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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Hope the ukmo is on the ball ,looks like that low is going to undercut their on the 168 chart.,perhaps with the high dominating afterwards.One can dream

Cant stand anymore zonal dross for another 10 days ,it’s vile here again.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Looking at the 0Z ensemble - uncertainty sets-in as early as day 4, and by day 8, it's take-your pick - one 'interesting' thing, though: both the operational and control runs remain below the mean, throughout most of FI:

GEFS Ensembles Chart

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

I think we ought to bear in mind UKMO looks very very isolated - we know it can pull it off against all comers, guess we just got to hope this is one of those occasions..

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Looks a cracker to me- just as i thought it would

Lets hope its on the ball and UKMO comes up trumps. Defo sends energy packing towards Europe on that chart. Wish we could see the pressure profile to the NE .

C

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Lets hope its on the ball and UKMO comes up trumps. Defo sends energy packing towards Europe on that chart. Wish we could see the pressure profile to the NE .

C

Yup- the tilt on the low on UKMO144 is different to the others, energy, or a good chunk of it is going SE into Europe-

A lot depends on the high - we can't see where we need to, but i'd guess its a lot further west than GFS/EC/GEM/ etc..

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

In the past, when ukmo picks the different route at day 6 against the others, you tend to see the others cotton pretty well straight  away - I expect the ukmo to go with the ecm on the 12z run 

struggling to maintain enthusiasm to stay in this thread .... could be off to knockers ...

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yup- the tilt on the low on UKMO144 is different to the others, energy, or a good chunk of it is going SE into Europe-

A lot depends on the high - we can't see where we need to, but i'd guess its a lot further west than GFS/EC/GEM/ etc..

The GFS sends energy south east at 168 to, with the block further east therefore the atlantic influence greater
gfs-0-168.png

The UKM suffers the same issue as the other models the uppers move back but the boundary layer is over the north sea.
UW144-7.GIF?07-06

 

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Location: Edinburgh

Still a chance to see some snow in the north. For example at T222 there are some really interesting uppers across northern England and Scotland. 

That's in the long term though, after the HP leaves us around Wednesday, it's going to be rain for all, even on Ben Nevis with positive uppers

 

222-7UK.gif

222-779UK.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
20 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Now that's an interesting chart at 168t from UKMO extended .

C

ukm2.2018121400.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png

It's incredible isn't it?

If you looked at the T+144 and T+168 Meto charts in isolation you would think somewhere would be on for a massive dumping next week.

Slider gate part 10...

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

In the past, when ukmo picks the different route at day 6 against the others, you tend to see the others cotton pretty well straight  away - I expect the ukmo to go with the ecm on the 12z run 

struggling to maintain enthusiasm to stay in this thread .... could be off to knockers ...

So you don't hold out much hope of cold in the next fortnight BA? Got to say it doesn't look great (at least in the shorter term) but if, IF that UKMO 168 chart comes off...

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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.

00z

A very strong Atlantic next week.

This is the best for up North next weekend?

h500slp.thumb.png.a93012a3e55281fc975c6d778f02add9.png

uksnowrisk.thumb.png.ade95fb5f6de7b24a547e8801923bb39.png

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Hmm so back to chasing rainbows again.Maybe the ec46 charts that were posted earlier will be correct.Has it ever been correct at that range before or even close ?

6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The ECM mean and op are fairly close through the 10 day run this morning the biggest gap is on the 11th

graphe_ens3.thumb.png.a9dbe8c3021315cadc014e15f4fc08cd.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
13 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The ECM mean and op are fairly close through the 10 day run this morning the biggest gap is on the 11th

graphe_ens3.thumb.png.a9dbe8c3021315cadc014e15f4fc08cd.png

Decision Day. I'm on a countryside walk, come public house hunt that day, it should be dry on the outside that day, chilly with abundant sunshine. Might be some sleety flakes and hill snow around next week in places as well. The evening runs of the ECM and UKMO are especially important tonight for anyone chasing snowflakes. Deep cold unlikely but chilly to colder than average Temps look like ruling the roost for much of next week. It's all about the D4 and D5 charts from four to five days ago coming to fruition, will it go our way?

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
16 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

It's incredible isn't it?

If you looked at the T+144 and T+168 Meto charts in isolation you would think somewhere would be on for a massive dumping next week.

Slider gate part 10...

Its possible but looks like UKMO on its own at the moment. Maybe, their updated worded forecast this afternoon will shed some light on their thinking.

C

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone

 

3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Those (like me) signed up to John Hammond's website will have received an email exclusive this morning with his monthly forecast 

All I'll say is the period from Dec 24th to 6th Jan could be very interesting for our cold folk, impacts might not necessarily be straight away and could be a bit soon for the big day but into the new year may be different...

I'll give you a clue SSW

Good man summer sun we bit of festive cheer i know your feeling sorry for us coldies at minute..

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
26 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

In the past, when ukmo picks the different route at day 6 against the others, you tend to see the others cotton pretty well straight  away - I expect the ukmo to go with the ecm on the 12z run 

struggling to maintain enthusiasm to stay in this thread .... could be off to knockers ...

Am i the only one buzzing in here? i am really happy with the output, i would rather an absolutely blistering spell further down the line than a half baked one now, perhaps its because i only really very fleetingly and usually only for 1 run or 2, actually bought into anything significant in December, January was always the one that was going to bare fruit.

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Those (like me) signed up to John Hammond's website will have received an email exclusive this morning with his monthly forecast 

All I'll say is the period from Dec 24th to 6th Jan could be very interesting for our cold folk, impacts might not necessarily be straight away and could be a bit soon for the big day but into the new year may be different...

I'll give you a clue SSW

“Increasing chance of severe cold as we head into January” ,ties in with ec46 charts as well.Well it’s about time we had severe cold in Junary,it’s been a while only Jan2010 springs to mind ,but that wasn’t exactly epic away from the Scottish Highlands.

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

“Increasing chance of severe cold as we head into January” ,ties in with ec46 charts as well.Well it’s about time we had severe cold in Junary,it’s been a while only Jan2010 springs to mind ,but that wasn’t exactly epic away from the Scottish Highlands.

I think you need to read up with regard to Jan 2010 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
10 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

 

Again can't delete above - apologise.

Anyhow, both GFS and ECM are now showing the easterlies never really making it into the UK, alas no real cold in the reliable - quite disappointing. Instead, lots of wind and rain - not inspiring at all!

However, they both show a southerly tracking jet, and the trough aligned on a slightly negative tilt, more so ECM, and as long as we continue with this position, then the north at least will be prone to colder conditions with I suspect snow down to relatively low levels as we move through mid-month. ECM showing northern half of UK in sub 528 dam air, under a slack air pressure, ripe territory for evaporative cooling - so all not lost.

Traditionally winter doesn't tend to kick in until just before christmas, sometimes thereafter, and this year looks the same now. 

On a positive note, increasing signals events in upper atmosphere could be conducive to some proper cold in the not too distant future.. (stratospheric developments).

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

I think you need to read up with regard to Jan 2010 

Agreed! It was pretty epic here! 

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
11 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Those (like me) signed up to John Hammond's website will have received an email exclusive this morning with his monthly forecast 

All I'll say is the period from Dec 24th to 6th Jan could be very interesting for our cold folk, impacts might not necessarily be straight away and could be a bit soon for the big day but into the new year may be different...

I'll give you a clue SSW

Cheers SS for that info . Everyone seems to be pointing to that period. It’s only right we have a freezing snowy January and February, as you got your long hot summer this year . 

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Good Morning all

Happy Friday all hope everyone is well. From my post yesterday where I commented about the high over Scandinavia and how difficult it is to forcast these kind of setups. It looks to me in what we are facing have to be really honest here is that as everyday is going forward the models have been trending away from a potential easterly. 

I know it's really hard to take in after all the excitement that was mounting at the beginning of the week and it's hard to swallow. But being really honest and looking at the output it looks more likely that we may get a quieter period but the atlantic will make inroads and the high to our northeast will get shoved further east. Having said this I am no expert but this could all change and this situation could flip and we could be all getting excited again, as I said before these high pressure systems are hard to forcast and can change the whole forcast output. II am only making my current honest presumption from what has been modelled in the past 2 days.

Another important thing is that I have been looking at temperatures in the east likes of eg Moscow. Although they are in minus digits my instinct tells me that it is not  what I would call brutal cold if that headed west (and that's what we are looking for).

lets not get too dishearted with the current output it's only 7th December today and we have still got a long journey to go on this together. Let's get these Atlantic blips out of the way and also keep an eye on how temperatures pan out in Eastern Europe as if we are waiting for our siberian express it has to be freezing there.

The output could all change in the next day or so who knows. Let's hope the Siberian express won't be delayed too long.

hope you all have a great Friday take care.

kind regards

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