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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The Scandi high is a lot stronger on the FV3 and Control at 126

small upgrades make a huge difference.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Definate trend through the day - heights to the east putting up more of a resistance to the trough - conversely it is shown as being much sharper and prone to disruption - will we see the trend continue? even odds I say.. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Is low pressure ever going to get past the Meridian?

i will highlight this post in a few days.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
9 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Is low pressure ever going to get past the Meridian?

i will highlight this post in a few days.

What i mean is look at the control for instance

18z first at 228 then the 12z 240,that Scandi high is making some dent to the inroads of the atlantic.

gensnh-0-1-228.thumb.png.4799a82492e613dd3ae41282a5cf77c5.pnggensnh-0-1-240.thumb.png.bd169f685c050de17a2700f74146576c.png

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (60m)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Brighton (60m)
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

A thoroughly enjoyable reaf today.. no bickering just good honest opinion and debate..

Great idea by the mods having this thread..

Seconded. I haven't contributed but fully enjoyed reading along

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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
7 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

schadenfreude

Love it! I'm guessing you're an Arsenal fan!

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
2 hours ago, Catacol said:

Personal view - NWP take snapshots of readings and then applies algorithms based climatological norms to interpret the way ahead. I would imagine by now that the best computer minds have applied machine learning to the process - so as we move forward NWP will learn.

But currently I suspect there is a reliance on normalised processes. And this is where the human ability to interpret can have an edge.

And the mountain torque charts have updated. As expected a steep climb has begun

1328317340_gltaum.90day(1).thumb.gif.0be9dd1f6f84dcb167263720f1398bfb.gif

Cue - move away from the apparent passage towards a Nina-like state in the atlantic and a return to a more Nino meridional outlook. Humans 1, NWP 0.

= Scandy fights back. (At least a bit....because expected processes would still say this phase next week is not going to produce full on goods. Need a bit more time for developments to work their way through for that....)

Gfs is open source so you could dive through the code to find out how it is done. Going through the gfs changelog however seems that there is an ocean temperature model, which through an interface inputs into gfs. And from what I understood the models don't use climatological norms but try to emulate the physical processes that make the climate 

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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
4 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Ohhh couldn’t be further from the truth. COYS.

Ahhh haaaahhhh! Brilliant. COYG!

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Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands

Have to admit I thought it was all over but gradually you could see the Atlantic making less inroads and the Scandi block up for a fight. Cracking runs and if there are more upgrades in a few hours we could see a snowy end to next week. Well needed after seeing Villa get robbed by a blatent hand of god from West Brom. Great read very enjoyable and some very informative posts wich enable us all to learn. Thankyou all

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Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: Continental:Warm dry summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom

More slight upgrades on 0Z. Better angle on the low and better geopotential heights over scandi. Will be a slow road but a turnaround could still happen.

Edit: Also more encouraging to see higher thicknesses over Greenland once those Lows slowly get a move on. Much more promising than a couple days back. 

Edited by CanadaAl
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Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset

The low is alot shallower on the gfs 00z upto 132h and the block is about 20 per cent bigger too

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Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset

That low is not moving... really annoying! Just stays to the west of us ruining it!.. likely to draw up milder air from the south west until it clears... move God damn it

Edited by Dave Kightley
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Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: Continental:Warm dry summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
4 minutes ago, Dave Kightley said:

That low is not moving... really annoying! Just stays to the west of us ruining it!.. likely to draw up milder air from the south west until it clears... move God damn it

Unfortunately one of the caveats of the high being too weak to allow the low to slide underneath but still too strong to allow it through. Let's just be thankful its not stuck over the UK

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Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset

That low is ruining an opportunity... hate rain even more now!

Edited by Dave Kightley
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

UKMO again better - looks quite shallow the low coming at 120-144 which may allow for evaporative cooling..

The problem is we get the trough disruption but there is still a big chunk of energy left where we don't really want it..

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Gfs 00z looks like cold zonality..

Well in about 400h it may pay off. 216h that same feature is still there... 

Edited by Dave Kightley
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Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands

Not much diffrence to my untrained eye there is slightly more amplification but ridge looks a tad east to me. Close but more upgrades needed. Greenland looks exposed

 

npsh500(2).thumb.png.d3f50f129c1692868d5a1070c432f277.pngnpsh500.thumb.png.4a5338e385374674c2b9d9b5385f3923.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
2 minutes ago, Dave Kightley said:

288h Look at the GFS!

The pv looks in all kinds of trouble i predict fun and games chrismas week.

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