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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Tonight proves this not over

...

Energy distribution very complex!!

Cold pooling to our NE  becoming noticeable now..

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Close to an amazing turnaround tonight mate!!!

Yeah

Liverpool Istanbul 2005.  Can the cold pull it back from 3-0 down at HT.

Hope the 18z isn't an anti-climax.

Edited by Had Worse
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Just now, northwestsnow said:

Tonight proves this not over

...

Energy distribution very complex!!

Like I said before NWS, just another inch on the chart westwards and we are in business, I mean at this rate of upgrades anything is possible.

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Close to an amazing turnaround tonight mate!!!

More upgrades to come some places will see snow next week..

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
1 minute ago, abbie123 said:

More upgrades to come some places will see snow next week..

I metioned to u earlier if it was gona happen it had to happen by 12z!!!

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

I think the ukmo and gFS para have pushed things westward without doubt.imo the Atlantic is looking ie  barrelling low  to strong on that jet profile.hope I'm wrong but I can't see it 

Edited by swfc
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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

Raw ECM gives snow Midlands northwards with that runner at T168+; one to watch...

Edited by mulzy
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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

At least by next weekend we are `seasonal` with those 1pm 850`s.

 

ECM0-192.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

Love these battles when they come along, a nice band of heavy snow stalling right across the length of the UK would be nice...

gfsnh-0-144.thumb.png.5cdad7628b1c3168e6b5bbd19c103541.pngUN144-21.thumb.GIF.c666b7bea6729c1e2602129150b12e6b.GIFECH1-144.GIF.thumb.png.47f3df09e573fb6010c1162c5261a1b4.png

At the minute not quite, but certainly an interesting model watching weekend coming up

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
1 minute ago, Stuie W said:

At least by next weekend we are `seasonal` with those 1pm 850`s.

 

ECM0-192.gif

Yes and more like it, colder theme taking hold?  More of this and we head very much in the right direction....and a quick switch to deep cold down the line becomes more viable

 

 BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

Yep, we can work from here. Much better (chillier Europe) EC tonight.

 

ECM0-216.gif

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Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM 192 so close with deep easterlies

We need about ~2/300 miles out of the continent...

Can you see the models pushed the Atlantic back/stronger Scandinavian ridge/high or a cold easterly that makes to the UK ?

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Yes and more like it, colder theme taking hold?  More of this and we head very much in the right direction....and a quick switch to deep cold down the line becomes more viable

 

 BFTP

Don`t want to get hung up on a run mate but heck everybody has been hung up on game over soo let`s do this!

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.

Not quite there yet but much better ECM op tonight and still another 6 days for further westward corrections. Lol

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
1 hour ago, ICE COLD said:

Is it ? That chat is not the norm for mid December , the pv is in bits . There is ridges of high pressure around the hole globe and that warming predicted will take the pv down . There is no circle shape pv and massive purple blob . Can only be good news going forward. 

Set Up across N.America is very much that seen in an Elnino

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Ahem..

Not the best of finishes but much better in the nearer term, weekend could be interesting viewing?

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
18 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Raw ECM gives snow Midlands northwards with that runner at T168+; one to watch...

Not a bad widespread snow maker good ol’ M4 to rescue.... :oldsmile:

87D211C6-974E-4C8D-A1D6-AF58D7BA1340.thumb.png.85e83f7003eda1a98e70141d2e790bba.png

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