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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

eps mean in the 7/10 day period shows the spreads have uncertainty to our south and southwest ........ plenty to be settled yet and settled doesn’t seem to reflect where we’re headed in the extended period ........

Not zonal in the extended is it ? 

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Im afriad it will be.

. Hopefully cold zonal . Can live with that for now . As long as it’s not the normal zonal , as in from the SW . 

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Im afriad it will be.

It’s not zonal NWS

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Let the battle commence 

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ecmt850.144-5.png

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Im afriad it will be.

You think we could just switch to zonal from here? Would be a turn of events. You would hope we would have a NW attack but to flatten out would be a real kick in the proverbial`s, IF the data is correct regarding weeks 3-4 upper winds to reverse then I can`t really see zonal being mentioned after next week.

Personally I am taking everything with a pinch of salt and hoping the upstairs data is more truthful than the multiple middle floor runs...

I did say hoping and toys are actually glued down.

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ICON 18z done, here T120 vs 12z T126

image.thumb.jpg.aa45f8289b526ddef7e1f37c83563644.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.ec8125bdee44f1099e18eb4e6ef22774.jpg

Stonger something somewhere, weaker signals somewhere, upgrade, downgrade...whatever...I've lost interest in this chase now, available cold was never going to make this a memorable spell.  

On to the next one, either height rises to the NW, or failing that what the SSW offers...

Made me chuckle, Mike. I think you are right in much of what you said. If you take what you said then it equates to who knows! You will be back tomorrow

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

It’s not?

T300

127EEAC1-C560-40AF-A5DA-609510FCD865.thumb.jpeg.9a65c8e0426ed2609e0ed74c470063e2.jpeg

Admittedly it’s fairly static for days 10/14

Stop posting outliers, Blue.... blimey.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, Stuie W said:

Stop posting outliers, Blue.... blimey.

Thats the ensemble mean.

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Thats the ensemble mean.

I know, just an eyebrow raised hopeful not

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, northwestsnow said:

And it looks ruddy awful;.

Could certainly do with the trough further South.

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
Just now, northwestsnow said:

And it looks ruddy awful;.

Yes, wet and horrible sums it up!  Hopefully, the signal for the UK trough will disappear.  Rather have a Bartlett and benign mild conditions than that!

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Models suggesting the atlantic will have enough gusto to kick aside heights to our NE, a shortlived settled cold spell, preety average standard stuff, before wind and rain returns later next week, definate wintry mix in the north, anywhere with a bit of height could see quite a bit of snow, as the jet along a NW-SE axis, sub 528 dam air - evaporative cooling will come into play.

After a couple of mild days, things turning much more seasonal Sunday onwards, no deep freeze, but wintry in feel.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Just now, mulzy said:

Yes, wet and horrible sums it up!  Hopefully, the signal for the UK trough will disappear.  Rather have a Bartlett and benign mild conditions than that!

Didn't Judah Cohen say, in one of his tweets, that the vortex displacement might turn out similar to 2003?

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, Ed Stone said:

Didn't Judah Cohen say, in one of his tweets, that the vortex displacement might turn out similar to 2003?

Lets hope the weather doesn't

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

Funnily enough seeing the word Bartlett mentioned above, I was thinking about a dry east and wet west under the same pressure.

Roll on more runs, bland this is not.

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It’s not?

T300

127EEAC1-C560-40AF-A5DA-609510FCD865.thumb.jpeg.9a65c8e0426ed2609e0ed74c470063e2.jpeg

Admittedly it’s fairly static for days 10/14

Hopefully that will change as it’s quite far out . I mean 10 days ago we were staring at long zonal spell and the charts looked awful . Then the height rises appeared , I know it’s hasnt really come of but things can change quickly . 

Be nice to hear from @Glacier Point again . I love his input . 

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
21 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Didn't Judah Cohen say, in one of his tweets, that the vortex displacement might turn out similar to 2003?

Not a fan at all of pattern matching. The number of times people compare the current setup to a past one only for weather to end up completely different. No two events are ever the same.

Of course you can compare events in terms of a few factors but no two events are ever identical in every single factor, and so conditions are never likely to be identical and can often be complete opposites. Weather is just far too variable.

Edited by MattStoke
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