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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Is he talking broadscale (UK) or regionally ..im not sure ...but good point Don.

It’s a shame he doesn’t post here now to clarify!

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I dont .. not when hes saying those kind of things!!

Me neither but considering I am in East Anglia that doesn`t concern me, I`m after an easterly flow which is really what we are after and if it does set in then the West will come into play. 

With the current setup, we could be looking at battleground scenarios across the UK but only if we can hold enough. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cowbridge, Wales (105m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, cold snowy winters, thunderstorms
  • Location: Cowbridge, Wales (105m ASL)
52 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Cold uppers just about touch the end of the  pier  at Great Yarmouth wouldn’t take many more adjustments to put us back in the game though 

991F5FA4-7704-4059-BE45-6098C187BB98.png

Maybe a dusting of snow on the pier only then from that chart lol :crazy:

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
20 minutes ago, The4Seasons said:

Maybe a dusting of snow on the pier only then from that chart lol :crazy:

I can`t post the chart due to being told off but the dew points are around -1 for the east coast which is 1 ingredient for the white stuff, that is lunchtime also.

Edit: well I can do it this way...

dew.JPG

Edited by Stuie W
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

If anyone's in any doubt, the 12Z ensemble will sort it out!:crazy:

GEFS Ensembles Chart

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
12 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

If anyone's in any doubt, the 12Z ensemble will sort it out!

GEFS Ensembles Chart

There’s still a handful that keep the -5c uppers for a few days. If we can get a bit of snow as the Atlantic comes in I’ll be happy, then hope for better next time

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

When is ‘the end of the run’ on MOGREPS ?

Hopefully some blank face blinking eyes emoji...

Edited by Stuie W
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Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham
  • Location: Cheltenham
1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Is he talking broadscale (UK) or regionally ..im not sure ...but good point Don.

Sorry should have qualified that - he was talking about the South West UK

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

When is ‘the end of the run’ on MOGREPS ?

Think it’s 15 days.

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Does the last hours conversations meen the ECM was a bit pony!!hmm onto the gFS for a moral booster !!!

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
8 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

When is ‘the end of the run’ on MOGREPS ?

What an 'orrible acronym MOGREPS is...Reminds me of those 'tools' that I always eschew, in favour of an adjustable spanner...

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh-on-Sea
  • Location: Leigh-on-Sea
2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

What an 'orrible acronym MOGREPS is...Reminds me of those 'tools' that I always eschew, in favour of an adjustable spanner...

Mole grips are nothing like a spanner, so just as well you dont use them lol

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I'm not seeing anything mild as such beyond the next few days, temps becoming generally below average sums it up so feeling seasonal and there is potential for some trough disruption further ahead with a rain, sleet and snow mix...could be worse!

Karl, you have hit the nail on the head. conditions ahead are easily overlooked whilst looking for Nirvana.

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Posted
  • Location: East London
  • Location: East London

New to this so a novice question 

Will the 850s being shown now result in low single figure temps? As long as its not humid muck I'll be happy tbh. Most winters we get no snow down here so I'm used to it just hoping for at least frost and cold. 

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
1 minute ago, Zesyph said:

New to this so a novice question 

Will the 850s being shown now result in low single figure temps? As long as its not humid muck I'll be happy tbh. Most winters we get no snow down here so I'm used to it just hoping for at least frost and cold. 

I have always thought of -8 850`s as around zero 2M temps. Hope that helps a bit.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

eps mean in the 7/10 day period shows the spreads have uncertainty to our south and southwest ........ plenty to be settled yet and settled doesn’t seem to reflect where we’re headed in the extended period ........

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at tonight's extended Ecm 12z ensemble mean..to me that is pretty chilly and increasingly unsettled so potential for a wintry mix, especially at elevation..not mild sw'ly mush!

EDM0-216.gif

EDM1-216.gif

EDM0-240.GIF

EDM1-240.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: Continental:Warm dry summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
Just now, Frosty. said:

Looking at tonight's extended Ecm 12z ensemble mean..to me that is pretty chilly and increasingly unsettled so potential for a wintry mix, especially at elevation..not mild sw'ly mush!

EDM0-216.gif

EDM1-216.gif

EDM0-240.GIF

EDM1-240.gif

reminds me of 14/15 and 17/18. NW to SE aligned jet. Could be worse

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