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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted
1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

And equally wrong!  ☺️

Quite 

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Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted

T240, looking forward, the vortex well away from home, the US almost balmy with +4 uppers the coldest.

 

ECH1-240.png

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Froze were the Days Accomplished

Froze were the Days

Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
Posted

Potential there again after ecm day 10 (like a stuck needle)...seen charts like that before go cold shortly after BUT again the fly in the ointment as another developing depressionECM1-240.thumb.gif.e92e9c93ed5b0ac200394a75e15ddf62.gif off the Eastern Seaboard (relentless).

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Dorsetbred Maestro

Dorsetbred

Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

.....and here's the first decent snow depth chart of the winter:

image.thumb.png.74954c39cf4a49ed6a6a6822c8404a28.png

Of course, everyone here knows it won't happen exactly like that.      Will it?

It's always good to see the sarf coast is not involved in this prediction! I do think it will be a while before we see anything of the whiter shade of pale appearing here, but we are heading in the right direction.

Edited by Dorsetbred
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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted
21 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

.....and here's the first decent snow depth chart of the winter:

image.thumb.png.74954c39cf4a49ed6a6a6822c8404a28.png

Of course, everyone here knows it won't happen exactly like that.      Will it?

Check which run that is from (bottom left) 12z is a downgrade esp for the south ...

944CFFE1-9195-4A4F-B802-F7C210B40237.jpeg

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CanadaAl Enthusiast

CanadaAl

Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: Continental:Warm dry summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
Posted
3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Check which run that is from (bottom left) 12z is a downgrade esp for the south ...

944CFFE1-9195-4A4F-B802-F7C210B40237.jpeg

Well it's for midnight on Saturday the 15th. Chances are the south would have started warming up. 12 hours earlier and it's probably looking like bigger totals in the south, 

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
  • Popular Post
Posted
2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

12z is a downgrade esp for the south ...

No such thing as a downgrades for our part of the world.Even rain is considered an upgrade.

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
Just now, Mapantz said:

No such thing as a downgrades for our part of the world.Even rain is considered an upgrade.

depends on preference, a dry chart to me would be an upgrade, like EC and GFS for Thursday

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
15 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Looking very interesting Thursday a chance of snow as a front moves in from west and colder air moves in From east what happens after that still up in air could we see the front stall and move back west ..

4CC2126C-D431-41F3-9C4E-822A9D79CF50.png

This is something that happened quite often back in the 80's. The Atlantic front made inroads into the spine of the country only to be pushed back by the scandi high. I haven't seen that happen for donkey's years. Well overdue

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Popular Post
Posted

Potentially exciting knife-edge stuff next week, if the atlantic influence is being overestimated, it could be very thrilling..and so early in the season!..let's hope this will set the tone for the next 3 / 4 months!!❄️

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Radiating Dendrite Experienced

Radiating Dendrite

Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
Posted

Guys, those ECM snow depth charts have been proven over and over again to be pure dog poo!

I still think we will be the wrong side of marginal, especially given sea temps.

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted
8 minutes ago, CanadaAl said:

Well it's for midnight on Saturday the 15th. Chances are the south would have started warming up. 12 hours earlier and it's probably looking like bigger totals in the south, 

That is the peak when moisture moves in. See below for 12hrs earlier

@Daniel Smith I post what I see, I don’t post for popularity or for likes. I’ve posted the last 2 runs ECM snow depth charts with much excitement if you look back, so by posting tonight’s I’m giving a balanced view. 

E46F9641-C607-4665-9556-9C1DC5EA0E7E.jpeg

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Potentially exciting knife-edge stuff next week, if the atlantic influence is being overestimated, it could be very thrilling..and so early in the season!..let's hope this will set the tone for the next 3 / 4 months!!❄️

Absolutely Frosty...as long as there's enough blocking around, to stall the Atlantic systems, there'll be opportunities knocking aplenty.

And I mean that most sincerely folks!

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booferking Veteran

booferking

Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
Posted
52 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

We will see! 20th December, remember the date, check the charts!

In the nearer time, the ECM looks an upgrade for snow later this week surely? 

Please tell more 20th December..

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lassie23 Maestro

lassie23

Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
Posted
8 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Guys, those ECM snow depth charts have been proven over and over again to be pure dog poo!

I still think we will be the wrong side of marginal, especially given sea temps.

looks like a sleet fest lol

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

So how well does that ECM T144 chart stack up against the ensembles, here's the chart, Euro view, knife-edge 

image.thumb.jpg.c3bc740e967d2e36daf42079f969e42f.jpg

Heres the ensemble mean and spread at same time:

 

image.thumb.jpg.3c0a8707e26cddc39a7a38747e9243c5.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.0ab42b5f474d032a7f5fe4865c6538c9.jpg

Atlantic not barrelling through, but I'm struck by he spread. So little uncertainty except for to our SSW. Interesting to see the clusters tonight for sure.

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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted

Feel I should point out that I'm a different Matt, in case I get lynched the next time I post 

I think some transient, marginal snow is possible late next week but anything before Christmas is just going to be a bonus. For some time late December onwards has looked the best hope for significant cold.

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weirpig Maestro

weirpig

Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
Posted (edited)

Not sure how anyone can discount anything when the scandal block hasn't formed yet  and the potential slider low  is still a twinkle in the weather models eye.

Edited by Paul
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Mark wheeler Maestro

Mark wheeler

Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
Posted

Fascinating watching at the moment , exicited as normal about prospects for the coming winter , at least it’s not full on Atlantic onslaught we are witnessing run after run , A white Christmas would be nice for once , right I’m off to view today’s Navgem as it always gives me a laugh. Have fun all.

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Paul Maestro

Paul

Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Author
Posted (edited)

And there's the reason we keep posts which consist solely of tweets from others out of here, out of context snippets often don't serve any real use, and as we've seen, can just create hassle. 

All the posts (inc the original) have gone now, so can we get back to discussing the models please.

Edited by Paul
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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Not sure how anyone can discount anything when the scandal block hasn't formed yet  and the potential slider low  is still a twinkle in the weather models eye 

I think we should actually rename it the Scandal Block lol...

Roll on the 18z.... for a christmas pub run special-

Edited by Paul
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matt111 Maestro

matt111

Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Not sure how anyone can discount anything when the scandal block hasn't formed yet  and the potential slider low  is still a twinkle in the weather models eye 

The scandal of the disappearing scandi block... or is it?

Edited by Paul
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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted (edited)

so what have we learnt from todays model output? nothing really as its still all up in the air..  in other news i really do think that tomorrow is the D day for this cold spell if its going to happen. lets just remember its only the 8th of December not the 8th March then winter really would be over wouldnt it.

Edited by Guest
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Paul Maestro

Paul

Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Author
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Posted

For those who may not have seen it, Nick's blog from earlier on is well worth a read - he's had an in depth look at the potential for colder weather through the rest of the month:

Any Cold & Wintry Weather On The Horizon As We Head To The Festive Period?

 

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