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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
Just now, bluearmy said:

If the ec46 and glosea show an ssw then you will see it reflected in the 16/30 dayer  - they will speak of potential for cold at the back end. It’s happened plenty of times in the past. 

Yes - December 2012 update - reference target date Jan 13 being an example and a year earlier with that would have been record breaking cold that went into France instead.

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

That looks absolutely beautiful.

With a heavy heart i will sacrifice Dec for that.

So would i but it wouldnt be with a heavy heart - January = maximum effect remember.

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

I know I said I'd moved on but the pub run block is putting up a bit more of a fight against the Atlantic, T192:

image.thumb.jpg.5227ba04053b2e3a12dc9e7c4c5d05c8.jpg

But as the above discussion shows bigger things are in motion, I still think this current event will be a damp squib, maybe some of it slightly frozenly damp?

Any road that squib has sailed...

Edited by Mike Poole
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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted

No comments on the 18z gfs and there here and now says it all really!!clingin on to that ssw hope for january!if it delivers it will be perfect timing!!

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
2 minutes ago, shaky said:

No comments on the 18z gfs and there here and now says it all really!!clingin on to that ssw hope for january!if it delivers it will be perfect timing!!

No comments because it cements the failed easterly. Atlantic 1, amplification nil. Onto the next round. 

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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted

GFS consistent with the strat warming, starting to bring it forward. Be interesting to see if it shows the significant warm up of the previous run in the last few frames.

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Spah1 Accomplished

Spah1

Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
Posted (edited)
32 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Put it this way, with those ridiculous anomalies at more than a months range, you would have to think an SSW is involved on a huge cluster, dont think bluearmy gets the strat charts though on his subscription so we wont know unless someone like Fergie ,Liam dutton or Mtt Hugo or someone  like that comment on twitter.

I’ve posted several tweets in the tweet thread suggesting fun and games in Jan. 

Essex weather also posted today. 

Edited by Spah1
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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

So, on to the next thing, GFS out to T240, and looks to be significant amplification in the upstream pattern, we could be looking at a northerly sooner than you'd think after that low is out of the way east?

image.thumb.jpg.9cefb0b6324566ba2162d91e0ab65efb.jpg

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
2 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Eh? I’ve posted several tweets in the tweet thread suggesting fun and games in Jan. 

Essex weather also posted today. 

Yes, i was refering to tonights run though.

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CanadaAl Enthusiast

CanadaAl

Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: Continental:Warm dry summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
Posted
2 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Eh? I’ve posted several tweets in the tweet thread suggesting fun and games in Jan. 

Essex weather also posted today. 

i'm still hoping there's a Christmas miracle last week of December. Wishful thinking though...

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

It’s not?

T300

127EEAC1-C560-40AF-A5DA-609510FCD865.thumb.jpeg.9a65c8e0426ed2609e0ed74c470063e2.jpeg

Admittedly it’s fairly static for days 10/14

There we go.......t300? Yes nearterm isn’t zonal, that’s generally a sw/ne axis....

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, Mr Brown said:

That’s what you're Expecting? 

Forget looking east.....look north.  And it will need a trough digging south well over us and SE....lots to develop and we don’t want an 18z

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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damianslaw Maestro

damianslaw

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, CanadaAl said:

i'm still hoping there's a Christmas miracle last week of December. Wishful thinking though...

Yes - me too, a cold run up to christmas is something I look forward too - but alas not had one of them since 2010. However, I'd exchange a mild run in for a cold christmas week.. we shall see.

The Iberian ridge is going to do no favours for allowing something colder, if it continues to sit in current situ - need it to shift westwards to allow a more pronounced negatively titled trough and possible northerly with heights building to our west - not out of the question, there are very fine margins at the moment, between predominantly cold, or a more fluctuating cold/milder pattern. 

This is a tricky set up to forecast accurately beyond about 5 days, expect lots of chopping and changing at the 144hr timerange - ripe territory for sudden short-term developments making a mockery of medium term forecasting - 'where did that northerly spring from?' could be a watchword..

Edited by damianslaw
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Hodgheg Community Regular

Hodgheg

Posted
  • Location: Near Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Severe storms and heavy snow
  • Location: Near Hull
Posted

WOW just look at that toasty run up to Christmas. Also just just at the difference between this and the 12z. 

 

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jonboy Seasoned

jonboy

Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York
Posted

Why do people take each run as gospel itsa blend across many runs 

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booferking Veteran

booferking

Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
Posted
1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Forget looking east.....look north

 

BFTP

Flicking through the extended period Azores high extending to Greenland stood out on quite a few with low going through uk nw/se exis.. 

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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted
13 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

GFS consistent with the strat warming, starting to bring it forward. Be interesting to see if it shows the significant warm up of the previous run in the last few frames.

Yep. Good to see. Major warm up starting earlier.

strat 1.png

strat 2.png

strat 3.png

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Spah1 Accomplished

Spah1

Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
Posted (edited)

958C3EAF-CAE6-4228-BB2B-B694DBD2ADBC.thumb.png.e678f3294016e20026c0cf2f698464d8.png

who’s got the marshmellows? 

Edited by Spah1
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markw2680 Accomplished

markw2680

Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

So, on to the next thing, GFS out to T240, and looks to be significant amplification in the upstream pattern, we could be looking at a northerly sooner than you'd think after that low is out of the way east?

image.thumb.jpg.9cefb0b6324566ba2162d91e0ab65efb.jpg

Providing the block dosnt just hold it right over the uk. If we can’t get the block far enough west for us to enjoy they can then start to become a problem imo just holding the lows right over us

Edited by markw2680
Correction
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
5 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Forget looking east.....look north.  And it will need a trough digging south well over us and SE....lots to develop and we don’t want an 18z

 

BFTP

I do - yes please!!

gfsnh-10-384_jof6.png

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