The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, PerfectStorm said:

Lack of posts sums it up, the GFS 06z is even worse than the 0z. Atlantic comes in quicker. 

Yes, although there is a snow event for Northern UK but generally agree its crap, i wouldn't take a few hours of wet slushy snow for myself to lose the long term blocking signal and it all go crap for all of us afterwards.

[radiohead]

Impressive to see broad agreement between the 06Z GFS and the 0Z ECM at the distant range of 200+ hours. Looks like we may need to watch this period for potential stormy conditions.

[Ventnor Viking]

2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Lol . Up until yesterday morning it was looking pretty good next week for cold crisp weather . Now it’s a bit . Let’s give it another 10 days and see where we are . All the signs look good going forward. 

To be fair it was looking good. I honestly want cold as much as everyone else. Ive been there, as we all have, when we think its odds in then we have our hopes taken away by the models  

10 days time would be great, perfect for christmas. I still think mid-late Jan will be good for us (i dont get joy in saying that) but thats where all the indicators are pointing and thats not changed a great deal. 

[booferking]

5 minutes ago, karyo said:

Quite a change in the models in the last 24 hours. Basically the high pressure is too far east for the UK and not as strong as initially thought. To be honest, I am not gutted because the easterly looked a bit toothless (the uppers were surprisingly high for mid December).

Let's hope we get cool zonality before the next easterly opportunity arises.

Greenland high better of chasing them deliver more to all..

[Tim Bland]

06z GFS cancels any cold snap all together, Atlantic is back in by Tuesday

[karyo]

2 minutes ago, booferking said:

Greenland high better of chasing them deliver more to all..

I also prefer a Greenland high but it is also pretty elusive 

[MP-R]

11 minutes ago, karyo said:

Quite a change in the models in the last 24 hours. Basically the high pressure is too far east for the UK and not as strong as initially thought. To be honest, I am not gutted because the easterly looked a bit toothless (the uppers were surprisingly high for mid December).

Let's hope we get cool zonality before the next easterly opportunity arises.

Tbh I was just looking forward to something dry and at worst average temperature-wise. The temperature has recently been essentially double the average.

Cold zonality would at least be a lot sunnier!

 

[Midlander]

Just now, Tim Bland said:

06z GFS cancels any cold snap all together, Atlantic is back in by Tuesday

Indeed Bland people were wrong to automatically dismiss the model runs yesterday which showed stormy conditions, this is very devastating for all as this will effectively be our second failure of the season, I hope this doesn’t become a trend, although people have been going on and on about how good the overall N.H setup is it hasn’t been any good to us, last Winter was better unfortunately.

[snowray]

Some light at the end of the tunnel, Greenland high coming up?

[swfc]

Look to the nnw at day ten" fi granted" plenty of ridging and I suspect its a massive slow down of the atlantic

i

[SLEETY]

look North is want you want if your looking for really cold air in Dec like 2010 ,gfs going that way it seems,wish i lived in iceland,-32hpa not far away now

[karyo]

3 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Tbh I was just looking forward to something dry and at worst average temperature-wise. The temperature has recently been essentially double the average.

Cold zonality would at least be a lot sunnier!

 

Yes, we need a significant cooldown pronto! 

[terrier]

Yes the gfs06z doesn’t make the best reading. But didn’t Steve murr say yesterday give it 48-72hours and watch the models back track to a colder blocked set up. Let’s just wait until the weekend. Because if mr murr is on the money all isn’t lost for this cold spell. 

[johnholmes]

In the crazy up and down world of chasing cold, not always but quite often, beyond 144h, do any of you compare like with like at these times scales?

So 00z with 00z for 24 hours nearer T+00 etc?

It will give a more genuine pattern of how a particular model is developing a particular pattern than comparing each run with the last 06 to 00 etc-honest.

Once down to 144h then, yes, the latest data is more important at decreasing time scales.

Try it and see how it works over the next few weeks.

I remain convinced that the idea of a Scandinavian block was never really likely. At least initially. The more likely event from a mobile Atlantic would be pressure rises behind a travelling low, possibly linking to the Azores semi permanent ridge, and further back warm air advection out of northern Canada helping a build of heights in the Greenland area. Just my take on things.

 

Edited December 6, 2018 by johnholmes
spelling

[Paul_1978]

6 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

Indeed Bland people were wrong to automatically dismiss the model runs yesterday which showed stormy conditions, this is very devastating for all as this will effectively be our second failure of the season, I hope this doesn’t become a trend, although people have been going on and on about how good the overall N.H setup is it hasn’t been any good to us, last Winter was better unfortunately.

Good job we're only 6 days into Winter then!

[sorepaw1]

Looking at the 06z the easterly doesn't really get chance to make an impression. 

I think flooding could be more of an issue in some locations and strong winds after Thursday next week. 

I'm hoping for a sustained easterly but in all honesty I think I'd be leading myself up the garden path. 

[Johnp]

7 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

Indeed Bland people were wrong to automatically dismiss the model runs yesterday which showed stormy conditions, this is very devastating for all as this will effectively be our second failure of the season, I hope this doesn’t become a trend, although people have been going on and on about how good the overall N.H setup is it hasn’t been any good to us, last Winter was better unfortunately.

Of course last winter was better, as it consisted of 90+ days.

This one is 5 days old.

[booferking]

1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

In the crazy up and down world of chasing cold, not always but quite often, beyond 144h, do any of you compare like with like at these times scales?

So 00z with 00z for 24 hours nearer T+00 etc?

It will give a more genuine pattern of how a particular model is developing a particular pattern than comparing each run with the last 06 to 00 etc-honest.

Once down to 144h then, yes, the latest data is more important at decreasing time scales.

Try it and see how it works over the next few weeks.

I remain convinced that the idea of a Scandinavian block was never really likely. At least initially. The more likely event from a mobile Atlantic would be pressure rises behind a travelling low, possibly linking to the Azores semi permanent ridge, and further back warm air advection out of northern Canada helping a build of heights in the Greenland area. Just my take on things.

 

Like the sound of that John.

[StormyWeather28]

On 04/12/2018 at 19:04, StormyWeather28 said:

I wouldn't read too much in to either model past Friday at this stage. All show various outcomes for that storm which obviously has huge effects for how it transpires afterwards. Some have the storm much weaker and further south. Others have it stronger and further north. 300 to 500 mile spread of where the strongest winds could be and big difference in strength of winds depending if deepens and goes north or stays run of the mill and south. Only three days away. 

 

[Midlander]

7 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Of course last winter was better, as it consisted of 90+ days.

This one is 5 days old.

Good Morning John, I was trying to explain how December 2018 is increasingly looking like it won’t eclipse December 2017 with cold NW winds and slider lows which means that the Winter to date is nowhere near as good as last year. Also frost and fog has been lagging behind last season as well.

[Man With Beard]

Notable changes between yesterday's 12Z clusters and today's 00Zs - troughing that was forecast over Europe has withdrawn further east, troughing in the Atlantic stronger and more progressive.

  

[shaky]

Gfs para further west and more amplification at 108 hours!

[weirpig]

2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Gfs para further west and more amplification at 108 hours!

It is  much more apparent at 120h  still not enough one would think  but it is a start

[shaky]

3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

It is  much more apparent at 120h  still not enough one would think  but it is a start

Still cant believe how things have gone wrong this morning!!happens with easterlys everytime!!gota hope 12zs bring back the cold theme otherwise we staring down another few weeks of boredom!!

[Scandinavian High.]

I’m not buying non of these charts this morning I think there being way to progressive next weeks weather is not set in stone just yet and longer term. Lots of changes to come ..