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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

Models out so far , and in terms of trough disruption and favourable phase at the key timeframe .

GFS

GEM

ARPEGE

 

Pants phase !

Satans love child aka UKMO

 

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Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted
Just now, nick sussex said:

Models out so far , and in terms of trough disruption and favourable phase at the key timeframe .

GFS

GEM

ARPEGE

 

Pants phase !

Satans love child aka UKMO

 

GEM and Arpege? Blimey not those straws.

FV3 ever so slightly east at T84, bit of energy out of the southern LP, looks like it will phase.

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Bristawl Si Maestro

Bristawl Si

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
Posted (edited)
37 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

gfseu-0-216.png?12

Those heights across Southern Europe are an absolute bane..

 

Will they shift much this Winter? Hasnt the Spanish equiv of our Meto predicted a dry winter for Spain which is indicative of a Euro High in situ for the Winter?

Currently in Fuerteventura where we have clear skies, sun and shade temps around 22/23c last few days. Same time last year it was cool(17c) and showery. Locals here complaining that last few Winters here have got progressively cooler, so they're hopeful of Spanish meto winter prediction.

Edited by Bristle boy
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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted
2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Models out so far , and in terms of trough disruption and favourable phase at the key timeframe .

GFS

GEM

ARPEGE

 

Pants phase !

Satans love child aka UKMO

 

Its weird cos the ukmo looks better and more amplified than gfs at 72 hours!!i really do think the ukmo has gone off on one tonight!!especially if ecm goes the same way as gfs!!

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted
3 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

39 members online so I take it all faith is in the UKMO outlook then. Might as well it`s never wrong.

Let`s see what the ECM churns out. Not looking for much of an upgrade, the same or slightly better will do but if it back tracks a bit I hope it isn`t too gloomy in here.

The thing is tho it was wrong this morning at t96 and t120 . So just maybe it’s wrong tonight and it switches back on the 00z run . Unlikely but you never no .

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted
Just now, Stuie W said:

GEM and Arpege? Blimey not those straws.

FV3 ever so slightly east at T84, bit of energy out of the southern LP, looks like it will phase.

I’ve gone to emergency code red straw clutching ! If it hadn’t been for the misery model tonight would have started okay . Thankfully Arsenal scraped a win so my mood has stabilized !

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Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

I’ve gone to emergency code red straw clutching ! If it hadn’t been for the misery model tonight would have started okay . Thankfully Arsenal scraped a win so my mood has stabilized !

Well I am a Spur`s fan so this is going down hill faster than Franz Klamer...

FV3 has definitely taken some energy out of the LP on this run.

gfs-0-102.png

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, shaky said:

Its weird cos the ukmo looks better and more amplified than gfs at 72 hours!!i really do think the ukmo has gone off on one tonight!!especially if ecm goes the same way as gfs!!

I’d have rather the GFS had pulled that run out not the UKMO. Yes it looked fine at T72 hrs then hit the buffers .

Looking at the GEFS the UKMO has little support , indeed it looks like just 2 out of 20 members are anything close to it at T120hrs . 

Edited by nick sussex
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Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted (edited)

T126, FV3 doesn`t spawn the secondary LP to the South. Cold still similar to previous run.

gfs-0-126.png

EDIT:

Much flatter at T138 regarding the cold, no 850  spike.

 

gfs-1-138.png

Edited by Stuie W
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E17boy Seasoned

E17boy

Posted
Posted

Hi people good evening

Hope you all are ok and enjoying the weekend. Just had one of those 15 minutes bouts of rain just pass over here in Walthamstow East London the sky seems to have cleared a bit but no doubt more rain is on the way.

the mood on here is not the best today and there's no reason for the surprise in that, going by the outputs. I did say in my last post yesterday that my instincts were that we may get a few days of calmer weather, but thereafter the Atlantic will not be too far away. As for the High over Scandinavia yes to some extent it is holding on but unfortunately I don't think the Siberian express has got the signal to head our way yet. It's hard for me to say this and it's not what we are here looking for but the reality truly is that the Atlantic has got far too much energy with these low pressure systems and although the Scandinavian high will slow them down unfortunately it will be us ending up with a deluge of just cold rain. 

I know bless everyone we are trying to see some kind of light out of this and any upgrades will enlighten our hearts to me at this moment of time the light I see is faint. The situation could well turn around but the Atlantic I think this time looks like having the upper hand. 

Anither thing to note  the heights to our far south and southwest pop up as we go through this week and that is another thing we don't want. 

So to sum up what I can see is beginning of next week we may get  one or two drier days before it turns wet and miserable and not forgetting some parts may see a lot of rain. Temperatures don't look as mild as they have been in the past few days so it will feel cooler. This situation could well change and if the colder air from the east does have any effect I think some high ground may see wintriness. However a wider scale snow event has a low probability with my thoughts. As I said I am no expert but I am just trying to focus on reality. 

It is hard but we need to hold our patience it may take a while and this ride may still have more downs, but I think our dreams of a white wonderland will happen how long and when is another queastion and I will leave that to the experts to make presumptions. Thanks everyone for all the lovely posts on here and those who share their knowledge. 

The wait for the Siberian Express continues

wishibg you all a lovely evening

kind regards

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

No-one's reached for the mighty BOM yet, so it can't be all that bad?:shok:??

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Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted

All I can make of the GFSP is that even that has early/mid changes so god knows what the ECM is going to do.

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Chesil View Accomplished

Chesil View

Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
Posted

People getting down about the Ukmo run but that's the Raw run Isn,t? We don,t get to see any ensembles. For all we know it could be a mild outlier.

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ArHu3 Rising Star

ArHu3

Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
Posted
2 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

People getting down about the Ukmo run but that's the Raw run Isn,t? We don,t get to see any ensembles. For all we know it could be a mild outlier.

On the meteociel site itself, not the app, you can view the Fax Bracknell charts which I think have some human input based on ensemble and stuff behind them. They are kind of hard to read though 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Whatever the individual operational runs are showing there's a Battleground set to develop next week between the atlantic / scandi block with fronts struggling to push east into some cold air..recipe for rain to turn to sleet / wet snow!!..very good to see this so early in winter!!:santa-emoji:

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Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Posted
42 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

39 members online so I take it all faith is in the UKMO outlook then. Might as well it`s never wrong.

Let`s see what the ECM churns out. Not looking for much of an upgrade, the same or slightly better will do but if it back tracks a bit I hope it isn`t too gloomy in here.

Never wrong? Seriously? A NWP algorithm never wrong? I hope you're being ironic. 

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Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted
1 minute ago, Seasonality said:

Never wrong? Seriously? A NWP algorithm never wrong? I hope you're being ironic. 

Don`t fret, very ironic.

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Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Posted
1 minute ago, Stuie W said:

Don`t fret, very ironic.

Phew, you had me worried. I needed a stiff drink after reading that 

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Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Posted
16 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

On the meteociel site itself, not the app, you can view the Fax Bracknell charts which I think have some human input based on ensemble and stuff behind them. They are kind of hard to read though 

Exactly right @ArHu3 the Fax charts are created by the human experts who tweak the UKMO output based on their high level knowledge and experience. 

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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted
1 minute ago, MR EXTREMES said:

Let's pray to the ECM for relief from this nail biting epic episode.

If its as amplified as gfs at 72 hoirs then hoepfully it should be a good run!!

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Iceaxecrampon Veteran

Iceaxecrampon

Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
Posted

The 12Z FI :drunk-emoji:

h500slp.thumb.png.485a66e7326913e7ac6cc1916ceb68c6.png

Take it or leave (bin) it

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