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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Even I'm tempted to bin the 12Z. Not because it appears to dispense with any real easterly, but due to its seemingly random wandering...Cue ensemble.

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Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

Yep major downgrade.

  • Stronger block
  • Everything further West
  • Atlantic held back longer
  • Good trough disruption

But because an ultra low resolution image doesn't show major UK snowfall, it's a downgrade.

People need to stop getting so hung up on the details, especially given the wildly different outputs at the moment, very subtle changes can have big changes in terms of the weather we see down at the ground. Save your sanity, look to high-resolution charts for snowfall nearer the time. (Aperge, HIRLAM, Euro4 etc) The medium-extended range is about trends and overall weather patterns, not whether a specific part of the UK will see snowfall.

Thank you Daniel, always find your tweets very informative. I find it very difficult not to take a look at the charts in FL, since they are freely available. 

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Good evening all

Hope everyone is well. Just finished work here in Milton Keynes on my way home back to east London now. Just been looking at the comments since this morning. 

What can I say, what a week which started good and some were almost getting certain about this easterly next week. With a big sigh I am afraid it's a lesson we don't learn alas we try to fill our hearts content somehow.

Back to the topic looks like nothing is still certain. In the past we have seen the models back down and then closer to the time they can flip. These high pressures are really difficult to forcast and I will always wait for a closer time period till I make any assumption on what's likely to happen.

From what I can see in reality the Atlantic is still going to come to force next week but what is  uncertain is how resistance is this high in Scandinavia going to be. I would advise to wait a few days to see what pans out then we can make a more sound judgement for later next week. 

Who knows ECM might turn all the models around let's just see. Even if the Atlantic does win we are only 2 weeks into December be patient Mr snowflake will find us. 

Wishing you all a lovely evening 

kind regards

 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Loving the GFS control this evening, massive improvement, just goes to show how quickly things can turn around. Can the ECM come up with the goods now I wonder?:oldrolleyes:

@T192

gens-0-1-180.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

In fact, I don't normally do this but while we await the ECM, here are some of the various ensemble members charts at T192, looking a lot better than I would have expected, this is not always reflected in the ensemble graph.

9/20 looking ok, Just a bit of fun.

gens-2-1-192.png

gens-3-1-192.png

gens-4-1-192.png

gens-7-1-192.png

gens-8-1-192.png

gens-13-1-192.png

gens-16-1-192.png

gens-18-1-192.png

gens-19-1-192.png

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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
1 minute ago, Decemberof2010 said:

GFS(P) is further west too

Not that I can see. Marginal difference but 06z is further west. 

gfs-0-108.png?12gfs-0-114.png?6

 

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Posted
  • Location: Alvechurch 8 miles South West of Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Alvechurch 8 miles South West of Birmingham

A very dreary typical mild run up to Christmas just a few glimmers of frost for the lucky few.... I do believe the models are showing some very tasty synoptics on going into early January watch this space

 

  

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: Bitter Cold in winter and Extreme heat in summer
  • Location: Leeds
Just now, bluearmy said:

it is ?

not according to the jet it isn't - its slightly east and a little positively tilted wrt its previous run

See above my error

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Just now, beefy201 said:

A very dreary typical mild run up to Christmas just a few glimmers of frost for the lucky few.... I do believe the models are showing some very tasty synoptics on going into early January watch this space

 

assuming you are correct, how much confidence should you have in models some four weeks away ????

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Posted
  • Location: Alvechurch 8 miles South West of Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Alvechurch 8 miles South West of Birmingham

Blue army I don't have confidence in the models 4 days away let alone 4 weeks !!!! its not the finer detail I am interested in which switches every run on the models its quite unusual larger scale synopitcs that are playing out.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

no, the parallel isn't going to stop the Atlantic going over the top either

gfs-0-138.png?12

I'm not calling time on this yet, though the UKMO is, in all honesty, miles away from a snowy breakdown. Scandi Highs are very unpredictable things! 

Edited by Man With Beard
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
6 minutes ago, beefy201 said:

Blue army I don't have confidence in the models 4 days away let alone 4 weeks !!!! its not the finer detail I am interested in which switches every run on the models its quite unusual larger scale synopitcs that are playing out.

indeed - but that merely indicates our chance of having a ticket in the raffle - not much more than that due to our location at the eastern edge of a large warm ocean and the western edge of a huge continent !!

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43 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

OMG i was just going to post that chart lol.

GFS regains the signal for strat warmings, all the way through the run there are mini warmings going on and then at the end, thats toasty

Dependent on the deep troughing over eastern Siberia, compare the GEFS 10hPa temperature charts with and without the low 500hPa heights.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

A lot of colder runs in there, nothing spectacularly cold but the mean remains at or below 0c from this Sunday to the end.

London ensembles.

graphe_ens3.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

indeed - but that merely indicates our chance of having a ticket in the raffle - not much more than that due to our location at the eastern edge of a large warm ocean and the western edge of a huge continent !!

Very true, however, if this Northern hemisphere general synoptic pattern lasts for a long time particularly in conjunction with a weak strat vortex, it's like having a load of tickets for a number of different raffles, like block buying of tickets, so at some point your likely to have your number pulled out.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

no, the parallel isn't going to stop the Atlantic going over the top either

gfs-0-138.png?12

I'm not calling time on this yet, though the UKMO is, in all honesty, miles away from a snowy breakdown. Scandi Highs are very unpredictable things! 

TBH looking at all the data to hand i'm not actually sure we can call whats evolving a scandy high- to me its an extended azores high...

By the time it settles, or attempts to settle over scandy the jet is already shoving it east..

 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Just now, Man With Beard said:

no, the parallel isn't going to stop the Atlantic going the top either

gfs-0-138.png?12

I'm not calling time on this yet, though the UKMO is, in all honesty, miles away from a snowy breakdown. Scandi Highs are very unpredictable things! 

there are enough gefs members finding disruption/undercutting to maintain my interest but whilst the ops continue to take too much split flow ne, its hard to keep the faith on this episode.  

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Very true, however, if this Northern hemisphere general synoptic pattern lasts for a long time particularly in conjunction with a weak strat vortex, it's like having a load of tickets for a number of different raffles, like block buying of tickets, so at some point your likely to have your number pulled out.

hhmmmm …………...with our luck that means a cold spring ……………………..again!

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

hhmmmm …………...with our luck that means a cold spring ……………………..again!

Dont be saying things like that Blue, im just about to go to work (in the rain, again), so already feeling a bit fed up!!

Hoping EC is a good run!!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

hhmmmm …………...with our luck that means a cold spring ……………………..again!

As long as it delivers...................    and last year it delivered for lowland Southern, SW and SE England so that myth of Easterlies in March dont deliver was blew out of the water!!

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Dont be saying things like that Blue, im just about to go to work (in the rain, again), so already feeling a bit fed up!!

Hoping EC is a good run!!

I got a run tomorrow morning!!dont even feel like going now thanks to the models lol!!so demotivated lol!!hopefully ecm can cheer us up!!

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