The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

[Stuie]

3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

They don't need to be very low with winds from the south east.

True

 

[bluearmy]

If you’re north of the midlands with good elevation and east of the  M6 then I reckon you should be preparing your nose shaped carrots .....if the blocking strengthens significantly then you can always post them down here ! 

[MattStoke]

10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

If you’re north of the midlands with good elevation and east of the  M6 then I reckon you should be preparing your nose shaped carrots .....if the blocking strengthens significantly then you can always post them down here ! 

You're only saying that because of my location

Edited December 8, 2018 by MattStoke

[nick sussex]

After the first shortwave which ejects from the upstream low what happens after that is still subject to change.

Currently the GFS barrels the next low east with no disruption .The ECM has that runner low and is less progressive .

In these set ups you often develop a momentum if the Scandi block is underestimated with the pattern continuing to back further west and south .

We should have a better idea tonight if that’s going to happen .

At this point next week is still up in the air , could get whiter or conversely turn into an anti-climax .

Edited December 8, 2018 by nick sussex

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

You're only saying that because of my username

You’re only just east of the M6 ......

gfsp is another jog west by day 3 (or more amplified would be the correct statement )

Edited December 8, 2018 by bluearmy

[ICE COLD]

This warming is getting closer . Starting around T264 now . 

[The Northern Ramper]

12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

If you’re north of the midlands with good elevation and east of the  M6 then I reckon you should be preparing your nose shaped carrots .....if the blocking strengthens significantly then you can always post them down here ! 

I’ve always rated your predictions 

[MattStoke]

Significant strat warming continues to be brought forward and intensify. 

[ICE COLD]

By T336 we are fully on fire . 

[Stuie]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

After the first shortwave which ejects from the upstream low what happens after that is still subject to change.

Currently the GFS barrels the next low east with no disruption .The ECM has that runner low and is less progressive .

In these set ups you often develop a momentum if the Scandi block is underestimated with the pattern continuing to back further west and south .

We should have a better idea tonight if that’s going to happen .

At this point next week is still up in the air , could get whiter or conversely turn into an anti-climax .

That LP skirting across the South on Sunday has been modeled for days, needs a watch too.

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, Ramp said:

I’ve always rated your predictions 

I was thinking above 200m

[feb1991blizzard]

Here comes the @BLAST FROM THE PAST@Roger J Smith  signal

[booferking]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Here comes the @BLAST FROM THE PAST@Roger J Smith  signal

Odds must be dropping for white Christmas for some..

[shaky]

Arpege is further west at just 72 hours so is the gfs parallel!!

[Stuie]

Cold gathering in Europe, this damn Elf hat is starting to get on my nerves though.

Edited December 8, 2018 by Stuie W

[snowray]

Anyone notice the JMA 06z, out to T84, what a turnaround.

Even compared to its 00z run its a big upgrade!

 

Edit, here are the uppers, cold about 100 miles further west.

Edited December 8, 2018 by snowray

[edinburgh_1992]

44 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

If you’re north of the midlands with good elevation and east of the  M6 then I reckon you should be preparing your nose shaped carrots .....if the blocking strengthens significantly then you can always post them down here ! 

BBC weather and metoffice are showing a lot of sleet next week in Edinburgh, temperatures around 2-3C during precipitation. Will be interesting, all we need is a slight further west-shift and that will be changed to snow. 

[booferking]

Lol para brings big snow event Friday whole of Ireland/UK.. 

[Methuselah]

06Z GFS looking interesting @ T+348:

And even more so @ T+384:

So, again, the week immediately after Xmas could be exciting?

[MR EXTREMES]

11 minutes ago, snowray said:

Anyone notice the JMA 06z, out to T84, what a turnaround.

Even compared to its 00z run its a big upgrade!

 

Edit, here are the uppers, cold about 100 miles further west.

infact this showed a few runs ago and also couple of days ago i said about the gem being like the jma.

but the gem has dropped that idea.

the problem we have is the intense heights to our south and southwest.

with what was said yesterday correct me if im wrong the atmosphere is more la nina than el nino.

the modoki el nino and low solar activity and at the time still an easterly qbo which of coarse is now a westerly qbo all this was very exciting stuff going forwards this winter.

problem is the la nina upper atmosphere that seems to be a thorn in winters side.

but the stratospheric warming forecast looks very interesting and if it happens is really going to crank up winter into january.

could we get an earlier record breaking warming event its possible.

although my canadian warming event i was looking for is unlikely to happen.

although i feel downbeat about next week and the scandi heights and that annoyingly strong azores high i cant see anything really exciting yet except further north.

but also looking at the jet stream forecast there is a relaxation of the powered up jet streak maybe allowing a reshuffle of heights.

so although on the fence there are still positives there for a cold end to winter.

still has the feel of 2009/2010 just about.

but im staying on the fence until i at least see wintry charts into the 96hr time frame maybe even earlier in these easterly situations.

i remember a few years ago the ukmo and an easterly that utterly failed very nearly went to the wire the ecm and ukmo were full steam ahead then it was gone and it was wet and stormy with pv returning in strength and winter being dominated by westerly flow although at times cold northwesterly flow.

i think it was 2014.

it was a very sad moment in net weather forum history lol.

but this year has more in favour than that year.

[The Northern Ramper]

46 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I was thinking above 200m

Doh

[Iceaxecrampon]

1 hour ago, Weathizard said:

Never underestimate the Scandi high, it’s remarkable how it’s destroying that low in the Atlantic and growing run on run. THOU SHALL NOT PASS.

The 6z is awfully close but not quite there, it’s still a big shift west

Yes - LP after LP batted away.

[Iceaxecrampon]

Nothing exciting at Sea Level on the GFS - strong LP's held off by the emerging Scandi.

FI has the Polar floodgates possibly opening on 24-12-18 

.....but it's FI

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Nothing exciting at Sea Level on the GFS - strong LP's held off by the emerging Scandi.

FI has the Polar floodgates possibly opening on 24-12-18 

.....but it's FI

I believe there is a bigger chance of Santa actually coming down your chimney on the evening of the 24th than that chart verifying ! 

[feb1991blizzard]

Starting to get very concerned about the warming, its gonna displace the SPV back where we don't want it and then fizzle out before theres any chance of destroying it.