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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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matt111 Maestro

matt111

Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
Posted (edited)

Upgrade? Downgrade? Anyone know...? :unknw:

Seems like the more complex it gets, the less people get on with each other in here. 

Edited by matt111
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, AWD said:

With all these "downgrades" you keep reporting, I assume next week is now showing strong SSW'rly winds with temps in the mid - high teens and a strong SPV forecast for the next 2 months?

In the interests of balance though, all these much vaunted runs lately will have delivered what exactly in a week and a halfs time in terms of tangible reward?, even at 600ft in the pennines i would wager a big fat zero in terms of inches of snow.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Dave Kightley Enthusiast

Dave Kightley

Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Scandy high putting up a real battle on 12z..

We could do with some brakes being applied on these lows coming out of the States tho, they are relentless.

The models are really struggling as suspected with this.. It hard to make a forecast with whats on offer to us.. A low of 955 air pressure you would suspect is abit OTT 

Edited by Dave Kightley
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Scandy high putting up a real battle on 12z..

Indeed, looking at the 12z you can clearly see why exeter call it finely balanced..thoroughly enjoyable model watching for sure..hope cold wins! 

Edited by Frosty.
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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted (edited)

Interesting. Wonder if these two highs can join up, Atlantic being shut down from the states..

HHH.thumb.png.b3ebbcfb4386ac6b3c3802d88cca2dfa.png

Edited by Daniel Smith
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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
  • Popular Post
Posted

Please don't reply to anyone in here that you think is on a wind up, it just escalates the situation. Posts will be hidden! Please report the post(s) in question and refrain from biting.

Be assured, we're monitoring the activity, and it will be dealt with.

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
Just now, Dave Kightley said:

The models are really struggling as suspected with this.. It hard to make a forecast with whats on offer to us.. A low of 955 air pressure you would suspect is about OTT 

Perhaps,they are a real pain tho, you can see at day 9 the scandy high has retreated, if we didnt have that little fellow in the western Atlantic then the azores high could pull back int the Atlantic..

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booferking Veteran

booferking

Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

Interesting. Wonder if these two highs can join up, Atlantic being shut down from the states..

Gem says so this is the area for interest for me late on..

gemnh-0-240.png

Edited by booferking
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snowray Veteran

snowray

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Posted

Look at the difference by D9 as compared to 06z, it seems to me that anything is still possible, I mean the Scandi high hasn't even set up shop yet. More runs required I'd say.

 

gfs-0-216.png

gfs-0-222.png

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Certainly nothing mild on the horizon, and plenty cold enough for the Scottish ski centres to look forward to.

Netweather GFS Image

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snowangel32 Rising Star

snowangel32

Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
Posted
Just now, Frosty. said:

Indeed, looking at the 12z you can clearly see why exeter call it finely balanced..thoroughly enjoyable model watching for sure..hope cold wins! 

Yh frosty thats the main thing its enjoyable no matter what the final outcome. Shame to see some in fighting on the thread caused by blatent wind ups. Festive season has just started still a long way to go.

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snowray Veteran

snowray

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Posted
4 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Interesting. Wonder if these two highs can join up, Atlantic being shut down from the states..

HHH.thumb.png.b3ebbcfb4386ac6b3c3802d88cca2dfa.png

I have been thinking that, long shot but would be the best possible scenario. Azores high trying to move up, needs to get lost!

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Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Posted
15 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Scandal block is certainly more resilient than the 6z 

It will be a scandal for some if it doesn't come to fruition 

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

Don't get me wrong, this run is actually a better run but i have differing reasons for my view from most, the ridge is sharper into the pole so another attack on the PV, all good and i'm still bullish about January.

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edinburgh_1992 Community Regular

edinburgh_1992

Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Location: Edinburgh
Posted
5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Certainly nothing mild on the horizon, and plenty cold enough for the Scottish ski centres to look forward to.

Netweather GFS Image

Not particularly cold either, temperatures at 850hpa hovering around 0 or just under for Scotland. Certainly not cold enough to see snow at lower levels, just endless rain and gales especially for the scottish

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Perhaps signs that the Atlantic is slowing down at 288..

Yes, could be a Greeny or Atlantic block here.

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Chertseystreamer79 Enthusiast

Chertseystreamer79

Posted
  • Location: Chertsey, Surrey
  • Location: Chertsey, Surrey
Posted
45 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:
47 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

I'm sad to report that the GFS12Z is yet another downgrade to its previous run. There is now no snow event showing up as the cold has been shoved further east.  By the looks of things currently it would be very lucky if I achieve more than one day of 'easterly winds'.

gfs-2-138.png

I always preferred android...

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
5 minutes ago, booferking said:

Start looks..

gfsnh-10-384 (1).png

OMG i was just going to post that chart lol.

GFS regains the signal for strat warmings, all the way through the run there are mini warmings going on and then at the end, thats toasty

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Midlander Community Regular

Midlander

Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
Posted
3 minutes ago, Chertseystreamer79 said:

 

I was waiting for someone to say that LOL!

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)
54 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

I'm sad to report that the GFS12Z is yet another downgrade to its previous run. There is now no snow event showing up as the cold has been shoved further east.  By the looks of things currently it would be very lucky if I achieve more than one day of 'easterly winds'.

gfs-2-138.png

Yep major downgrade.

  • Stronger block
  • Everything further West
  • Atlantic held back longer
  • Good trough disruption

But because an ultra low resolution image doesn't show major UK snowfall, it's a downgrade.

People need to stop getting so hung up on the details, especially given the wildly different outputs at the moment, very subtle changes can have big changes in terms of the weather we see down at the ground. Save your sanity, look to high-resolution charts for snowfall nearer the time. (Aperge, HIRLAM, Euro4 etc) The medium-extended range is about trends and overall weather patterns, not whether a specific part of the UK will see snowfall.

Edited by Daniel Smith
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