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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Tuscan Apennines (approx 500M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal (Continental)
  • Location: Tuscan Apennines (approx 500M ASL)
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes however it wont go through it like the ECM & as it moves NE it will become neutral the neg tilted allowing Energy SE.. 

You give us hope in world (& thread) where hope is sorely needed!

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

But there's no need to be worried: the greater the models struggle with uncertainty, the greater the potential reward, when it comes...?

Netweather GFS Image

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Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)

I'm sad to report that the GFS12Z is yet another downgrade to its previous run. There is now no snow event showing up as the cold has been shoved further east.  By the looks of things currently it would be very lucky if I achieve more than one day of 'easterly winds'.

gfs-2-138.png

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

T138, slight margins but block less affected, Continental feed for at least the east and SE.  Got to say with wax and wane full blown easterly imo not on the cards....not just this run but also going forward.  Atlantic to play its part.....but that doesn’t mean we won’t or can’t get very cold

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
2 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

T138, slight margins but block less affected, Continental feed for at least the east and SE.  Got to say with wax and wane full blown easterly imo not on the cards....not just this run but also going forward.  Atlantic to play its part.....but that doesn’t mean we won’t or can’t get very cold

 

BFTP

126-574UK.GIF?06-12

you can see a dividing line, the cold actually starts to back west in between 144 and the 150 charts

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

200 miles shift West for the LP energy!

Yes.thumb.png.85420234165ad977c0b1af4b807bb2ef.png

another 200 miles on the next run and Eastern England is seeing snow..

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
Just now, booferking said:

So there you have them at 144hr gfs is the pick of them..

gfs-0-144 (1).png

UW144-21 (2).gif

gem-0-144.png

At this range, the GFS looks the most promising.

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Location: Edinburgh

GFS12 is turning out to be even worse, +2/+3 temperatures at 850hpa predicted for next Wednesday over Edinburgh... coupled with heavy rain. Wouldn't mind at least seeing some sleet or snow, but with SW winds it would be very unlikely

Mid-long term doesn't look promising either on any of the main models with endless lows moving in from the west.  

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

What on earth is going on in here this afternoon, not looking at the charts as I’m low on data - beginning to understand how newbies feel, just on this page there are some saying it’s a massive downgrade and basically giving up hope and others saying it’s an improvement. Got to love this place.

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
3 minutes ago, karyo said:

At this range, the GFS looks the most promising.

And to be honest I'm not really worried about this easterly next week if it happens are not it looks toothless and likely only to effect the east off the country it's height rises out west towards Greenland later on that i really want to see so let's see if this continue in fi..

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
1 minute ago, AWD said:

With all these "downgrades" you keep reporting, I assume next week is now showing strong SSW'rly winds with temps in the mid - high teens and a strong SPV forecast for the next 2 months?

Looks more like an old-fashioned forecasters' nightmare, to me...

Netweather GFS Image

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Well its still going to be cold on this run, no warm up by T192. What now, yes a right nightmare!

gfs-0-192.png

gfs-1-192.png

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Looks more like an old-fashioned forecasters' nightmare, to me...

Netweather GFS Image

Hilarious that the -5c isotherm is closer to the UK coming all the way from Canada than we can manage from Europe..

Good GFS, it's a step in the right direction, not all the way but good to see the Westward shift again

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