The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

[Johnp]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Starting to get very concerned about the warming, its gonna displace the SPV back where we don't want it and then fizzle out before theres any chance of destroying it.

Wow, have you got the lotto numbers too?

[feb1991blizzard]

Nice warming on the GEFS(p) though.

[blizzard81]

The obligatory Xmas warm up lol. 

[Man With Beard]

I'm still hoping Canadian height rises as shown for D12 will push east with time - but even if they don't, I expect at very least a consequential plunge of cold air into the NW Atlantic will inspire a period of colder incoming lows as Christmas approaches 

[Mike Poole]

This one looks the biggest yet on FV3 at T384:

Peak warming actually earlier. T348:

Interesting runs this morning. Will be fascinating to see how the Scandi high fares on this afternoons output.  

Edited December 8, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Frosty_wsm]

40 minutes ago, booferking said:

Lol para brings big snow event Friday whole of Ireland/UK.. 

Does it? Does the south west not exist to you then lol

[Easton Luna Boys]

1 hour ago, MattStoke said:

They don't need to be very low with winds from the south east.

Hmmm, not true I'm afraid. 850s are marginal and there is still a lot of milder, humid air in the mix. SSTs are still above average due to latent heat from the exceptional summer. Cooler yes, but don't believe the winter wonderland hyperbole and don't expect anything exceptional. Depend upon it.

 

[Frosty.]

Just checked the models, I'm seeing lots of trough disruption so far today..could be a very interesting period coming up as the atlantic does battle with the scandi block..some of us, especially higher up could see some wintry ppn..even some snow!

[Easton Luna Boys]

8 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I'm still hoping Canadian height rises as shown for D12 will push east with time - but even if they don't, I expect at very least a consequential plunge of cold air into the NW Atlantic will inspire a period of colder incoming lows as Christmas approaches 

Audacious comment. Be hopeful for sure, but NEVER expect anything

[bluearmy]

13 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I'm still hoping Canadian height rises as shown for D12 will push east with time - but even if they don't, I expect at very least a consequential plunge of cold air into the NW Atlantic will inspire a period of colder incoming lows as Christmas approaches 

There is no appetite for the mean upper ridge ne Canada to drive anomalous cold uppers into the nw Atlantic  ....that Canadian ridge is initially driven by warm air headed north rather than being a cold high that one might expect to see up there 

the clusters show a big spread of solutions in the extended period .............. kitchen sink et all 

[Stuie]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

There is no appetite for the mean upper ridge ne Canada to drive anomalous cold uppers into the nw Atlantic  ....that Canadian ridge is initially driven by warm air headed north rather than being a cold high that one might expect to see up there 

the clusters show a big spread of solutions in the extended period .............. kitchen sink et all 

Brilliant, at least we can hope to tap into something.

[snowray]

44 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

infact this showed a few runs ago and also couple of days ago i said about the gem being like the jma.

but the gem has dropped that idea.

the problem we have is the intense heights to our south and southwest.

with what was said yesterday correct me if im wrong the atmosphere is more la nina than el nino.

the modoki el nino and low solar activity and at the time still an easterly qbo which of coarse is now a westerly qbo all this was very exciting stuff going forwards this winter.

problem is the la nina upper atmosphere that seems to be a thorn in winters side.

but the stratospheric warming forecast looks very interesting and if it happens is really going to crank up winter into january.

could we get an earlier record breaking warming event its possible.

although my canadian warming event i was looking for is unlikely to happen.

although i feel downbeat about next week and the scandi heights and that annoyingly strong azores high i cant see anything really exciting yet except further north.

but also looking at the jet stream forecast there is a relaxation of the powered up jet streak maybe allowing a reshuffle of heights.

so although on the fence there are still positives there for a cold end to winter.

still has the feel of 2009/2010 just about.

but im staying on the fence until i at least see wintry charts into the 96hr time frame maybe even earlier in these easterly situations.

i remember a few years ago the ukmo and an easterly that utterly failed very nearly went to the wire the ecm and ukmo were full steam ahead then it was gone and it was wet and stormy with pv returning in strength and winter being dominated by westerly flow although at times cold northwesterly flow.

i think it was 2014.

it was a very sad moment in net weather forum history lol.

but this year has more in favour than that year.

In my experience once you miss a decent chance of an easterly or northerly, ie cold air grinds to a halt at Lowestoft and heads south, along with piles of snow down the north sea with none of it coming inland in the UK, well it can be a long wait until something else of interest turns up, particularly when the Atlantic fires up before Christmas and before you know it its early February. Hopefully this winter will be different, the signs are all there.

 

Looking at the GFS high res model, the lower dew points are not too far away, just to our south east over Benelux but over us and to our south we are still looking at mainly 2s and 3s, still time though for this to improve of course, long may the upgrades continue, 12z UKMO and ECM really important today.

[booferking]

13 minutes ago, Smartie said:

Does it? Does the south west not exist to you then lol

Bit soar 95% of the country then take it your the 5% but guess what snow depth charts are worth the weight in kangaroo dung...

[Iceaxecrampon]

41 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I believe there is a bigger chance of Santa actually coming down your chimney on the evening of the 24th than that chart verifying ! 

Lol. 

Yes FI FI FI but on the 06z there’s stuff all else to get worked into a froth about. 

At present but one day.....

Iain

[Iceaxecrampon]

44 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I believe there is a bigger chance of Santa actually coming down your chimney on the evening of the 24th than that chart verifying ! 

......we don’t have a chimney in any case. Was difficult  explaining that one to the kids. 

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

......we don’t have a chimney in any case. Was difficult  explaining that one to the kids. 

And even then, there’s still a bigger chance of Santa coming down your non existent chimney ........

[Duane S.]

Another nudge west from the 06z. At this rate we will soon be bemoaning Brittany and the Channel Isles getting a massive dumping, whilst we stay bone dry!

Only jesting,I don't see further corrections quite to that extent with this set up

Edited December 8, 2018 by s4lancia

[Methuselah]

49 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I believe there is a bigger chance of Santa actually coming down your chimney on the evening of the 24th than that chart verifying ! 

But...Isn't posting charts that'll never verify the very bread-and-butter of this thread, Blue...?

[Frosty.]

14 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

But...Isn't posting charts that'll never verify the very bread-and-butter of this thread, Blue...?

As CJ used to say..I didn't get where I am today by posting charts that will verify..it's fun though!

[Paul_1978]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Nice warming on the GEFS(p) though.

If I had £1 for everytime I saw a T+384 warm strat chart on here I’d have taken early retirement by now. 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Paul_1978 said:

If I had £1 for everytime I saw a T+384 warm strat chart on here I’d have taken early retirement by now. 

Yes, stacks of them, Feb 2018, Dec / Jan 2013, Jan 2012, Jan 2009.

[Frosty_wsm]

1 hour ago, booferking said:

Bit soar 95% of the country then take it your the 5% but guess what snow depth charts are worth the weight in kangaroo dung...

No not soar, just making a valid point, you're post was inaccurate & I don't  see the need for your somewhat childish reply either. 

Edit : oh and maybe you missed the lol at the end of my reply as well, as I'm a little bit of tounge & cheek. Jeez I like snow as much as the next person who browses this thread but I ain't going to lose any sleep if I see snow or not, I have far more in life to worry about that but having you call me a bit soar kinda makes me think you in fact would be if you missed out on the white stuff. 

Edited December 8, 2018 by Smartie

[Mike Poole]

9 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

If I had £1 for everytime I saw a T+384 warm strat chart on here I’d have taken early retirement by now. 

Think this is missing the point.  If an SSW is going to happen it will show up at this range.  Yes ones show up that don't verify, but it is legitimate to watch these on the models at this 16 days range.  More so than an easterly at day 8, if I'm honest.

@Frosty. Your CJ 'quote' on the previous page sums up this thread perfectly, great to see you back posting!

Edited December 8, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Iceaxecrampon]

34 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

And even then, there’s still a bigger chance of Santa coming down your non existent chimney ........

One day FI will bite yours and a few others ar $es.

 

[Methuselah]

Surprise, surprise...after December 21, the GEFS op is an outlier. Who'd a thunk it!