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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

A big switch back to cold from MOGREPS ens overnight & 'more' support for the ECM operational from the EPS ( more than yesterday )

In these scenarios the euros are always odds on favourites to be correct & the GFS come following about a day late ( & dollar short ) however of course once it a blue moon it could be correct-

EPS has 11cm as the max snow depth for london next week however the mean was probably nearer 3cm.

I think we still have another 24 / 48 hours of drama- just to add to the drama of the last 2 days-

What with the scandal high & all that tweetgate last night I need to sit down.....

Steve,

Where do get the info on mogreps?

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

From retron ( Darren ) Trusted source

So does that mean you expect gfs to stop being stubborn and join forces with the euros this evening!!if it does then i be pretty confident for the end of the coming week then!

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
20 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

A big switch back to cold from MOGREPS ens overnight & 'more' support for the ECM operational from the EPS ( more than yesterday )

In these scenarios the euros are always odds on favourites to be correct & the GFS come following about a day late ( & dollar short ) however of course once it a blue moon it could be correct-

EPS has 11cm as the max snow depth for london next week however the mean was probably nearer 3cm.

I think we still have another 24 / 48 hours of drama- just to add to the drama of the last 2 days-

What with the scandal high & all that tweetgate last night I need to sit down.....

Probably an ideal time to charge your phone, Steve.

EDIT: I take it you are only mentioning the switch on the Mogreps for this week and not further? Can`t be past this week shirley.

Edited by Stuie W
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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

I had to do a double take on that ecm op this morning - very encouraging! Add to this the positive news about mogreps going cold I think we can look forward to seeing upgrades on tonight's 12z runs - all being well!

Edited by blizzard81
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Hmmm - those eps clusters are not without interest as we approach Xmas ...... repeating patterns and all that ..... this assume the pattern ever gets convincingly east of the meridian in the first place .....

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Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham
  • Location: Cheltenham
22 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

A big switch back to cold from MOGREPS ens overnight & 'more' support for the ECM operational from the EPS ( more than yesterday )

In these scenarios the euros are always odds on favourites to be correct & the GFS come following about a day late ( & dollar short ) however of course once it a blue moon it could be correct-

EPS has 11cm as the max snow depth for london next week however the mean was probably nearer 3cm.

I think we still have another 24 / 48 hours of drama- just to add to the drama of the last 2 days-

What with the scandal high & all that tweetgate last night I need to sit down.....

What to do?

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Hmmm - those eps clusters are not without interest as we approach Xmas ...... repeating patterns and all that ..... this assume the pattern ever gets convincingly east of the meridian in the first place .....

Sounds positive Any chance of posting the clusters you refer to. 

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Only need the one (day 14)

111F8B0E-F4A5-4D1D-A94C-007616BD9298.thumb.jpeg.de8daa5eff2948f8a48db785845f145f.jpeg

Mmm. Is that the only cluster that shows the strong heights to the north east? 

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Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands

I'm dreaming of a White Christmas, just like the ones i have never known. Where the Sun is baking, treetops are green. But i do remember the snowflake in 2010.

I would totally sacrifice all Winter just to see a true White Christmas. Last few years seeing people in a t-shirt on Chrismas day just dosent feel right.

Models clearly have sniffed out a pattern change come the big day. All we need now is 15 days plain sailing model watching.

Noting can go wrong can it lol !!

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39 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Speaking of snow depth here's 00z ECM for London

Red line is the op blue line is the mean

2099102148_download(2).thumb.png.025ae15f266d45a6c96479e590731a97.png

Where can I find those snow depth charts please? I'd like to see if any snow is expected in either Cardiff or Swansea, I've a feeling the sea temperatures could still be too mild for any in my area (Porthcawl) (10-11C) 

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Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

A big switch back to cold from MOGREPS ens overnight & 'more' support for the ECM operational from the EPS ( more than yesterday )

In these scenarios the euros are always odds on favourites to be correct & the GFS come following about a day late ( & dollar short ) however of course once it a blue moon it could be correct-

EPS has 11cm as the max snow depth for london next week however the mean was probably nearer 3cm.

I think we still have another 24 / 48 hours of drama- just to add to the drama of the last 2 days-

What with the scandal high & all that tweetgate last night I need to sit down.....

Hopefully we start to see this from the GFS and so on 

 

Does anyone know John Hammond website as there was a email sent out regarding the SSW?

Edited by Skullzrulerz
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
5 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Hopefully we start to see this from the GFS and so on 

 

Does anyone know John Hammond website as there was a email sent out regrading the SSW?

3

Weather trending

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
28 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Mmm. Is that the only cluster that shows the strong heights to the north east? 

If one of the clusters is right, the others aren’t relevant ..........

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Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
19 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Hopefully we start to see this from the GFS and so on 

 

Does anyone know John Hammond website as there was a email sent out regrading the SSW?

regrading or regarding? Could be a crucial distinction in this context.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
30 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

If one of the clusters is right, the others aren’t relevant ..........

But, if they're all wrong?

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Strong warming event very evident on the FV3 6z, and warming still increasing at the end of the run, T384:

image.thumb.jpg.e55d14dbd6eb9b2afb4e8e6cc1d703fa.jpg

Consistently appearing on this model now, and given it is high resolution right through to day 16, I've been expecting it to lead on predicting this development.  

Once again, given recent runs, the 12 s will be interesting viewing, although it would be kind of nice if some things re next week could actually be settled one way or the other!

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
10 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

We have a battle on our hands folks, some of us could see SNOW in the next week or so..I'm really pleased with the early winter pattern, so often it's dire mild cr*p at this time of year but this feels different..although I'm technically drunk as i type this something feels different about coldies prospects this winter..fingers crossed!:drunk::santa-emoji:

Indeed Frosty, something exciting seems to be in the air for coldies coming up, 12z could be a mega run, fingers very crossed!:oldgood:

It's been a case of early Christmas drinks here too, last night and again today, an early Merry WHITE Christmas to every one, only 2 weeks to go. hic....:drunk::santa-emoji::drunk-emoji:

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Strong warming event very evident on the FV3 6z, and warming still increasing at the end of the run, T384:

image.thumb.jpg.e55d14dbd6eb9b2afb4e8e6cc1d703fa.jpg

Consistently appearing on this model now, and given it is high resolution right through to day 16, I've been expecting it to lead on predicting this development.  

Once again, given recent runs, the 12 s will be interesting viewing, although it would be kind of nice if some things re next week could actually be settled one way or the other!

That should give us two days of sleet darn sarf 

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

You can't discount one model but the GFS is normally the least accurate of the main models in such setups.It almost always blows up low pressure systems too much and blows away blocking high pressure too quickly. Doesn't necessarily mean it is wrong this time but one would have more faith in the other models in this setup.

Steve's post didn't to me read like he was completely discounting the GFS output anyway.

Edited by MattStoke
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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

I am keeping my expectations low but I think there is a fair chance the Scandi high may spring a little surprise. The ECM shouldn't be discounted and I remember in January 2013 the GFS was appalling. 

The Scandi high does need to be stronger but whilst the ECM shows something decent I'm not commiting to a mild or cold outcome yet in the short term. We will probably see the Atlantic influence return though in the next 5-10 days.

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