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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Well, the phrase of today is going to be 'westward shift'.  On the GFS out to 72 and there is one, probably about 100 miles movement west (12z on the left)

gfsnh-0-72.png?12  gfsnh-0-78.png?6

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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs

UKMO 120 doesn’t look any better to me6F582723-46CA-4F62-A9B6-1748AAFEEF68.thumb.gif.cf23341dafc5996cff5612941f7609ab.gif

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Ukmo is a horrible dissapointment!!!knew as soon as gfs looks good ukmo would go the other way!

Yep always seems to do that . It’s so annoying.

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

UKMO 12z at T144:

image.thumb.jpg.703aef4c815c03d8de20e3ae0221a71d.jpg

Led the way so far, but as the other models get on board it does this, couldn't make it up!

If ecm stays on the same page then i think ukmo has gone off one to be fair!!the differences between the 12z and 00z are laughable!!

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Posted
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

UKMO 12z at T144:

image.thumb.jpg.703aef4c815c03d8de20e3ae0221a71d.jpg

Led the way so far, but as the other models get on board it does this, couldn't make it up!

this seems to happen so often with Easterly evolutions , unless you have cross model agreement simultaneously proceed with caution.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

Mildly concerning that UKMO... I’ve been pretty vocal before about how it picks up trends other models follow then it drops it as the others agree, quite remarkable how many times it does it. Very frustrating, we need a good ECM that goes with the GFS tonight.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Ukmo is a horrible dissapointment!!!knew as soon as gfs looks good ukmo would go the other way!

Yeah, its not a good run..

In fact its horrible.

Seems to be just too much umph in the Atlantic to allow for a block to hold..

That said its one run, so we will see what EC shows..

(If i'm honest though, Dec is shaping up to be a shocker, already had nothing but rain and looks like there might be plenty more to come)..

 

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

Not saying for the cold sake of it but I’ve never thought much of UKMO it may be second best at verification stats but for our corner of the world tends to very inconsistent at only d5/d6..

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

Not saying for the cold sake of it but I’ve never thought much of UKMO it may be second best at verification stats but for our corner of the world tends to very inconsistent at only d5/d6..

Supposedly for western Europe gem is verification king at days  9/10, don't know about 5/6 though 

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