The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

Huge differences between the GFS and UKMO at T96!!

UKMO

GFS

That's actually quite extraordinary..

This is crazy Dan . That is at day 4. When will this end ? 

[booferking]

Lol were is @Steve Murr

Edited December 9, 2018 by booferking

[Skullzrulerz]

I don't really see the excitement all of the sudden either the GFS or UKMO is going to be right and you have a think something will go down 

[SMU]

2 minutes ago, booferking said:

Lol were is @Steve Murr

Im here.....

 

BOOM to the UKMO

[MR EXTREMES]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

 

HmmMMm block still holding 144, heights into Greenland.

Yes indeed not the route I was expecting either.

But I'd be very careful because I've seen these end in disappointment sooner than shown on these charts.

Get another correction west tomorrow morning and evening then I'd definitely say game on.

[lorenzo]

Just another view of the Scandi block and the Atlantic vs Scandi battle... and then some reinforcements arrive - perfectly poised..

https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/Current/arctic/anim_EPV_0350.html

 

 

Edited December 9, 2018 by lorenzo

[nick sussex]

The GFS after a better start starts to implode .

The key is the upstream low exiting Newfoundland . The UKMO has a deeper feature which phases much earlier with the troughing to the west of the UK at T96 hrs.

The early phase stops the forward momentum of the upstream troughing and helps to pivot some of the energy away from the Scandi block .

If you follow both the UKMO and GFS you can clearly see between T72 hrs and T96 hrs the huge difference the phase timing makes .

[Met4Cast]

It's clear that the raging zonality that models were showing a couple of days ago, even to the extend that Easterly winds never even developed as completely gone. We're seeing a much stronger block, better disruption and the Atlantic looking increasingly likely to be shut out almost completely.. 

I'd be surprised if there was a widespread snow event next week, not because of milder air but because the fronts wont actually make it into the UK in the first place! Day 4 is FI, anything beyond day 4 should be taken about a seriously as a CFS day 50 chart..

[Derecho]

6 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

I don't really see the excitement all of the sudden either the GFS or UKMO is going to be right and you have a think something will go down 

With the UKMO and ECM against the GFS things have defintely taken a good turn though! The UKMO looks like as though it would have -5C uppers crossing the east coast and if dewpoints are low (with winds off the continent) then a surprise is most certainly possible if the Atlantic troughs disrupt.

EDIT: T120 has -6C line as far west as Wales, not bad!, still over eastern England at T144.

Edited December 9, 2018 by Quicksilver1989

[shaky]

What a star to the evening!!huge improvements on the gfs aswell!!whoever was hoping the gfs would go all the way right now must be having a laugh!!slowly slowly it should catch up to the ecm and ukmo!!

[Ice Day]

The UKMO 850's are in for 96 and 120.

  

Bit more to play out here if the UKMO is on the money!

[nick sussex]

Even with the GFS not building on it’s better start it’s still finding a bit more trough disruption at T120hrs.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS after a better start starts to implode .

The key is the upstream low exiting Newfoundland . The UKMO has a deeper feature which phases much earlier with the troughing to the west of the UK at T96 hrs.

The early phase stops the forward momentum of the upstream troughing and helps to pivot some of the energy away from the Scandi block .

If you follow both the UKMO and GFS you can clearly see between T72 hrs and T96 hrs the huge difference the phase timing makes .

To be honest, synoptically its ok, it wouln't be that bad if we already had entrentched cold, even the second low  at 120 would give a right dumping if there was coldER uppers ahead of it.

 

[northwestsnow]

Does the Atlantic actually even get in on ukmo?

 

[northwestsnow]

6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Im here.....

 

BOOM to the UKMO

mate i dont even think the Atalntic gets in on UKMO !!!

Cant believe me eyes 

im so excited i spelled Atlantic wrong lol

Edited December 9, 2018 by northwestsnow

[Met4Cast]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Does the Atlantic actually even get in on ukmo?

 

Nope..

You'd expect the UKMO to be right at day 4, though you'd expect the GFS to have a handle on day 4 too. If ECM sticks with it this evening then I'll start to get a bit more excited. UKMO/ECM vs GFS, I know where my money will be!

[carinthian]

13 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Real up grade this run at 120t. Would love to  see the 850mb flow temps.

There we have it. Cold air advected from the Northern European Plain at 120t . 

C

[MR EXTREMES]

7 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

Just another view of the Scandi block and the Atlantic vs Scandi battle... and then some reinforcements arrive - perfectly poised..

https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/Current/arctic/anim_EPV_0350.html

 

 

That's awesome animation of the PV looking good as well.

[nick sussex]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

To be honest, synoptically its ok, it wouln't be that bad if we already had entrentched cold, even the second low  at 120 would give a right dumping if there was coldER uppers ahead of it.

 

True , it doesn’t go completely off the rails but we want the UKMO solution . The big question is whether that could stop the Atlantic at day 7.

We still need a weakening of the low upstream at day 6 and the block even further west but you never know . If you compare last nights UKMO with tonights it’s a huge change.

[snowice]

Next week is a done deal? As they say in panto oh no it isn't

Edited December 9, 2018 by snowice

[MR EXTREMES]

Gem not bad either 

And the earlier JMA also agrees so it's not far of a full house.

[Stuie]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

True , it doesn’t go completely off the rails but we want the UKMO solution . The big question is whether that could stop the Atlantic at day 7.

We still need a weakening of the low upstream at day 6 and the block even further west but you never know . If you compare last nights UKMO with tonights it’s a huge change.

Not overly concerned at day 7, Nick, firm up on this week could be extremely interesting.

[Derecho]

UKMO at T144 is a cracker

We start seeing some WAA towards Greenland, key to keeping any blocking sustained. If the high strengthens then something similar to December 2009 wouldn't be out of the question. Best not get ahead of ourselves though.

[Frosty.]

As I've been saying, next week looks interesting, don't write this off coldies..there could be some nice surprises in store!

[MattStoke]

Hmm. GP said to expect the heights to our north east to put up a fight and to not be fooled by any output that shunts it away. Guy seems to have a crystal ball.