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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
39 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

It can’t be viewed Tim it’s a in house meto model . @Steve Murr posted earlier  , got it from a trusted source .

Darren ( Retron ) from TWO has mentioned Mogreps - if you want an idea look at UKMO 144 as Darren has said out to 5 days its cold thereafter nothing great for coldies 

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

How exactly.He doesn’t work for the meto ,and if he did I doubt he would be allowed to mention what mogreps is showing.Just someone else making up they have  pretended they have seen mogreps

 Models have absolutely useless recently last week,from full on easterly,to easterly quickly being replaced,to now back to easterly again lol

1. Forecasters share what MOGREPS is showing on Twitter all the time when asked, doubt it's much of an issue as long as they're not posting the actual charts

2. Why would someone just make up that they know what MOGREPS is showing?

Edited by Daniel Smith
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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
Just now, SLEETY said:

How exactly.He doesn’t work for the meto ,and if he did I doubt he would be allowed to mention what mogreps is showing.Just someone else making up they have  pretended they have seen mogreps

Models have absolutely useless recently last week,from full on easterly,to easterly quickly being replaced,to now back to easterly again lol

Multiple people have explained he is trusted and you write this?

Pathetic.

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

How exactly.He doesn’t work for the meto ,and if he did I doubt he would be allowed to mention what mogreps is showing.Just someone else making up they have  pretended they have seen mogreps

Models have absolutely useless recently last week,from full on easterly,to easterly quickly being replaced,to now back to easterly again lol

That's not Darren's style, he doesn't make anything up , he is one of the most knowledgeable guys ive come across   

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

As far as I could tell, The timeframe on mogreps info was the end of the week

that has proved to be a portent for the evening Ukmo .... not long to find out if ecm will reflect that - ICON is often close to ec at days 5/6 so far from certain ! 

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

GFSP looking impressive RE warming towards end of run

gfsnh-10-384.png?12

Pretty much getting to the point where it initiates at day 10 now

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

To put to bed what was actually said by ‘Retron’ in relation to MOGREPS..

Ensemble mean for the southeast is circa 4c in the south east end of the week, after that nothing interesting from a cold perspective 

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
2 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Darren ( Retron ) from TWO has mentioned Mogreps - if you want an idea look at UKMO 144 as Darren has said out to 5 days its cold thereafter nothing great for coldies 

Yes mate . I know who rectron is on two , he is very knowledgable and I would trust him 100% . Cheers . 

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Early doors but ecm is like ukmo at 72 hours!!maybe ever so slightly further east!!

don't want it further east

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

How exactly.He doesn’t work for the meto ,and if he did I doubt he would be allowed to mention what mogreps is showing.Just someone else making up they have  pretended they have seen mogreps

Models have absolutely useless recently last week,from full on easterly,to easterly quickly being replaced,to now back to easterly again lol

Sorry Sleety I have followed Retron for years and whenever he has quoted mogreps he has been backed up sooner or later by the likes of Fergie or Paul Hudson both of whom do have access professionally.  I don't know if Retron has access professionally or buys it in but you do Retron a great disservice in the wording of your post.

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Yes mate . I know who rectron is on two , he is very knowledgable and I would trust him 100% . Cheers . 

Glad you do , I haven't a clue who Rectron is 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
9 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

How exactly.He doesn’t work for the meto ,and if he did I doubt he would be allowed to mention what mogreps is showing.Just someone else making up they have  pretended they have seen mogreps

Models have absolutely useless recently last week,from full on easterly,to easterly quickly being replaced,to now back to easterly again lol

Disgraceful assumption Sleety.

If you have ever been on Two forum you would feel very embaressed with that post matey.

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

Nervy times as the ECMWF rolls,  though at day 4 ECMWF very similar to UKMO

Edited by mulzy
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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
1 minute ago, Banbury said:

Glad you do , I haven't a clue who Rectron is 

Lol . Bloody phone . 

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

I didn’t know who Retron was,so apologies if he has some standing in the weather world.Anyway onto the ECM,maybe snow for everyone by the end of next week ,hoping ❄️ 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
4 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Darren ( Retron ) from TWO has mentioned Mogreps - if you want an idea look at UKMO 144 as Darren has said out to 5 days its cold thereafter nothing great for coldies 

In other words - be it kosher or not - it's just, as Old Bill would have said, much ado about nothing?

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Just now, shaky said:

Job done lol!!ecm is a beauty at 96 hours!!!

Yes it is shaky . 

A40F1CE4-B597-4295-81D1-DC87E67FC13B.png

18D50D75-F975-41B7-ABE7-CBBF6D4ED3E3.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

What MOGREPS shows beyond the end of the week isn't really here nor there, the models diverge at day 4 so expecting ensembles to know the pattern beyond day 7 is laughable, they might not be showing much excitement for coldies beyond day 7 but I don't think it matters either way.

The important part is that the cold on MOGREPS sticks around to the end of the week, given a few days ago we were looking at being mild before the end of the week that's a pretty sizeable shift and inspires a little more confidence in the Atlantic struggling against the block..

Really?  -  what exactly would you use ensembles for  then? you've stated that they are as useless as a chocolate fireguard beyond 240 before, you would not now trust them at D4-7, it beats me why you have a subscription to weatherbell then TBH?

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