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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: Continental:Warm dry summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
2 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

GFS 00z out to 120, certainly a lot less progressive than the 18z at 126 was. Doubt it will make too much difference as the Atlantic looks poised to plow in through. Will watch up to 144 then go back asleep!

I'll say though, much better at 132, almost primed for an undercut. 

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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
5 minutes ago, CanadaAl said:

I'll say though, much better at 132, almost primed for an undercut. 

Absolutely, out to 144 now and a far better Chart. The lows become flabbier and weaker, the high remains stronger. Not a million miles away from being a cracking chart. Entering the realms of FI now, so I’ve seen enough now for sweet dreams. Hopefully ECM joins in later on!

Edited by Rocheydub
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Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: Continental:Warm dry summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
1 minute ago, Rocheydub said:

Absolutely, out to 144 now and a far better Chart. The lows become flabbier and weaker, the high remains stronger. Not a million miles away from being a cracking chart. Entering the realms of FI now, so I’ve seen enough now!

And the Atlantic never truly wins even at T156. Here i was about to right off the scandi high.

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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.

Deepest FI  

A3BFBEB9-D346-46B1-BBC6-6F30BCAC49B5.thumb.png.6cda4d085d2506e7ab803f11153bc970.png

Take it or leave it. 

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

Happy Sunday everyone. Yesterday's 12z UKMO must have been a bit of an outlier. The block is back at strength on the 00z but the old GFS is a very different picture. GEM maintains the block more like the UKMO though. Still much to be resolved. 

UW144-21 (1).gif

UW144-7.gif

gfs-0-144.png

gfs-1-144.png

gem-0-144 (1).png

gem-1-144.png

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Posted
  • Location: North East
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder , Lightning , Snow , Blizzards
  • Location: North East

They thought it was all over .. not quite yet 

BFD43703-07C5-48B8-B678-F7B75F399E14.jpeg

Edited by BornFromTheVoid
.Removed off-topic quote
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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

ECM going down same route as 00z UKMO but block even stronger

ECM1-144.gif

UW144-21 (1).gif

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

Oh no you don't! No aria for you just yet fat lady. 

tenor (3).gif

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

Usual caveats but I would like this as starting point. earlier in the run the ecm will be of interest to some in favoured locations. 

9A5DABB1-DCF8-4AD4-BA76-741DA15C39BF.png

EB79EAC9-F498-418F-A781-D8A030284B31.png

1CE7913D-8F46-44A9-8F7F-5CEA7ADF67C5.png

90D26373-E808-43F0-8E88-398D8EBF6A4C.png

Edited by That ECM
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
35 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Am I missing something, but would it not be better to get rid of the trough - block stalemate and just reset the pattern.

All I see is the UK stuck in no man's land, not enough cold for a convective easterly and not enough cold for frontal snow should the low barrel through. I don't really understand what people are getting excited about in the near term.

horrible setup, GFS looks especially wet, temps on Friday could reach 11 degrees, Thursday is a write off

FAX looks better though, perhaps a drier day on Thursday

Modele UKMO - Carte FAX Bracknell - Pression et fronts

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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill

When the GFS is still showing a >5C spread in 850 temps for my locale  just 4 days out it amply illustrates just how uncertain things are at the moment. Oh, and I'll happily take the FV3/controls run up to Xmas please. 

636230227_graphe3_1000___2.7397_57.265_(1).thumb.gif.70b1799630dcf6db0b6ffc94794f61b3.gif

Edited by Ravelin
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Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl

GFS (P) 0Z gives us a FI prediction for first thing Christmas morning:

image.thumb.png.d04d09ef7f026864aaa2f74fd6825f18.png  image.thumb.png.a4b06b0587fd94ee58e728d7d03c235e.png

image.thumb.png.5f89c4b4307129aab644077a4f691b78.png  image.thumb.png.378f19dac658d2dac7c270de7f399339.png

It would be a calm, settled but possibly cloudy start, cold but dry everywhere.  In the absence of any snow I would take this over a wet and windy Christmas every time.  Obviously plenty of changes to come in the next few days but this outcome would not be the worst we could hope for.

Edited by Sky Full
.
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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
26 minutes ago, snowice said:

No its clearly not all over next week and this morning runs show that. The block is stronger on 00z. Yesterday's comment that next week is a done deal was premature! 

 

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

ECM not too shabby either this morning Thurs / Fri

image.thumb.png.a02ce16ff4c3d31792fda87ec33ada5c.pngimage.thumb.png.467ae20d352b8ea99ad1c3351793a503.pngimage.thumb.png.c4fa8b339cd59fd63f4185f6f8549517.png

image.thumb.png.97c01e6fa42b58f123aaa4dc914923a8.pngimage.thumb.png.e30e5294f058926ac93d93c2e083103a.png

Edited by Purga
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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
Just now, Purga said:

ECM not to shabby either this morning Thurs / Fri

image.thumb.png.a02ce16ff4c3d31792fda87ec33ada5c.pngimage.thumb.png.467ae20d352b8ea99ad1c3351793a503.pngimage.thumb.png.c4fa8b339cd59fd63f4185f6f8549517.png

image.thumb.png.97c01e6fa42b58f123aaa4dc914923a8.pngimage.thumb.png.e30e5294f058926ac93d93c2e083103a.png

Certainly looking more interesting in the reliable range which I put at about 4days atm.

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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

In  the shorter term, strongly agree with post on the other page, can't understand the excitement of the block holding out a day or so longer leaving us in a southwesterly airflow as per ukmo day 6. Synoptically it might look good but it's not doing us any favours. We have been here many times before, watching winter days ebb away as the Atlantic battles the block which is too far east to be of any use to the vast majority of the uk. The sooner the Atlantic pushes through the better  to give us a chance of something akin to the end of the gfs run.

 

Ukmo day 6

 

UKMOPEU00_144_1-3.png

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
27 minutes ago, snowice said:

No its clearly not all over next week and this morning runs show that. The block is stronger on 00z. Yesterday's comment that next week is a done deal was premature! 

Yes, I agree with you on that one. The high to the NE not yet formed but as the latest fax below at 84t  shows the front moving across from Ireland makes painfully slow progress as its comes up against what appears to a continental air flow. Still time for battle ground scenario to develop in the period 84-120 T. However the big models still show Atlantic progression of some type.

C

PPVL89.jpg

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