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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
7 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

 

Purga got there first!  GFS 0Z shows a more wintry picture first thing Christmas Day:

image.thumb.png.8acf68889e295c2f1b0486ec51f1982c.png  image.thumb.png.894308bdd43f35e494d8a13259478877.png

image.thumb.png.6b41637e3a531b69537eefef7aaa9cf4.png  image.thumb.png.98f296791e7e0d003c3c6368c85c4cbe.png

Thats a white Christmas for many!  Hope it doesn't disappear by tomorrow.....

 

 

It will do.

Like Santa, a +384 chart has never actually shown up.

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
14 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

It will do.

Like Santa, a +384 chart has never actually shown up.

Anyone recall the GFS runs up to Christmas Day 2004?

That showed a cold NWly flow way out in FI for the day and it more or less stuck with it right up to the day, itself. Remember montioring every single run and the excitement building up getting closer and closer. 

Edited by Weather-history
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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

I think that this non-easterly ship has sailed, all we are doing is hope casting for the UK to be sandwiched between the Atlantic and the cold. There is nothing coming from the east to suggest the block can retrogress west, in fact, all models show a fluid wave moving in the flow from the US forcing the NH profile east!. All that has happened is that the models have corrected the timing of the flow, the synoptic outcome remains the same, a brief colder upper air flow for the east with little of consequence apart from maybe a snow to rain event for higher ground when the Atlantic moves in. For the record at T192 no GEFS show the block in place with only one member showing residue heights to the north!

This current stalemate of a flat NH profile is bad for wave propagation and bad for any short-term meridional Atlantic building blocks. We really need wave attacks to finish off the strat and the forecast setup is not going to help long-term? Hopefully, we get the SSW sooner rather than later as the two misses this year suggest a repeating pattern is going to leave us hanging for cold and an SSW maybe if we are lucky, fulfill the obvious potential this Winter promises for the UK.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

EPS anomaly this morning at later stages looks much better then last few updates - higher pressure anomaly now indicated around GIN corridor just before Christmas, trending neutral anomalies ranging from western Russia as far west as eastern Germany, lets say trend is your friend

Cant post picture or I will get in trouble with @bluearmy 

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GFS is being very very consistent with its lows...

 

Okay so it blows them up and cant get the track nailed but we always think the GFS has a biased westerly favor (which it does) but its a master at picking Low pressure up albeit that it blows it up to come back down closer to the time.

 

It's the only model that really hasn't showed any cold options and only mild stormy ones.. 

 

This week holds zero interest re cold for me... Mild always wins out in this case there is literally hardly any cold out east.. You can thank the extremely warm summer and milder than average months just gone.

Edited by Surrey
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Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
13 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Anyone recall the GFS runs up to Christmas Day 2004?

That showed a cold NWly flow way out in FI for the day and it more or less stuck with it right up to the day, itself. Remember montioring every single run and the excitement building up getting closer and closer. 

I do. I was driving from London to Scotland on Christmas Eve and just as i turned up to my parents it starting snowed and we had a few inches over Christmas Day. 

I remember the forecasts before going for that quite a while out so yes it managed to hold true 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

It’s like musical chairs !

Now the UKMO has dumped last nights most progressive solution and the ECM has backed the pattern west .

Unfortunately the same problem remains later the lack of sufficient  trough disruption at day 6 .

Theres just too much energy upstream and unless someone can deflate that ASAP then today’s Euro improvements are just delaying the inevitable .

Looking at the De Bilt ensembles there are more colder solutions upto day ten than last night but these are still very much a minority .

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

Flat Northern Hemisphere profile? It is anything but. We wouldn’t have a Scandinavia high set to build if the profile was flat.

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

It’s like musical chairs !

Now the UKMO has dumped last nights most progressive solution and the ECM has backed the pattern west .

Unfortunately the same problem remains later the lack of sufficient  trough disruption at day 6 .

Theres just too much energy upstream and unless someone can deflate that ASAP then today’s Euro improvements are just delaying the inevitable .

I did mention last nights ukmo was completely out of sync!hopefully we get more trough disruption at 144 hours today!!the fact that we are actually talking about cold and snow and sliding lows is amazing in itself as just 48 hours ago it was pretty much doom and gloom!!now is the ecm an outlier at just 4 days out cause it brings the cold air from the east at just 96 hours or even earlier!surely cannot be wrong at such an early stage

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Just now, shaky said:

I did mention last nights ukmo was completely out of sync!hopefully we get more trough disruption at 144 hours today!!the fact that we are actually talking about cold and snow and sliding lows is amazing in itself as just 48 hours ago it was pretty much doom and gloom!!now is the ecm an outlier at just 4 days out cause it brings the cold air from the east at just 96 hours or even earlier!surely cannot be wrong at such an early stage

The mean looks okay at day 4 and seeing as the UKMO has now backtracked towards the ECM you’d think that the others would . The Euros both wrong at day 4 is very rare .

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Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
17 minutes ago, IDO said:

 

This current stalemate of a flat NH profile is bad for wave propagation and bad for any short-term meridional Atlantic building blocks. We really need wave attacks to finish off the strat and the forecast setup is not going to help long-term?

 

If helpful tropospheric precursor patterns are what you are looking for (and eventual wave propagation), in combination with the Aleutian low, then there are not many positions better to be in than having a Scandinavian high there...

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
8 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Flat Northern Hemisphere profile? It is anything but. We wouldn’t have a Scandinavia high set to build if the profile was flat.

Musing on D5 onwards, we all agree now that there is a push of heights from T24-T96. That is not what we are talking about, its the sustainability of any block and its westward ingress!

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
1 minute ago, IDO said:

Musing on D5 onwards, we all agree now that there is a push of heights from T24-T96. That is not what we are talking about, its the sustainability of any block and its westward ingress!

Yes but it just isn’t a flat profile ?‍♂️

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

this  is  for  the  big  day  !!!

gfs-2-384.png

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
8 minutes ago, IDO said:

Musing on D5 onwards, we all agree now that there is a push of heights from T24-T96. That is not what we are talking about, its the sustainability of any block and its westward ingress!

Looking at the de Bilt ensemble this morning about 20% of members keep a more or less easterly flow, the rest southwesterly

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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
6 minutes ago, tinybill said:

this  is  for  the  big  day  !!!

gfs-2-384.png

Yes.

Odd how FI is totally dismissed apart from when it comes a certain day of the year........

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
4 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

The kraken awakes. Matt is correct. No flat profile is evident. You're nothing if not predictable. Don't you get bored of doing this every winter? I tell you what go ahead and post a meaningless 384z gfs mean, I'll give you one for free. Thanks for a good laugh on a Sunday morning. 

Hi

I must misunderstand a meridional flow, I usually equate a flat pattern when the yellows stay mid-latitude, is that not the case?

Of course, you can get residue heights in the flow that remains relatively flat or Polar heights in a flat NH profile! I wasn't ruling that out, but my argument was about wave attacks and looking at the GEFS not really seeing consistent support for those yellows on the 500mb charts pushing north?

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
33 minutes ago, IDO said:

*edit. tl;dr

 

Ha ha! Perfect, thanks for more laughs. You're really good at this in a strange way.  I'll leave you to it mate, and everyone else will enjoy your posts for their pure entertainment value. 

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

Nice to see the ECM keeps the entertainment going on the 00Z, glad I polished my straws.

 

ECM0-120.gif

ECM0-144.gif

gfs-2-138.png

Edited by Stuie W
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