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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Man
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Blizzards, Storms, Hot, Foggy - Infact everything
  • Location: Isle of Man

Really like the way things have trended overnight. That block seems to be putting up more and more of a fight. ECM now showing an easterly over much of the country on Friday. If the trend continues then widespread snowfall is very much on the cards. Also it's looking increasingly good for cold weather around Christmas. The charts are beginning to get into a festive mood.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

As cold as the ECM op is this morning on the 850's (especially around the 15th) I'd give it more runs yet when you compare it to the ens

london_ecmsd850.png

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Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands

This is stressfull stuff so its clear as day the models are having a nightmare trying to predict the strength of the block and how much energy is going to go under or over as a conga line of lows try to encroach on the UK. I think we all know the Atlantic will win but theres definately some snow on offer although transient and still needs a slight correction West imo. Xmas looks good and at least we have a chance. Always best to have a ticket and we have one this year. People lets be nice to eachother its Christmas.

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Posted
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
2 hours ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Am I missing something, but would it not be better to get rid of the trough - block stalemate and just reset the pattern.

All I see is the UK stuck in no man's land, not enough cold for a convective easterly and not enough cold for frontal snow should the low barrel through. I don't really understand what people are getting excited about in the near term.

I agree I wonder how wet it could become and if flooding will be the story not flakes !

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

Don’t necessarily agree that a ‘removal’ of blocking and ‘re-set’ of the pattern is always a good thing. That last thing coldies would want is the PV re-organising and a raging jet stream and flat pattern. Not that that’s going to happen this time anyway with the various background signals and things going on. I’m just speaking generally.

Edited by MattStoke
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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
9 hours ago, HighPressure said:

I am going to make a prediction, not based on charts but purely on what seems to be a pattern. The cold will be showing on the charts just before Christmas for around New Year, 1st week in January. Maybe I a imaging it but it seems to me that Christmas is just a week or so too early nowadays.

    

I agree with you on that , I think patience is required , Id be surprised if we get a spell ( not snap) of cold weather 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

A westwards correction already showing up on the GFS 06  hrs run at T60 hrs.

Look our for the low exiting Newfoundland , that’s the one that develops more on the ECM and phases with troughing to the west , quicker phase is what you want to see.

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

A westwards correction already showing up on the GFS 06  hrs run at T60 hrs.

Jesus!!!!was just bout to say the same thing!!i still cant believe these corrections are happening so early on!!

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Just now, nick sussex said:

A westwards correction already showing up on the GFS 06  hrs run at T60 hrs.

Just about to say that, only by what, 100 miles but all adds up to being a Proclaimer...

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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.

Need it to correct about 700 miles to bring us all into the game!!!

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

Fires up this low somewhat more at T78. Less of an Iberian ridge.

 

gfs-0-78.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)

Any news on the 6z ICON?  For what it's worth!...

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
2 minutes ago, Banbury said:

If you catch it quick enough and flick from the 0z to the 6z there really isn't much difference if I'm being honest . 

Indeed - it is fairly similar to the 0z run and still quite a bit away from the 0z ECM.  You would guess the ECM would be more 'right' at day 4.  Time will tell as ever.

Edited by mulzy
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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

A westwards correction already showing up on the GFS 06  hrs run at T60 hrs.

Look our for the low exiting Newfoundland , that’s the one that develops more on the ECM and phases with troughing to the west , quicker phase is what you want to see.

And this would also mean that the GFS is following the ECM now and the ukmo from couple of days ago.

Been the story year in year out with the models blocks are very unpredictable and so are short waves.

It's a nail biter for sure.

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
4 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

And this would also mean that the GFS is following the ECM now and the ukmo from couple of days ago.

Been the story year in year out with the models blocks are very unpredictable and so are short waves.

It's a nail biter for sure.

After the early westward correction it just went back.to showing what it was on the 00z!!surely 12z this evening should sort this out!!dont think ecm will be right though its just a feeling ive got!!looks to good to be true in the way it backs that cold west across england!

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

As usual, the GFS 06Z has the cold air largely staying to our east; which is okay, as I tend to agree with BFTP, that the really cold air will arrive from the NNW-NNE, and not directly from the Continent...?

Netweather GFS Image

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
4 minutes ago, shaky said:

After the early westward correction it just went back.to showing what it was on the 00z!!surely 12z this evening should sort this out!!dont think ecm will be right though its just a feeling ive got!!looks to good to be true in the way it backs that cold west across england!

That was like watching paint dry. If it wasn`t for this potential (very slim now) battleground scenario you could easily not look at an op run for a week.

Edited by Stuie W
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