The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

[markw2680]

One thing we no is that the models will not be showing what they are now for net week come Sunday so plenty of time for westward corrections or not? I find quite often when we have good charts for like the following week there always seems to be a few days where they start to look crap before they slowly start to upgrade nearer the time. 

You just never no still plenty of time left yet

[swfc]

I'm still of the opinion looking at the big picture that a pressure rise from the nw is the route to a blocked outlook and eventually colder spell of weather.usual caveats apply but the nhp looks to be breaking the PV from the west.granted the forcing from the Atlantic is building pressure to the north east but I think the current easterly Chase may be a bit of an ask .also the jet on a se profile looks the way forward imo

Edited December 7, 2018 by swfc

[northwestsnow]

Im not going to concern myself with EC day 10 when 96-144 is fluid..

[Tim Bland]

 

[Mike Poole]

27 minutes ago, swfc said:

I'm still of the opinion looking at the big picture that a pressure rise from the nw is the route to a blocked outlook and eventually colder spell of weather.usual caveats apply but the nhp looks to be breaking the PV from the west.granted the forcing from the Atlantic is building pressure to the north east but I think the current easterly Chase may be a bit of an ask .also the jet on a se profile looks the way forward imo

Yes, that's what my money has been on for a couple of days now.  Several runs have shown this.  The main interest in future runs re the shorter term is not whether the Scandi high will hold on for ages, just whether it will hold on long enough for a battleground snow scenario as the Atlantic system pushes across us.  That's knife edge but underdog for the moment, especially for the south, but who knows how that might change in the next day or so.  Thereafter that potential for height rises to the NW is relevant.

Edited December 7, 2018 by Mike Poole

[bluearmy]

10 hours ago, bluearmy said:

In the past, when ukmo picks the different route at day 6 against the others, you tend to see the others cotton pretty well straight  away - I expect the ukmo to go with the ecm on the 12z run 

struggling to maintain enthusiasm to stay in this thread .... could be off to knockers ...

The old reverse psychology delivers again! 

[Stuie]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The old reverse psychology delivers again! 

You`ll never manage that again...

[bluearmy]

16 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

And the EC follows suit. Probably as good as we could've possible hoped for today from where we were 24 hours ago.

Clearly, if the 'upgrades' stop here, it won't be quite enough. But another day or two of this and things are going to start to look very rosy indeed for many.

 

Who is going to go and fetch BA back from the other thread?

I will admit I had a look earlier but knocker was being rude about this thread so i decided not to bother

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The old reverse psychology delivers again! 

T'others have come crawling..

You have to say, UKM is a tremendous model..

 

[Duane S.]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

I will admit I had a look earlier but knocker was being rude about this thread so i decided not to bother

Welcome back from the dark (mild) side!

[Scandinavian High.]

10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Im not going to concern myself with EC day 10 when 96-144 is fluid..

I wouldn’t all models are struggling with day 6 more changes to come.

[Winter Hill]

20 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Not a bad widespread snow maker good ol’ M4 to rescue.... 

@northwestsnow

got to love living in the North West looking at that chart eh 

[northwestsnow]

So.. now we have to wait and see how day 5 plays out wrt energy distribution

..

UKMO still the pick for me at 144 which is a positive because every man and his dog inc EC had virtually all the energy going NE..

[shaky]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

So.. now we have to wait and see how day 5 plays out wrt energy distribution

..

UKMO still the pick for me at 144 which is a positive because every man and his dog inc EC had virtually all the energy going NE..

Mate barr the ukmo.pretty much all the models this morning had energy a lot flatter!!its been close to a sensational turnaround this evening!!could easily go back to square one in the morning!

[swfc]

19 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, that's what my money has been on for a couple of days now.  Several runs have shown this.  The main interest in future runs re the shorter term I s not whether the Scandi high will hold on for ages, just whether it will hold on long enough for a battleground snow scenario as the Atlantic system pushes across us.  That's knife edge but underdog for the moment, especially for the south, but who knows how that might change in the next day or so.  Then that potential for height rises to the NW is relevant.

Yes maybe a  stalling front or a slider "slider gate again"which I introduced is a possibility.would probably be transient tho given the forcing from the west.the UK could be stuck in a very slack flow if the western blocking pics up and the block to the east remains firm.better 850s would make for a strange combo if it varified.im sensing a ukmo-easterly gate creaping in ATM tho!!!  

Edited December 7, 2018 by swfc

[Stuie]

Thinking about the Scandi HP, to shift the block easily would mean the secondary block to give way also. IMO this isn`t a zonal push over.

[Had Worse]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

So.. now we have to wait and see how day 5 plays out wrt energy distribution

..

UKMO still the pick for me at 144 which is a positive because every man and his dog inc EC had virtually all the energy going NE..

If the 18z is good, it could be a sleepless night.

 

Whats that saying.

 

The show isn't over until the fat ladies had a strepsil.

[bluearmy]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

T'others have come crawling..

You have to say, UKM is a tremendous model..

 

 If you look carefully at the 00z run, it was very odd in the central Atlantic and didn’t repeat on the 12z 

the disruption we now see at day 6 showed on  the day 7 chart @carinthian posted so we must indeed give it kudos for placing the trough disruption where it did

plenty of gefs members were playing with this solution though 

lets see where gfsp goes later on this  ..... the eps control has been messing around with these runners in the base of the trough so no surprise on that theme 

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 If you look carefully at the 00z run, it was very odd in the central Atlantic and didn’t repeat on the 12z 

the disruption we now see at day 6 showed on  the day 7 chart @carinthian posted so we must indeed give it kudos for placing the trough disruption where it did

plenty of gefs members were playing with this solution though 

lets see where gfsp goes later on this  ..... the eps control has been messing around with these runners in the base of the trough so no surprise on that theme 

Well TBF Exeter have included the 'lots of uncertainty ' proviso today so i guess the pros are not entitely sure how this will play out..

Fascinating viewing and a much better evening for coldies..

[SMU]

48 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Can you see the models pushed the Atlantic back/stronger Scandinavian ridge/high or a cold easterly that makes to the UK ?

Hi

I think I said over this last 4-5 days I was expecting to see the energy transfer SE- & despite run after run of that not being shown ( plus some mild panicking from this winters usual culprits ) - suddenly today we are on the cusp again

What the UKMO looks like today @144 is exactly what I said & proposed would happen

* BUT * the finer detail on how things actually slide & happen have big impacts on snow or rain-

Heres the zoomed in UKMO 144 & ECM 144

I have reviewed the thicknesses - the scaling is different on UKMO & ECM but they work out the same - both are hitting around 540 DAM which just about supports a marginal snow event- ( no 850-1000 Thickness yet )

Remember Colours different but thet are actually identical charts !! ECM is just a bit more progressive in the south with feeding through atlantic air -

As as result south of M4 is to warm-

Projected frontal snow chart is below*

UKMO again is ok, marginal & ive annotated the ideal flow as opposed to the marginal one-

Hope that helps

S

Edited December 7, 2018 by Steve Murr

[snowray]

31 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

One thing we no is that the models will not be showing what they are now for net week come Sunday so plenty of time for westward corrections or not? I find quite often when we have good charts for like the following week there always seems to be a few days where they start to look crap before they slowly start to upgrade nearer the time. 

You just never no still plenty of time left yet

I notice that GP has been very quiet, maybe I have missed his posts, been Christmas shopping today.

Anyway, a few days ago he said that it will appear that the Atlantic has victory but the Scandi high will push back west and then we must look towards the Atlantic or Scandi for HP to build later in December. Thats the impression I got from his posts, I could be wrong though, it's pretty technical stuff at times.

[snowice]

Oh my can't believe it. Just look at the charts had to check the time and date twice. That's why I love this place what a turnaround. Alarm set for 4am

[Stuie]

Had another little draw with the ECM, albeit 216 but it`s a very plausible evolution, the cold is just shunted and the only way to go appears this way.

I don`t know if this is good or bad but to see the US with very little is something you can`t say very often at this time of the year.

 

 

Pretty strong JS but it`s blocked off to go into southern Europe which could be a good indication this Sceuro block isn`t going anywhere fast.

Edited December 7, 2018 by Stuie W

[Methuselah]

So, after what seems like page after page of burgeoning excitement, I view the 12Z Para and find this:

And then this:

And, lastly, this, which I think looks interesting:

But, overall, I'm still minded towards a rather cold and unsettled run-up to Xmas...New Year? Who knows...But the omens look good, to me...

[snowice]

6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Hi

I think I said over this last 4-5 days I was expecting to see the energy transfer SE- & despite run after run of that not being shown ( plus some mild panicking from this winters usual culprits ) - suddenly today we are on the cusp again

What the UKMO looks like today @144 is exactly what I said & proposed would happen

* BUT * the finer detail on how things actually slide & happen have big impacts on snow or rain-

Heres the zoomed in UKMO 144 & ECM 144

I have reviewed the thicknesses - the scaling is different on UKMO & ECM but they work out the same - both are hitting around 540 DAM which just about supports a marginal snow event- ( no 850-1000 Thickness yet )

Remember Colours different but thet are actually identical charts !! ECM is just a bit more progressive in the south with feeding through atlantic air -

As as result south of M4 is to warm-

Projected frontal snow chart is below*

UKMO again is ok, marginal & ive annotated the ideal flow as opposed to the marginal one-

Hope that helps

S

You need to go a little further west with Nicks crayons.