Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Trends have been good tonight..

Flat Zonal train cancelled until further notice..

I would imagine scottish sky industry will be liking 18z..

Edited by northwestsnow
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

It's staggering around trying to get some form of composure whilst the opposition draws their arm ready to deliver the knockout blow.

And here comes the knockout punch . 

2431CF96-C8B6-4B24-9E3E-AFDDA68F9F1B.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Flooding would be a major concern if 18z gfs was to happen. PV shredded and Heights build  in FInthough, should get interesting from here ... 

4C3950FE-45D2-4C3C-804F-6CC709F40E0A.png

95C6C1A1-9058-40D5-85C4-FD8DCE6EF25C.png

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Flooding would be a major concern if 18z gfs was to happen. PV shredded and Heights build  in FInthough, should get interesting from here ... 

4C3950FE-45D2-4C3C-804F-6CC709F40E0A.png

95C6C1A1-9058-40D5-85C4-FD8DCE6EF25C.png

Almost like Nov 2009

Meanwhile the strat goes warmer than the 12z

gfsnh-10-372.png?18

Edited by CreweCold
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

End of run, knock out punch, phrase 'coming out of both ends', springs to mind, vortex death throes, GFS T384

image.thumb.jpg.dd782d876cf202bd013b12663555b7e2.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.c9ba418349405e16ef9ee5f15a7836c8.jpg

This is the moment. We've witnessed the destruction of the vortex 16 days in the future. Hope we witness it again on future runs! 

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Just now, evans1892 said:

Another toasty looking strat in the latter stages of the run... Improvements in the past 12 hours, but we definitely need more!

Yes

i like the way it is being tossed about

tempresult_umq4.thumb.gif.f591939c57e3d0395ba58e1c2f24aa45.gif

latest 10hpa from jma

pole10_nh.thumb.gif.08364b01eebd625e4d771952495fd4d8.gif

an uptick there now.

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Re - the strat, we can see now the temperaturess are likely to get to near 0c, factor  in a little bit of GFS bias and maybe -10, also though that they probably havent peaked on any run yet and the fact that we might not even need too high a temperature to produce an SSW as the vortex isn't exactly strong now due to multiple minor strat warmings, we just need to see the high temps getting right into the heart of the pole preventing the vortex shifting back over there anytime soon after and bingo, we would have then bought ourselves a decent shot of getting a stonking trop pattern in for the new year.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
  • Like 6
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Re - the strat, we can see now the temperaturess are likely to get to near 0c, factor  in a little bit of GFS bias and maybe -10, also though that they probably havent peaked on any run yet and the fact that we might not even need too high a temperature to produce an SSW as the vortex isn't exactly strong now due to multiple minor strat warmings, we just need to see the high temps getting right into the heart of the pole preventing the vortex shifting back over there anytime soon after and bingo, we would have then bought ourselves a decent shot of getting a stonking trop pattern in for the new year.

They never get close to the levels they are predicted to at 16 days out ! 

someone with time will look back at the feb ssw and see what verified and what was modelled two weeks earlier ...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Re - the strat, we can see now the temperaturess are likely to get to near 0c, factor  in a little bit of GFS bias and maybe -10, also though that they probably havent peaked on any run yet and the fact that we might not even need to high a temperature to produce an SSW as the vortex isn't exactly strong now due to multiple minor strat warmings, we just need to see the high temps getting right into the heart of the pole preventing the vortex shifting back over there anytime soon after and bingo, we would have then bought ourselves a decent shot of getting a stonking trop pattern in for the new year.

You are right Feb,it's just displacing it over the atlantic sector of which it is no good there and will fire the jet  up even more,we need it to punch into the core to split it than displace it but still early days yet!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

They never get close to the levels they are predicted to at 16 days out ! 

someone with time will look back at the feb ssw and see what verified and what was modelled two weeks earlier ...

Sorry - thats what i meant - that if they are 0 they might be -10c, that feb SSW did  have some ridiculous temperatures in it though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

You are right Feb,it's just displacing it over the atlantic sector of which it is no good there and will fire the jet  up even more,we need it to punch into the core to split it than displace it but still early days yet!

It might be like Jan 13 where we displace it first but it just self destroys afterwards and fails to re-form properly.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

FV3 quite a bit more amplified with the block at just T96 here compared with 12z at same time...

image.thumb.jpg.60bb0dcdb5677a2a07a44cd72ac1e089.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.aae340757048306310a6f9807b8affe8.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

NB 18z - we are trying to close off a low like the cold 'straggler' runs in the 12z suite

63FA73ED-00EE-452F-B59E-72267ECE60D4.thumb.jpeg.f5c6811c03864779c2753d0c47003515.jpeg6D8EF908-6785-424E-9C34-1D6676FD400F.thumb.png.29c7af6cd9bcdaa5b22e15b68962479f.png

 

Gfs control going the same way steve!!could be  a belter of a 00z suite tomorrow!!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It might be like Jan 13 where we displace it first but it just self destroys afterwards and fails to re-form properly.

Yes and i remembered what followed

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

NB 18z - we are trying to close off a low like the cold 'straggler' runs in the 12z suite

63FA73ED-00EE-452F-B59E-72267ECE60D4.thumb.jpeg.f5c6811c03864779c2753d0c47003515.jpeg6D8EF908-6785-424E-9C34-1D6676FD400F.thumb.png.29c7af6cd9bcdaa5b22e15b68962479f.png

 

How dare a short wave drama actually help us. This is not how E'ly's are supposed to go!!!

 

There seems to be a broader shift more favourably for the coldies now. Need more shifts now.... Ooooerrr Matron!

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...