The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

[Seasonality]

Lol at everyone posting the same chart! 

[Weathizard]

Atlantic hits a trump wall on this run, really intruiging to see how this develops. Also worth remembering with a continental flow like that and heavier PPN the magic -5 850’s aren’t always required.

[Stuie]

1 minute ago, Seasonality said:

Lol at everyone posting the same chart! 

Dog eat dog chart posting world mate

[Tim Bland]

2 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Nice bit of cold air nudging the east of the UK. Good for the Kent and East Anglia crew. 

Cold but dry though? I’d rather gamble at chance of the snowy jackpot? 

[Stuie]

And we will stop there with the ECM, nothing more to see.

[Tim Bland]

[SMU]

Just now, Stuie W said:

And we will stop there with the ECM, nothing more to see.

Yep no point in worrying about 168 if the transition & model change is happening at 120-

JMA dropping in pretty good @120

[snowray]

7 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

You best edit to say chalk and cheese with UKMO mate, not previous run.

Yup, just noticed that, cheers for pointing it out.

 

Also lovely T144, battleground me thinks, by T168 the Atlantic comes through but thats a long way off. FI is at T96 now by the look of things.

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Cold but dry though? I’d rather gamble at chance of the snowy jackpot? 

I think most of us are factoring in some further 'corrections' on the models, and that by T0 the cold will be further west by a couple hundred miles maybe.  Let the trend be your friend, they used to say on here...

[Stuie]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Cold but dry though? I’d rather gamble at chance of the snowy jackpot? 

Fine margins, Tim. Yes 6hr difference but at this range, still in the equation.

[Sky Full]

50 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Whatever the individual operational runs are showing there's a Battleground set to develop next week between the atlantic / scandi block with fronts struggling to push east into some cold air..recipe for rain to turn to sleet / wet snow!!..very good to see this so early in winter!!

Yay!  Frosty's back!  Now I KNOW it's definitely winter and it's gonna SNOW!

[Man With Beard]

6 hours ago, Easton Luna Boys said:

Audacious comment. Be hopeful for sure, but NEVER expect anything

We will see! 20th December, remember the date, check the charts!

In the nearer time, the ECM looks an upgrade for snow later this week surely? 

[BlackburnChris]

Never seen a transition like it... at +144 you have increasingly Cold air backing West . 24 hours later it's all moved 1000 Miles East .. Don't have much confidence in the later stages of ECM

[MR EXTREMES]

There's that heights building up to Greenland again Christmas looking cold I reckon.

[Sky Full]

.....and here's the first decent snow depth chart of the winter:

Of course, everyone here knows it won't happen exactly like that.      Will it?

[CanadaAl]

1 minute ago, BlackburnChris said:

Never seen a transition like it... at +144 you have increasingly Cold air backing West . 24 hours later it's all moved 1000 Miles East .. Don't have much confidence in the later stages of ECM

We really won't know until that block sets up shop. Could be 48hrs out before the models really have it pinned. 

[Leo97t]

I'm also thinking there could be a cold spell just before Christmas. Nothing spectacular just a bit of snow and cold days. Height rise definitely over greenland

[Stuie]

1 minute ago, BlackburnChris said:

Never seen a transition like it... at +144 you have increasingly Cold air backing West . 24 hours later it's all moved 1000 Miles East .. Don't have much confidence in the later stages of ECM

There is no confidence at that range, Chris. That`s what people class as  `Fantasy Island` as you are looking for trends not answers, in this case not a great trend but no doubt it will be different tomorrow, either positive or negative.

[Eskimo]

2 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

.....and here's the first decent snow depth chart of the winter:

Of course, everyone here knows it won't happen exactly like that.      Will it?

I bet those in Warwickshire will be thinking otherwise

Edited December 8, 2018 by PerfectStorm

[swfc]

Guys chill out its only weather I'm not happy, in fact I'm quite sad! Nobody died.just give it a few days.look NNW all good

[Stuie]

3 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

.....and here's the first decent snow depth chart of the winter:

Of course, everyone here knows it won't happen exactly like that.      Will it?

That is the 00Z chart, tonight`s will look different.

[bluearmy]

That system piling northeast day 6/7 is the problem ...... time for that feature to change .........

[Scandinavian High.]

Looking very interesting Thursday a chance of snow as a front moves in from west and colder air moves in From east what happens after that still up in air could we see the front stall and move back west ..

[Mike Poole]

8 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

That is the 00Z chart, tonight`s will look different.

And equally wrong!  

[Methuselah]

9 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

There is no confidence at that range, Chris. That`s what people class as  `Fantasy Island` as you are looking for trends not answers, in this case not a great trend but no doubt it will be different tomorrow, either positive or negative.

Aye. It just adds more confusion to the already high level of uncertainty, resulting in even more anxiety...