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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

I'm not adding caveats though. I'm clarifying...which I didn't think I'd need to. Of course there will be exceptions to the general rule, there always is where the weather is concerned. However I did not mention anything about mild Decembers precluding cold in the proceeding January or February...I merely said it wasn't a good omen. Which I stand by.

I also didn't say that this December would end up mild...just that I wouldn't want to see it end up mild (which I don't think it will to any significant degree).

By the way, it was one of the statisticians on here that worked out the percentages RE December CET and proceeding Jan and Feb CET. The outcome was heavily weighted towards mild Jan and Feb after a mild December.

So yes, we'll leave it at that.

Why can't you just admit you got it/expressed it wrong? None of us are all knowing. Genuine bit of advice not a dig. I think this place would be much easier at times if we'd all openly admit our limitations and errors. 

Edited by Seasonality
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Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

168 looks better than i thought but even EC is powering up a mega low..

 

As long as it goes under and draw in some colder air behind then oh well... GFS keeps it hanging around near Greenland for longer

Edited by Dave Kightley
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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Not surprised at the Atlantic powering through,after I saw the METO talk about the warm SST anamoly off Eastern Seaboard helping to power up the jet stream again.Its on their youtube channel when they talk about the winter ahead.

Fun and games later on I think in Jan and Feb.

Edited by SLEETY
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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The evolution is just a bit slower thats all -

The problem we have here is two fold. Firstly, the initial ridge north is getting weaker with each run. This is now in the 4 day timeframe so not much time for improvements on that front. Secondly, the Atlantic is getting more energetic with each run. 

ECH1-192 (1).gif

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Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset

192h Go under... maybe not.. Just double in size

Edited by Dave Kightley
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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

Anyway. My attention is already moving on (next chase lol). I mentioned last night about looking west. That looks very promising down the line. 

ECH1-216.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Royston, Herts 76m asl
  • Location: Royston, Herts 76m asl
3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The problem we have here is two fold. Firstly, the initial ridge north is getting weaker with each run. This is now in the 4 day timeframe so not much time for improvements on that front. Secondly, the Atlantic is getting more energetic with each run. 

ECH1-192 (1).gif

As I understand it, the strength of a block is not indicative as to its stubbornness or otherwise. 1050Mb can be blown away relatively easily, whereas 1028Mb might just not shift.

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
1 minute ago, Weather Boy said:

As I understand it, the strength of a block is not indicative as to its stubbornness or otherwise. 1050Mb can be blown away relatively easily, whereas 1028Mb might just not shift.

I was referring more to the amplification of the ridge through the uk - now modelled to be weaker. And getting weaker with every run. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cowbridge, Wales (105m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, cold snowy winters, thunderstorms
  • Location: Cowbridge, Wales (105m ASL)

Hugely disappointing this morning gfs and ecm. I had a feeling downgrades were coming - US east cold is never good if it gets into the Atlantic so it fires up low pressures. The utility industry/ highways weather updates I guess seem more accurate atm. I plan around them and all we had was a low risk of cold in the weekly update yesterday. Hopefully a turnaround will come. 

Edited by The4Seasons
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

remains more fluid than many would hope but that keeps things interesting - not for the first time, Exeter’s better update for coldies proved to be the ‘kiss of death’ for this particular easterly!  MOGREPS wasnt good for the easterly according to @essexweather so surprised that they issued what they did ....... maybe was a new run 

 ........looks like upstream could be weakening considerably and as kris pointed out, the polar developments meant an overpowering Atlantic jet push was v likely ....... the pattern is there - it’s just moved ene.  it could swing back a bit but it’s quite a way back to bring the majority of the uk into play on this one.

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

So ec goes kind of towards gfs this morning after a lot of stick yesterday?Still looks ok tho lot of energy going south east late on and pressure re- building

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

Looking only to 144h, UKMO vs GFS vs ECM. UKMO I would say has the most northerly extension of the block and also an interesting placement of that little system north of the Azores. I would suggest there could still be something in this for the UK, too early to call it quits just yet, but yes, as that dreadfully overused netweather cliché says, it's squeaky bum time. 

UE144-21 (2).gif

gfseu-0-144 (1).png

ECE1-144 (1).gif

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
15 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM finishes with the atlantic moving SE & residual heights over scandi

My expectation is that low at 168 will be modelled moving further NW & energy transfer will be sliding SE..

Agreed. I suspect it will be deflected somewhat more than modelled. 

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex

This is the issue. All this talk of easterlies was always well into FI. I don’t know why som people are surprised or disappointed. If it all went wrong at T72 then I could understand.

I do think that the signs are promising further down the line though.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level

looks extremely stormy lately on the model runs, surely this is over amplification and the models will moderate the output back to something more sensible.    I'm sure there'll be another flip back towards cold over the next few runs, and away from hyper storms

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Pretty shocked to see how the charts look this morning!!was expecting much better!!hell even the easterly doesnt even reach us!where stuck in no mans land and then atlantic comes steaming in!!so dissapointing man and draining!!

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Yeah there’s no sugar coating this mornings output, the UKMO is okay but the ECM and GFS are awful for cold, the block barely becomes established before the Atlantic pushes through. 

Lets hope it’s just a wobble..

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
33 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

remains more fluid than many would hope but that keeps things interesting - not for the first time, Exeter’s better update for coldies proved to be the ‘kiss of death’ for this particular easterly!  MOGREPS wasnt good for the easterly according to @essexweather so surprised that they issued what they did ....... maybe was a new run 

 ........looks like upstream could be weakening considerably and as kris pointed out, the polar developments meant an overpowering Atlantic jet push was v likely ....... the pattern is there - it’s just moved ene.  it could swing back a bit but it’s quite a way back to bring the majority of the uk into play on this one.

Yeah certainly a complete implosion from the models.

Still could be wintry in the north.

We had similar situation in 2014 early season got right down to 96hrs and next thing the entire Scandinavian block just collapse and we were in a mostly westerly and northwest flow which lead to some cold and snow into Scotland and northwest UK.

Oh well plenty of winter yet.

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