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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Assuming that the Atlantic does barrel through, and we're not certain yet, I wouldn't discount the FV3 evolution after, here at T276, seen this on a fair few runs in the last few days, something from the north could follow, long before we get into time frames that an SSW might have an effect.

image.thumb.jpg.84d0bb87a1cc60ba23579ca4cfa168f1.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

This is the GEFS mean for 6 days time from the past 4 GEFS member runs. The 00z started the nudge west of the ridge with more disruption, the 06z and now the 12z have followed on.

GFSAVGNH18_162_1.thumb.png.96edaee0b56ecf909204c22b26921e3f.pngGFSAVGNH00_156_1.thumb.png.325518318529824c779369cc99370684.pngGFSAVGNH06_150_1.thumb.png.5da903d52a80bc143c3dfaa423be3323.pngGFSAVGNH12_144_1.thumb.png.23d88cd213f24fd3673231e1e3931f97.png

 

Apologies for the child-like scrawls below, just trying to highlight the progressive movement in 18 hours (between the 18z  of last night and the 12z of just now)

18e-GFSAVGNH12_144_1.thumb.png.14d027c25167a2c10da9e77ce7e934ac.png12e-GFSAVGNH12_144_1.thumb.png.2753943218c677c1fada0075023bde4a.png

It is close to becoming a trend. Is that it, or is there more to come I wonder?

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
5 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Still time for significant in Dec,  Feb1991, Xmas week (for me and not targeted at my location) still lined up for that (arctic maritime rather than arctic continental)....BUT need Sunday onward to be remain generally on the chilly side rather than mild.  I’m not overly concerned at the moment (and certainly not worried about no deep cold yet) but I hope the block has tad more influence than what GFS etc say...more like UKMO would be plenty suffice in grand scheme of things at this early winter juncture.

 

BFTP

On this, UKMO holds to provide continental feed, GFS disrupting and sliding further south....this keeps us well on the chilly side....very pleased with runs thus far

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
2 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

This is the GEFS mean for 6 days time from the past 4 GEFS member runs. The 00z started the nudge west of the ridge with more disruption, the 06z and now the 12z have followed on.

GFSAVGNH18_162_1.thumb.png.96edaee0b56ecf909204c22b26921e3f.pngGFSAVGNH00_156_1.thumb.png.325518318529824c779369cc99370684.pngGFSAVGNH06_150_1.thumb.png.5da903d52a80bc143c3dfaa423be3323.pngGFSAVGNH12_144_1.thumb.png.23d88cd213f24fd3673231e1e3931f97.png

 

Apologies for the child-like scrawls below, just trying to highlight the progressive movement in 18 hours (between the 18z  of last night and the 12z of just now)

18e-GFSAVGNH12_144_1.thumb.png.14d027c25167a2c10da9e77ce7e934ac.png12e-GFSAVGNH12_144_1.thumb.png.2753943218c677c1fada0075023bde4a.png

It is close to becoming a trend. Is that it, or is there more to come I wonder?

Not a million miles away from an `event` if trend continues, just needs to continue! 

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

The gFS para in in fi is one of the strangest I've seen.pv in bits and  high pressure building from the ESB towards Greenland!!

Edited by swfc
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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Much better from the GFs(p) a break in the Atlantic train of lows allows for some amplification and some slight ridging to our west 

F81BB4EC-9EDD-4290-B852-03D8C1D6867A.png

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
Just now, swfc said:

The gFS para in in fi is one of the strangest I've seen.pv in bits and high press high pressure building from the ESB towards Greenland!!

Yep, that is a really unusual evolution. A sure sign that the model has absolutely no idea what to do next. Which clearly means, neither should we!

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
2 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Yep, that is a really unusual evolution. A sure sign that the model has absolutely no idea what to do next. Which clearly means, neither should we!

Looks insane tbh.total confusion after the 7_8 day period?

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
5 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Just seen 1 run today UKMO 12z

  

  5D71019C-DB25-417D-BD9C-F718C322FBF3.thumb.png.bb3738f5b3dd0087cb39fa4736aa9d72.png

Will that deliver a battleground snow event or not?     btw how come you've got Gandhi in your avatar?

Edited by Mapantz
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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Will that deliver a battleground snow event or not?     btw how come you've got some Indian bloke in your avatar?

You mean Ghandi?

Haha

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
1 minute ago, mulzy said:

ECM day 4 - probably the most amplified of the lot!

ECMOPEU12_96_1.png

Just thought I would tell ya . You have to click on the image to see tonight’s run .

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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Man
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Blizzards, Storms, Hot, Foggy - Infact everything
  • Location: Isle of Man

Looks like the trend is back to being our friend.  We may soon be looking at snow events later next week. Beyond then if the Atlantic does go under, a very wintry Christmas period is a distinct possibility. If this trend continues we are going to have some classic output shortly. 

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4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Will that deliver a battleground snow event or not?     btw how come you've got some Indian bloke in your avatar?

I would say not quite- we need a bit more continental draw into the front-

-2 850s will do it with more of a draw...

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

You mean Ghandi?

Haha

Looked like an ex umpire to me - only really heard of Ghandi because of that trigger line in only fools and horses - 'he made one great film and you never saw him again' didnt know who he was before that and still didn't know what he looked like - until now.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, Steve Murr said:

I would say not quite- we need a bit more continental draw into the front-

-2 850s will do it with more of a draw...

Just wondered because the other models nowhere near a snow event now but obviously they didnt have it anywhere near as far west or as favourable tilt as the UKMO - thanks.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

ECM about the best at T120, them colder uppers very close to the east coast there.

Sorry just noticed this has already been posted.

ECM1-120.gif

ECM0-120.gif

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

EC being more stubborn it seems with the block. Much better cold pool closer by.

 

ECH0-120.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Just now, Stuie W said:

Come on!!! give us the battleground!

 

ECH0-144.png

Oh my word, that is so, so close.:clap:

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