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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

This run has a touch of the Feb 5th 1996's about it, just shows you though, the surface pressure isobars actually look better suited to a battleground event on the 18z GFS but of course in 1996 we already had entrenched cold.

archivesnh-1996-2-6-0-0.png?

Exactly, no contest al all

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9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

This run has a touch of the Feb 5th 1996's about it, just shows you though, the surface pressure isobars actually look better suited to a battleground event on the 18z GFS but of course in 1996 we already had entrenched cold.

archivesnh-1996-2-6-0-0.png?

Bitter memories for NW kent....

I actually still have that weather forecast ( JK ) on Tape somewhere - just 22 years ago

His words - the weather is going off the rails this week !

489B82A6-13B9-4B50-B660-ABFAE7379B3F.thumb.jpeg.af6255d9b71919b99d8b4bf1c4a78dd0.jpeg

 

Edited by Steve Murr
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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

At 180 and the high is starting to get shifted off east, but the continuing theme is for the PV to stay disorganised.  If the SSW does happen then that should be the knockout blow for the Vortex.

gfsnh-0-180.png?18

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

Worth noting that a stalemate situation is something we don't need. If the Scandi high is eventually going to fade rather sooner than later imo

Why!

as long as that high stays there it's disrupting/weakening the atlantic lows/troughs deflecting them SE,i still see no zonal W>E movement,more of a polar NW'ly infuence.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Bitter memories for NW kent....

I actually still have that weather forecast ( JK ) on Tape somewhere - just 22 years ago

His words - the weather is going off the rails this week !

489B82A6-13B9-4B50-B660-ABFAE7379B3F.thumb.jpeg.af6255d9b71919b99d8b4bf1c4a78dd0.jpeg

 

Remember coming back on the train on the sunday night from Manchester to Birmingham after going to the Hacienda buzzing having seen the forecast - 6 inches in Birmingham.

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Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: Continental:Warm dry summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Why!

as long as that high stays there it's disrupting/weakening the atlantic lows/troughs deflecting them SE,i still see no zonal W>E movement,more of a polar NW'ly infuence.

It's all about positioning. Last thing anyone wants is stalling lows flooding the UK. If they have nowhere to go it's not good news. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

There's the start of that signal for the northerly +60 hours later on the pub run at T204:

image.thumb.jpg.549c2fafcf912d36c03a46a2e9087b91.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire

Looks like GP was on to something. Last week in December could 

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

This going to be a fun fi 

Christmas run up could well be come interesting.

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Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

 after going to the Hacienda buzzing having seen the forecast

Good band? 

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4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Remember coming back on the train on the sunday night from Manchester to Birmingham after going to the Hacienda buzzing having seen the forecast - 6 inches in Birmingham.

Not a flake here...

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Look at the state of the NH profile.  This is the point of the year where the PV is properly ramping up, but it's not happening so far.

gfsnh-0-216.png?18

Surely it's only a matter of time until all the pieces fall into place?

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Remember coming back on the train on the sunday night from Manchester to Birmingham after going to the Hacienda buzzing having seen the forecast - 6 inches in Birmingham.

don't think I had any snow, do not remember any at all, 90's snowy decade in my location too, and remember most events

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
3 minutes ago, CanadaAl said:

It's all about positioning. Last thing anyone wants is stalling lows flooding the UK. If they have nowhere to go it's not good news. 

Yes quiet true,but if the Scandi high wins we will forgive some flooding!

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

This going to be a fun fi 

U spot what i spot!

pockets of height's to the north!

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Oh dear!

image.thumb.jpg.46da146c3024a8aa1c0087b3d68323da.jpg

What's becoming of our NH weather? It's a dog's breakfast. Pub run T240.  And we haven't had the SSW yet!

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Oh dear!

image.thumb.jpg.46da146c3024a8aa1c0087b3d68323da.jpg

What's becoming of our NH weather?  Pub run T240.  And we haven't had the SSW yet!

It's staggering around trying to get some form of composure whilst the opposition draws their arm ready to deliver the knockout blow.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Just now, Chertseystreamer79 said:

Is it only me that can see the female reproductive system??? 

Oh no, I saw it too

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