huge variance in the models that start at day 4, in THIS particular situation, beyond that they're not going to be much of use, are they?

The huge spread = massively watered down means that offer no real insight going forward, entire ensemble suites can flip in 24 hours at times, they can be incredibly fickle, especially in the current situation.

Edited by Daniel Smith
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Posted
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and very cold.
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
Just now, BARRY said:

well country file weather certainly sat on the fence the models were giving them headaches  

Said mild would win the battle though!

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

Not terrible at +120 hours. Blocking still holding firm. Cold uppers still over us. I'd imagine snow for some if fronts are making enough eastward progression.

120.gif

Edited by MattStoke
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Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL

From 80 to over 190 NW members viewing this thread within the space of 15 minutes...you know it's gotta be good :-))))

Edited by P-M
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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
2 minutes ago, Bartlett High said:

Said mild would win the battle though!

No the word was “should”

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
1 minute ago, BARRY said:

well country file weather certainly sat on the fence the models were giving them headaches  

Indeed Barry even more Fence sitting than Blue Army there from Thomas Tzschafenaker

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
3 minutes ago, Banbury said:

That depends , yesterday the Atlantic was bombing through on Thursday , now its not even getting to us on Saturday ( as per the current runs )

It must be my age, B...I've lost count of how many 'battleground snow events' have produced nowt more than about 20 minutes' sleet. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best???

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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Man
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Blizzards, Storms, Hot, Foggy - Infact everything
  • Location: Isle of Man

I think coldiest are going to have lots to be happy about shortly. The trend of the block becoming stronger has been gradual and continual since yesterday, and if this continues there will come a pivot point when we are back to a full blown easterly just as the models were originally showing. Also I think the countryfile weather is behind the curve. BBC's further outlook tomorrow may well have a different tale to tell.   

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
Just now, Ed Stone said:

It must be my age, B...I've lost count of how many 'battleground snow events' have produced nowt more than about 20 minutes' sleet. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best???

That's your location, I've seen some cracking snowfalls from a 'battleground event'

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Posted
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Thats it settled - ECM / UKMO hand in hand - GFS is going to fail 99.9%

What a great day -

Im not so sure, preparing for the backtracks here..... surely its delaying the inevitable mild winning, for the time being

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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Snow!!
  • Location: Isle of Wight
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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Ecm  way to progressive at t144 huge change from 12 hours ago.which was showing this

 

ECM1-144.GIF?09-12

to this .ECM1-144.GIF?09-0

 

Edited by SLEETY
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Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset

144h as the low has been annoying me for days it ends upbringing Swly winds on the ECM

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

FWIW Feb, I tend to believe ensembles are, for the majority of the time, pretty useless. As I've said before, I've seen whole suites flip within 1-2 runs. 

But they dont suddenly flip from all showing average uppers to all showing bitter uppers within the 144-168 range like some people would have you believe, it just doen't happen, yes this is a one off snowy battleground we are talking about so its not very cold uppers dependent, it is dependent on a low being a 100 miles further West and dewpoints / temps being a degree or so lower so Daniel does have a point on this one, but make no mistake about this, if anyone is thinking that the mean is so wrong that within 10-12 days we are gong to be in a continental long lasting cold feed, think again.

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

Atlantic gets in by Saturday but it keeps delaying on each run.

image.thumb.png.1b01f9e703d1a6fcdcfb4fd7b1b055af.png

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