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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, shaky said:

I got a run tomorrow morning!!dont even feel like going now thanks to the models lol!!so demotivated lol!!hopefully ecm can cheer us up!!

Me too matey..

I do hope, for all the optimism , we don't end up with a horrible wet stormy December..

As it stands im fearing for the next few weeks if i'm honest, maybe a few days next week under the influence of the high then back to Atlantic dross?

Maybe the models will flip back to showing the block having more influence, hope so..:-)

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Me too matey..

I do hope, for all the optimism , we don't end up with a horrible wet stormy December..

As it stands im fearing for the next few weeks if i'm honest, maybe a few days next week under the influence of the high then back to Atlantic dross?

Maybe the models will flip back to showing the block having more influence, hope so..:-)

Worse thing is tomorrow morning is windy and rainy which will just add to that deflated feeling!!ecm up and running now!

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Still big uncertainty about the health of the Scandi block, I think 65% chance it will be blown away as we stand at the moment.  Should that happen, and I hope it won't, we look to the next opportunity, and it may not be far behind, there looks a chance to build heights to our northwest, as shown in a few runs in later stages, and GEM 12z hints at this at T240:

image.thumb.jpg.be3aaa0fa285bee417720deb4a5289db.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
23 minutes ago, snowray said:

A lot of colder runs in there, nothing spectacularly cold but the mean remains at or below 0c from this Sunday to the end.

London ensembles.

graphe_ens3.gif

Compared to what we had a few days ago they are pretty disappointing ?

F9024149-D878-4F41-AF04-7AA6344DD8CE.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Compared to what we had a few days ago they are pretty disappointing ?

F9024149-D878-4F41-AF04-7AA6344DD8CE.jpeg

Yes, unfortunately so.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

The Atlantic is a perpetual menace to our Winters of course.

What was once an Atlantic ridge is now UK ridge

ECH1-120.GIF?06-0

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
4 minutes ago, Mucka said:

The Atlantic is a perpetual menace to our Winters of course.

What was once an Atlantic ridge is now UK ridge

ECH1-120.GIF?06-0

That looks better than gfs and ukmo

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
2 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

T138, slight margins but block less affected, Continental feed for at least the east and SE.  Got to say with wax and wane full blown easterly imo not on the cards....not just this run but also going forward.  

 

BFTP

When you say going forward, what time frame?

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
13 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Compared to what we had a few days ago they are pretty disappointing ?

F9024149-D878-4F41-AF04-7AA6344DD8CE.jpeg

This right here is the perfect example of how an entire ensemble suite can flip from one solution to another very quickly, whether showing cold or mild!

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
3 minutes ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

Lovely run from ECMWF

untitled.png

Yes indeed, OMG ECM is at it again!

ECM1-144.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
1 minute ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

I was being sarcastic, those temperatures are well above average, especially for the north of the UK. The cold air keeps getting shifted to the east at every run

It's actually a pretty decent run - the best of the evening!

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
3 minutes ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

I was being sarcastic, those temperatures are well above average, especially for the north of the UK. The cold air keeps getting shifted to the east at every run

Well some of us think its a pretty good chart, T168 might be a ECM special, coming up in approximately, mmm, 4 minutes.:oldrolleyes:

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

Think this Scandi high is digging it`s feet in, good stuff.

 

ECH1-144.png

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Location: Edinburgh
4 minutes ago, mulzy said:

It's actually a pretty decent run - the best of the evening!

The block is certainly stronger, but since we're still on the west side of it, it looks like that low from the west will still move in and push the block NE

Edited by edinburgh_1992
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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Cold uppers just about touch the end of the  pier  at Great Yarmouth wouldn’t take many more adjustments to put us back in the game though 

991F5FA4-7704-4059-BE45-6098C187BB98.png

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

if this is the magnitude of the swing back then it wont quite be enough but most of  you will be here again in the morning just to check! 

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

Soo close to an East coast battle ground next weekend...

 

ECH0-168.png

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Better but not good enough

Better.thumb.gif.edadce9a637ec4f2e56889a73d58c4e3.gif

Another swing back overnight/tomorrow morning of the same magnitude however and we're back in the game, the battleground will be directly above us rather than to our East as currently forecast.

Though, I think it's more or less game over for this one, GEFS didn't shift West as per the Op

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