The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

[BlueHedgehog074]

Not really the appetising runs I was hoping for this morning I admit. So I confess to building my hopes up a bit too much.

Having said that, seeing the Atlantic looking to have more of a role was perhaps to be expected. Though not definite.

While there is still time for things to change for the better again for those looking for a more robust Scandinavian High and Easterly winds, do feel it probably won’t have enough power to completely fend of the crazy Atlantic Lows. Just personally how I see things.

A possible battleground snow event could still occur later next week during the likely dual between the Atlantic Lows and the Scandinavian block. Albeit maybe mostly for hills over Northern and Eastern areas. Depends how much cold air the approaching Atlantic Lows (if they really do progress far enough East) run into, as well as the Atlantic’s angle of attack. 

Not everyone will agree, but the possibility of getting served mouldy cheese (Atlantic for those who hate it), rather than getting those Nik Naks (cold and snow) via Seabrooks (Scandinavian block) seems a bit more likely for now.

Feel like it really will be the case of the Atlantic Lows (eventually anyway), progressing far enough East so that amplification develops to our West towards the Atlantic and cold then comes down from the North. But even with that, it could be one of those ‘how many times does that happen but never comes off’ scenarios. 

I’d be happy to be wrong and that the block has more power to it than realised. At least there is likely to be a few settled, drier, days before the possibility of the weather turned unsettled again from the West! ?

Meant to have posted this, this morning, but a great post by TeamJo on page 187 about trying not to fret about model output too much and keeping things sensible. 

[WINTRY WALES]

27 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Yes - agreed. Good summary. Of note perhaps is the rate of decline visible today on the momentum budgets around 30N. Very steep. This suggests to me that a stormy atlantic spell prior to rebuilding of heights in and around 18th Dec could end up being very stormy. I am personally confident in what I have laid out over the last few weeks, which is of a cyclical attempt at high lat blocking that will only really begin to take hold in the second half of the month - but it is uncanny that a momentum signal in the charts today suggests a very stormy period just when RJS suggested there might be one. I know this isnt the seasonal forecast thread, but if you havent read RJS's take on the season ahead over on that thread then do so. Totally different methodology - but an uncanny knack for accuracy.

So - we have a ridge approaching....we will have an atlantic brewing alongside, and in 7 - 10 days' time we will have interaction of the two. Undercut? Heights blown away? Up for grabs....but whatever happens next week I cant see a flat alantic being the end product. Heights will soon pop back up, and with luck our cold air source gets colder in the meantime. Best case scenario next week would obviously be for as much energy as possible to pass under the block, but the sharp fall in momentum evidenced today suggests to me that the storm track next week wont be far enough south for that. Let's wait and see. I'm still munching my breadsticks and hoping to see Muse take to the stage.

 

 

Just a quick note....I can’t see RJS’s winter forecast anywhere...can someon point me towards it. I’ve looked in the obvious but cannot see it

[Methuselah]

1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

Not only are the synoptic 6 or 12 hour models swopping from run to run. The anomaly charts are not showing any real solid consistency, 2-3 days with charts suggesting an upper flow pattern, then a change, see links below. I suggest that the NOAA 6-10 with its large +ve heights and ridging over N Norway is unlikely to show on the next 6-10. Already no sign of it on its 8-14 version.

The Atlantic, in some form, looks the most likely to me amid all the differing outputs from any source. Probably more Polar than Tropical in terms of weather type. Windy at times as well as surface features deepen as they run across the Atlantic.

Beyond 14 days, not my area so I leave to others. Do not take much notice of the synoptic 6 and 12 hour outputs much further than 144 hours at the moment, and again as I mentioned earlier try comparing like with like at that time scale, perhaps down to 120 hours?

Aye John...past 11/12 the GEFS ensemble looks like a dog's breakfast, to me; even though the mean, op and control runs don't show any wild fluctuations...?

Edited December 6, 2018 by Ed Stone

[Frosty.]

No downgrade in longer term outlook..i.e predominantly below average temperatures, at least further east and south...so, some wintry weather is on the menu at times in the weeks ahead!!

[Mike Poole]

A fall back in the number of GEFS members showing a SSW today, back down to 2/21, maybe reflecting the discussion yesterday that the models were being too fast with that aspect?

12z suite should be interesting viewing tonight after the slightly disappointing output earlier.

[snowangel32]

Big run of models coming up. 06z inproved slightly but still disapointing. We do look to have taken an early blow as it seems the Atlantic is supercharged and determined to blow our house down. We might have been unlucky this time but even if the Easterly happened the uppers were not great for Snow in the South. Best hope the lows allow the pattern to reset and we start again. PV is still open to attack and eventually the Atlantic will subside. Chin up evreone and have a great day.

[lassie23]

Atlantic 3 Siberia 0 bit of a pattern developing this winterroll on winter 2019/2020 when the new ice age begins.

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Atlantic 3 Siberia 0 bit of a pattern developing this winter

I don't agree, I think it's finely balanced and could easily tip back in our favour..looking forward to the 12z runs!!

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Atlantic 3 Siberia 0 bit of a pattern developing this winterroll on winter 2019/2020 when the new ice age begins.

Seriously are you calling this winter a bust after just 6 days?? and exactly what pattern has developed this winter so far? 6 days where day follows night? or lunch after breakfast?? 

[lassie23]

Just now, Frosty. said:

I don't agree, I think it's finely balanced and could easily tip back in our favour..looking forward to the 12z runs!!

Are you frosty frosty, who everyone was worried about because you disappeared

[lassie23]

1 minute ago, More Snow said:

Seriously are you calling this winter a bust after just 6 days?? and exactly what pattern has developed this winter so far? 6 days where day follows night? or lunch after breakfast?? 

Not yet lol but the Atlantic is not as dead as everyone was thinking it would be

[swfc]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

I don't agree, I think it's finely balanced and could easily tip back in our favour..looking forward to the 12z runs!!

Big ask frosty looking across all mo today.Id wager it stays with an unsettled west to east flow then going more nnw later in the month.The high looks very weak and transient but I honestly hope it stays put and expands

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Are you frosty frosty, who everyone was worried about because you disappeared

Yes I came back because I got a lot of concerned messages, some lovely people on netweather..glad I did come back, the models look fascinatingly poised going forward.

Edited December 6, 2018 by Frosty.

[lassie23]

3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Yes I came back because I got a lot of concerned messages..glad I did, the models look fascinatingly poised going forward.

Welcome back, hope the weather makes it worth your while returning

[SLEETY]

5 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Are you frosty frosty, who everyone was worried about because you disappeared

yeah he disappeared for about 4 months,we don’t know if it’s the real frosty or not that’s back lol.We don’t even know why he disappeared,and whilst it’s quiet here,where is Ian Pennell who does long range forecasts and has done netweather forecasts ,where is he ,nothing from him for ages.Be nice if the owners of the site could say what’s happened to him i would have thought.

[lassie23]

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

yeah he disappeared for about 4 months,we don’t know if it’s the real frosty or not that’s back lol.We don’t even know why he disappeared,and whilst it’s quiet here,where is Ian Pennell who does long range forecasts and has done netweather forecasts ,where is he ,nothing from him for ages.Be nice if the owners of the site could say what’s happened to him i would have thought.

I always looked forward to his winter forecast

[snowray]

20 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

I always looked forward to his winter forecast

Do you have a winter forecast for us by any chance Lassie?

[swfc]

Can I ask whilst its quiet does the icon only run to 120-hrs on metiociel ??? tia .

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, swfc said:

Can I ask whilst its quiet does the icon only run to 120-hrs on metiociel ??? tia .

To T120 on 6z and 18z, to T180 on 0z and 12z.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

40 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Not yet lol but the Atlantic is not as dead as everyone was thinking it would be

Everyone except me lass! I never underestimate it Dec to Feb

[lassie23]

18 minutes ago, snowray said:

Do you have a winter forecast for us by any chance Lassie?

lol I can't tell my angular momentum from my elbow, but if i was to stick my neck out I would say a repeat of last winter but with a cold spell in January too. What do the long range models suggest?

[Met4Cast]

A noticeable shift back Westwards on the ICON with more energy going underneath, good start!

 

[markw2680]

53 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Yes I came back because I got a lot of concerned messages, some lovely people on netweather..glad I did come back, the models look fascinatingly poised going forward.

This place wouldn’t be the same without you mate. Keep it up

[Midlander]

3 hours ago, minus86BriJ said:

Schadenfreude entry #162.

Johnp pointed out that the meteorological winter is just 6 days old, an indisputable fact that implies there's plenty of time for the 98% of us on here hoping for cold.  Your retort is dig driven conjecture that only seeks to satisfy your trolling agenda (I'm glad I don't know what that entails).

 

Anyway, I for one am fairly optimistic going forward after reading some of the top players assessments of the potential SSW towards the end of the month. Thumbs up emoji!

I dismiss the claims that you put forward about myself, If you have a problem with my comments then contact the relevant people. I suggest that you don't use such words without having proof. I am not a troll, nothing of the sort. I aim to look at model output in a non bias, subjective way; regardless of my personal weather preferences. And at the moment the outlook for those hoping for extreme cold and record breaking snowfall (like myself) is for average conditions at best. I wish you a pleasant day.

[snowray]

4 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

lol I can't tell my angular momentum from my elbow, but if i was to stick my neck out I would say a repeat of last winter but with a cold spell in January too. What do the long range models suggest?

This, but I still think we might get an easterly at some point in January, hope its not a blow drier type of easterly though coming up from Greece, had enough of them ones.