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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)
  • Weather Preferences: Beginning with S ending with W ;)
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)
2 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Gfs is not very reliable for strat forecasts at that time frame, only from around 168h out does the forecast have any credibility. Every winter this signal for a warming is there at the end of a run

Reliable or not I think Mike is pointing out we are no longer at 384hr - it's moved forward toward 300hr mark and has first positive temps since GFS started toying with this idea. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
2 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Gfs is not very reliable for strat forecasts at that time frame, only from around 168h out does the forecast have any credibility. Every winter this signal for a warming is there at the end of a run

Think your not getting the point tho @ArHu3  the warming starts around day 10 . So it’s not right at the end but it carries on until the end . And it’s well advised by the clued up strat chaps .  

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

I would go a lot further than that - i've never seen a clear SSW bust at 240 on any model. the warmings at the end are always gone within a couple of runs if they have no credence.

But this has been showing up consistently, has steadily moved forward and is backed up by the background signals and musings from the most knowledgeable posters when it comes to strat developments.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

But this has been showing up consistently, has steadily moved forward and is backed up by the background signals and musings from the most knowledgeable posters when it comes to strat developments.

Yes - i know - thats my point.

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I would go a lot further than that - i've never seen a clear SSW bust at 240 on any model. the warmings at the end are always gone within a couple of runs if they have no credence.

Exactly 11 months ago, a warming is beginning to form at around +120h, which didn't materialize for over a month later

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=10&heure=12&jour=9&mois=1&annee=2018&archive=1&carte=1

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

A few posters referencing a great MOGREPS run ; who has seen it or where can it be viewed

It can’t be viewed Tim it’s a in house meto model . @Steve Murr posted earlier  , got it from a trusted source .

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
9 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

A few posters referencing a great MOGREPS run ; who has seen it or where can it be viewed

It can be viewed from Exeter.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Well even I was not daring to imagine that any model runs would make a move as big as the UKMO 12z has done this evening. If we actually go down that route, then the size of the preceding model errors (and ongoing from  GFS... we'll see about ECM) is ridiculous, and if we don't the size of this modelling error from UKMO is ridiculous.

So either way the models lose, but hopefully we can win - well, from the perspective of those wishing to escape the rainy weather at least!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
8 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Exactly 11 months ago, a warming is beginning to form at around +120h, which didn't materialize for over a month later

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=10&heure=12&jour=9&mois=1&annee=2018&archive=1&carte=1

 

I dont't think you're getting my point, that warming within 120 was a minor warming, this one now is getting close to a major warming.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

The major warming at the end of that run did verify, maybe not on the exact timeframe but im sure we had an SSW in February shortly afterwards.

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
15 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

It can’t be viewed Tim it’s a in house meto model . @Steve Murr posted earlier  , got it from a trusted source .

Ah, so very much hear say and no one actually knows lol. Since then NW members saying on Twitter what MOGREPS shows  Actual forecasts from Exeter meanwhile still have cold and dry until end of the week,  then rain preceded by some snow before Atlantic returns 

Edited by Tim Bland
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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

A swing back to a slightly cooler outlook. Ideally we want the 3rd low to go the same of the second then it would be game on. Still if it go the way shown on the GFS I have my next favorite weather "very windy"

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The major warming at the end of that run did verify, maybe not on the exact timeframe but im sure we had an SSW in February shortly afterwards.

Yes, you can see how that warming transpired here

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?jour=4&mois=2&annee=2018&heure=12&archive=1&mode=10&ech=6&runpara=0&carte=1

Still several days away from seeing how this one could potentially play out IMO

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
10 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Ah, so very much hear say and no one actually knows lol. Since then NW members saying on Twitter what MOGREPS shows  Actual forecasts from Exeter meanwhile still have cold and dry until end of the week,  then rain preceded by some snow before Atlantic returns 

It's from Retron on TWO and he's the person I would trust over any one else on the various forums.

You can take the mogreps info to the bank.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
10 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Yes, you can see how that warming transpired here

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?jour=4&mois=2&annee=2018&heure=12&archive=1&mode=10&ech=6&runpara=0&carte=1

Still several days away from seeing how this one could potentially play out IMO

The beauty of that was it had another go with some wave 2 this time, after the initial one, just to make absolutley sure!

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
8 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Ah, so very much hear say and no one actually knows lol. Since then NW members saying on Twitter what MOGREPS shows  Actual forecasts from Exeter meanwhile still have cold and dry until end of the week,  then rain preceded by some snow before Atlantic returns 

Indeed...Until someone lets me see the forecast, I'll be taking it with a pinch of salt...and an open mind!

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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Man
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Blizzards, Storms, Hot, Foggy - Infact everything
  • Location: Isle of Man

Historically its quite usual for the block to be underestimated , especially by the GFS. I must admit that it has been quite surprising to see so many throwing in the towel before the fight has even began !  Looking better and better for the end of the week, as the trend continues towards widespread snowfall, and the cold actually winning !!!   

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Indeed...Until someone lets me see the forecast, I'll be taking it with a pinch of salt...and an open mind!

Ed if it's sourced from Retron it's completely kosher.

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
15 minutes ago, Dave Kightley said:

I wonder if the UKMO would give a more a widespread snow event..

Unlikely - Would be largely dry, the Atlantic fronts barely make it into the UK to bring the PPN. Ironically the stronger block stops the widespread snow risk

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