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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

UKMO let it snow

7594515A-FF8E-46DA-AED7-920E287C53BF.thumb.png.9e3077b06cb9c03c04b538b9fa5f381c.png

Credit Steve you said the Models would overplay the Atlantic lows and Jet stream and the block would be more robust. Yep a snow day according to UKMO.

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Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset

Cracking GFS FL and the 500hpa charts at the end are something else too.. Pick where you want high pressure too its coming up from everywhere! 

Edited by Dave Kightley
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Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.

 as I have said on my post on Thursday let’s not give up on next week and deliver a verdict after the 12 hours runs on Friday and see where we are  and I have to say so far so good the models have certainly turned them self around although it’s not the best but beggars can’t be chooses.  any way I still find the ECMWF guilty for putting all met weather member through all that stress.

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Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
16 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Christmas Eve just came into view on the 00z. And very much for fun only, it would be ding dong merrily on high, and those dreaming of a white Christmas would just have to look out the window. :santa-emoji::reindeer-emoji:

gfs-0-384 (1).png

gfs-1-384 (1).png

gfs-2-384.png

gfs-16-384 (3).png

If 2/3 of the country see snow falling Christmas Eve..Ding Dong Merrily!!

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
1 minute ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

 

Ohhh no, if this comes off the Mother-in-Law might not be able to make it down for Christmas !!!

 

she  would  be down on  her broom stick

 

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Again as was spoken about yesterday looking to the NNW for me is the way forward . heights moving towards Greenland via the ESB later this month.

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
1 hour ago, Seasonality said:

Christmas Eve just came into view on the 00z. And very much for fun only, it would be ding dong merrily on high, and those dreaming of a white Christmas would just have to look out the window. :santa-emoji:

gfs-16-384 (3).png

Good example of the famous M4 snow boundary and it won't be of interest in the media no snow in London

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
18 minutes ago, stewfox said:

Good example of the famous M4 snow boundary and it won't be of interest in the media no snow in London

Yes that snow boundary is quite impressive in how often it seems to be the dividing line. 

Coincidence or did the planners deliberately use that route? Coincidence I'd say... 

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