The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

[weirpig]

8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I think we should actually rename it the Scandal Block lol...

Roll on the 18z.... for a christmas pub run special-

Bloody phone  the same happened last week  I texted my mate that he could repay the money he owes me anually  and it spelt it out anally  strangely he paid me back all in one go 

[Seasonality]

3 minutes ago, Paul said:

For those who may not have seen it, Nick's blog from earlier on is well worth a read - he's had an in depth look at the potential for colder weather through the rest of the month:

Any Cold & Wintry Weather On The Horizon As We Head To The Festive Period?

 

Nice segue @Paul and to build on that blog my advice to people is to treat December as a month in the astronomical sense in terms of seasons, that is that Winter doesn't start until the solstice. Treating the first two thirds of December as Autumn makes more sense and reduces unrealistic expectations imo. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Bloody phone  the same happened last week  I texted my mate that he could repay the money he owes me anually  and it spelt it out anally  strangely he paid me back all in one go 

don't get that with my ace phone

[Frosty.]

Looking at tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean there is deeper cold flirting close to the east next week..could yet be a very interesting period coming up with the first Battleground of hopefully many this winter!..I didn't get where I am today by giving up on cold potential!

Edited December 8, 2018 by Frosty.

[snowray]

Just been reading Nicks winter blog, well done Nick, very good, lots to look forward to.

 

I was really worried when I saw the UKMO, convinced myself that ECM was going to follow suite, big relief the ECM tonight in the end, hopefully 18z will follow suite. 

[swfc]

5 minutes ago, snowray said:

Just been reading Nicks winter blog, well done Nick, very good, lots to look forward to.

 

I was really worried when I saw the UKMO, convinced myself that ECM was going to follow suite, big relief the ECM tonight in the end, hopefully 18z will follow suite. 

It has?? the Atlantic steams threw!!!

[draztik]

1 minute ago, swfc said:

It has?? the Atlantic steams threw!!!

yep - was going to ask the same thing... ecm doesnt look much better. I suspect folk are sometimes looking at different charts.

Edited December 8, 2018 by draztik

[CanadaAl]

1 minute ago, draztik said:

yep - was going to ask the same thing... ecm doesnt look much better. I suspect folk are sometimes looking at different charts.

I'm also wondering if it's folks are focusing on near-term evolution as apposed to later on. 

[swfc]

3 minutes ago, draztik said:

yep - was going to ask the same thing... ecm doesnt look much better. I suspect folk are sometimes looking at different charts.

The Atlantic will win out on ECM.ive zero idea what people are looking at tbh

The hunt moves NNw!!

[Eskimo]

2 minutes ago, swfc said:

The Atlantic will win out on ECM.ive zero idea what people are looking at tbh

The hunt moves NNw!!

Considering we have had upgrades, significant upgrades in fact within the 120h timeframe, how can you take anything post 120h seriously?

[Snowman.]

5 minutes ago, swfc said:

The Atlantic will win out on ECM.ive zero idea what people are looking at tbh

The hunt moves NNw!!

The breakdown is what people are looking at. Chance of a snow event along the leading edge. It's what's being discussed quite a bit not very hard to miss..

 

Edited December 8, 2018 by Snowman.

[swfc]

6 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

The breakdown is what people are looking at. Chance of a snow event along the leading edge. It's what's being discussed quite a bit not very hard to miss..

 

There is know breakdown yet? The area of low pressure hasn't formed yet.bet you diamonds tho the Atlantic will blow threw.look to the NNW for a change

[swfc]

12 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Considering we have had upgrades, significant upgrades in fact within the 120h timeframe, how can you take anything post 120h seriously?

Because the jet stream has to go somewhere.high to the east and to the ESB.forcing will send the jet se.pressure into Greenland!!

[Nick F]

I don't think there is too much doubt that Atlantic mobility with milder and unsettled weather will eventually win out by next weekend and probably lasting through to at least the weekend before Christmas. However, a brief battle looks increasingly possible later this coming new week, involving some marginal snowfall potential, as Atlantic frontal systems interact with colder and drier continental air trying to spread west against these slowing fronts. GFS op and para, so far, has not been keen to show snow away from high ground in the  north. However, next Thursday still a long, long way off in forecasting such detail as if and where it may snow in such a marginal set-up, we may not have a better idea until 24-36hr out. So not worth fretting over for a few days, but the potential is there given EC has been keen on it for a 3 or so runs now.

Edited December 8, 2018 by Nick F

[That ECM]

8 minutes ago, swfc said:

There is know breakdown yet? The area of low pressure hasn't formed yet.bet you diamonds tho the Atlantic will blow threw.look to the NNW for a change

I don’t think many are questioning if the Atlantic will break through, it’s if the will be some snow for favoured areas before it does.  ^^^ as nick has put eloquently.

Edited December 8, 2018 by That ECM

[jules216]

looking at the EPS ensemble mean 500mb it is quite comical how persistent is the anomaly for low pressure south west of Ireland, it is basically unmovable between 13 and 21 st December, yet everywhere else on the hemisphere pressure anomalies tend to shuffle a bit, I have been hearing on this thread from teleconnective experts saying how important it is that the EL Nino pattern establishes. Yet during La Nina in December at least the azores high is more enhanced and some times gives us more north westerlies or northerlies, but this quasi stationary lows behind more meridional pattern only end up propping the Euro high by time and west based NAO, if you look at teleconnection charts it may show -AO or -NAO, but it is not going to bring much of a cold if we do not get rid of this cut of low. One thing that is probably not doing us any favors and  is consistently overlooked are unfavorable SST and lack of tripole in north atlantic.  Even UKMO in their 16-31 day forecast were advocating settled spell mid December and it is looking that they got this horribly wrong. Although they mentioned this will  gradually change to unsettled and breezier conditions, where is this settled spell? A ratio of 1 settled day and 6 unsettled! 

If you remember @Tamara mentioned this in her earlier post that this is one of the realistic options going forward with west based -NAO under EL Nino conditions

Edited December 8, 2018 by jules216

[Mike Poole]

ICON 18z T120 here compared to 12z at same time:

Edited December 8, 2018 by Mike Poole

[ALL ABOARD]

9 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ICON 18z T120 here compared to 12z at same time:

Trough distruption beginning to rear its head? 

[MattStoke]

10 minutes ago, jules216 said:

looking at the EPS ensemble mean 500mb it is quite comical how persistent is the anomaly for low pressure south west of Ireland, it is basically unmovable between 13 and 21 st December, yet everywhere else on the hemisphere pressure anomalies tend to shuffle a bit, I have been hearing on this thread from teleconnective experts saying how important it is that the EL Nino pattern establishes. Yet during La Nina in December at least the azores high is more enhanced and some times gives us more north westerlies or northerlies, but this quasi stationary lows behind more meridional pattern only end up propping the Euro high by time and west based NAO, if you look at teleconnection charts it may show -AO or -NAO, but it is not going to bring much of a cold if we do not get rid of this cut of low. One thing that is probably not doing us any favors and  is consistently overlooked are unfavorable SST and lack of tripole in north atlantic.  Even UKMO in their 16-31 day forecast were advocating settled spell mid December and it is looking that they got this horribly wrong. Although they mentioned this will  gradually change to unsettled and breezier conditions, where is this settled spell? A ratio of 1 settled day and 6 unsettled! 

If you remember @Tamara mentioned this in her earlier post that this is one of the realistic options going forward with west based -NAO under EL Nino conditions

My understanding is that the second half of El Nino winters tend to see blocking high pressure better positioned for cold conditions to affect the UK. That along with strat warming episodes and a possible SSW late December/early January should mean the second half of this winter brings a higher probability of significant cold for our part of the globe. Unfortunately, it means we have to sit through a generally unsettled December. The current and upcoming displacement of the PV may also be enhancing the Atlantic flow for us.

That's my understanding from my basic knowledge. Could be wrong.

[JeffC]

1 hour ago, weirpig said:

Bloody phone  the same happened last week  I texted my mate that he could repay the money he owes me anually  and it spelt it out anally  strangely he paid me back all in one go 

Maybe he didn't like your ring tone....

[Weathizard]

Don’t like this GFS run at 84, maybe over analysing but there’s a slight eastwards shift and the low to the north west is more developed and exerting much more pressure hence the Scandinavian high is being weakened before it even establishes

Lets see how this unfolds

Edited December 8, 2018 by Weathizard

[Weathizard]

More trough disruption than the UKM but I’m afraid this definitely looks like a move towards the dreaded UKMO solution

[weirpig]

Nasty feature at 144h 

[Snowman.]

1 hour ago, swfc said:

There is know breakdown yet? The area of low pressure hasn't formed yet.bet you diamonds tho the Atlantic will blow threw.look to the NNW for a change

We know it will break though we're trying to figure out HOW.

[blizzard81]

It really does feel like the models have been teasing and toying with our emotions these last few days. Nevermind, onto the next battle. Chins up - the winter is young.