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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
Just now, CreweCold said:

I guess it's better to look at the bigger (longer) picture. Getting winter in this month was always going to be more of a long shot than further into the season. The Atlantic WILL run out of steam eventually. 

Hope so crewe this rain is just relentless...

Hopefully EC will be better

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Hope so crewe this rain is just relentless...

Hopefully EC will be better

What we don't want to see is this month turn out too mild. Mild Decembers aren't a good omen for the rest of winter historically...

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
Just now, CreweCold said:

What we don't want to see is this month turn out too mild. Mild Decembers aren't a good omen for the rest of winter historically...

Well if GFS is anywhere near right we will get about 3 or 4 dry days before weather systems come crashing in,again.

Have to see what ens look like,and EC of course

 

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well if GFS is anywhere near right we will get about 3 or 4 dry days before weather systems come crashing in,again.

Have to see what ens look like,and EC of course

 

I get the impression that this will be a better run stratospherically later on in the run than the 18z

gfsnh-0-234.png?0

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Iceaxecrampon Veteran

Iceaxecrampon

Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
Posted
6 hours ago, weirpig said:

Not sure how we got there  but we are under a hurricane at 216h

Don’t worry. There’s not one coming. It’s only the default Atlantic being overcooked. 

......maybe?

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
Just now, Weather-history said:

  

1986-87, 1985-86, 1954-55, 1954-52, 1918-19......that's just off the top of my head

And what was their deviation from the running average?

Very mild Decembers don't usually spell good news going forward. I'm not talking within 1C of average here.

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)

Now this is what I'm talking about

SSW precursor territory

gfsnh-0-324.png?0

gfsnh-10-372.png?0

gfsnh-10-384.png?0

5 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

1986: 6.2

1985: 6.3

1954: 6.8

1953: 6.9

1918: 6.9

1900: 7.2

So out of the 6 years you've mentioned (out of over 200 years of reliable records) one is >2C above the mean December temperature. I'd suggest there are many many more examples of mild/very mild Decembers followed on by mild January and February months.

Edited by CreweCold
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Dave Kightley Enthusiast

Dave Kightley

Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
Posted

The 00z run is still better short to medium term with the scandi high hanging on alot longer then the 18z so until that is sorted and where this low ends up might still draw in a NEly as it clears yet!

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
1 minute ago, Dave Kightley said:

The 00z run is still better short to medium term with the scandi high hanging on alot longer then the 18z so until that is sorted and where this low ends up might still draw in a NEly as it clears yet!

I thought it looked better longer term lol..

Think im just a bit fed up of rain TBH..

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Weather-history Maestro

Weather-history

Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

 

So out of the 6 years you've mentioned (out of over 200 years of reliable records) one is >2C above the mean December temperature. I'd suggest there are many many more examples of mild/very mild Decembers followed on by mild January and February months.

 

With all due respect Crewe, you are adding caveats to each of your responses.

 Mild Decembers aren't a good omen for the rest of winter historically...becomes Very mild Decembers don't usually spell good news going forward.

I'm not talking within 1C of average here becomes  So out of the 6 years you've mentioned (out of over 200 years of reliable records) one is >2C above the mean December temperature.

I know there's more infact, you've got very mild December, average January, cold February. there's even a cold January sandwiched between two very mild months. It depends what you criteria is. Infact 1977-78 is another the December was 6.1

I know Ian Brown has mentioned this before but even he restricted it to his post 1987 period.

Anyway we'll leave it at that

Edited by Weather-history
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Dave Kightley Enthusiast

Dave Kightley

Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I thought it looked better longer term lol..

Think im just a bit fed up of rain TBH..

Not ideal but I thought the 18z were a poorer run in terms of shunting the high away quicker so until that is sorted and track of the low, it may still tap into  the cold air as it clears from the NE if ever how brief

Edited by Dave Kightley
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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

 

With all due respect Crewe, you are adding caveats to each of your responses.

 Mild Decembers aren't a good omen for the rest of winter historically...becomes Very mild Decembers don't usually spell good news going forward.

I'm not talking within 1C of average here becomes  So out of the 6 years you've mentioned (out of over 200 years of reliable records) one is >2C above the mean December temperature.

I know there's more infact, you've got very mild December, average January, cold February. there's even a cold January sandwiched between two very mild months. It depends what you criteria is. Infact 1977-78 is another the December was 6.1

I know Ian Brown has mentioned this before but even he restricted it his post 1987 period.

Anyway we'll leave it at that

I'm not adding caveats though. I'm clarifying...which I didn't think I'd need to. Of course there will be exceptions to the general rule, there always is where the weather is concerned. However I did not mention anything about mild Decembers precluding cold in the proceeding January or February...I merely said it wasn't a good omen. Which I stand by.

I also didn't say that this December would end up mild...just that I wouldn't want to see it end up mild (which I don't think it will to any significant degree).

By the way, it was one of the statisticians on here that worked out the percentages RE December CET and proceeding Jan and Feb CET. The outcome was heavily weighted towards mild Jan and Feb after a mild December.

So yes, we'll leave it at that.

Edited by CreweCold
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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted (edited)

Morning.imo the movement or attempt at the nhp to send areas on a south east trajectory is an aspect of the coming weeks is important.i can't see any deep cold in the next ten days but as Crewe said the atmosphere does look primed to slow down the Atlantic.rain may be a problem but it is Dec and not unusual.id agree that keeping temps down will help heading towards Jan which tbh may herald winter proper.

Edited by swfc
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Ladyofthestorm Aficionado

Ladyofthestorm

Posted
  • Location: Isle of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Sun in summer, snow in winter, wind in Autumn and rainbows in the spring!
  • Location: Isle of Lewis
Posted

The GFS always has a default bias for being Atlantic driven. But mild Decembers are often associated with strong  El Nino winter's  influences  2014/15 being one of them off the top of my head.  The Stratosphere in the high latitudes is volatile/the polar vortex vulnerable. The reason for all the rain in England is because is because the Jetstream has slipped south. 

 

I remember (I think it was Chino) suggesting that last winter snow was a precursor to what we could get this year. I think he is right. 

Something big is lurking around the corner it's just that the charts haven't picked it up yet. 

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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
Posted (edited)

looking through the useless GFS mist + UKMO - overnight is an upgrade with many more members moving energy SE at 168-192 period

take this for example

A4A3F185-238C-4453-A04D-AEE7A9E30A0A.thumb.png.887f8006618e9c459668654e491e0dde.png

 

The GFS is just starting its journey to working it all out...

 

Edited by Steve Murr
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Dave Kightley Enthusiast

Dave Kightley

Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
Posted (edited)

Navgem 00z,GFS P and Gem loving the big low at 144h with a SW to NE tilt in the Atlantic as well...UKMO the best of a nasty bunch this morning

Edited by Dave Kightley
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syed2878 Rising Star

syed2878

Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
Posted

although the GFS  this morning looks to bring back the Atlantic I don’t think it will be as easy as that i think  The Scandinavia high will hold on a bit longer than what the GFS is showing.  let’s wait and see what the ECMW shows in an hour or so I think the GFS will change again in 6 hours time. 

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted

Looks like we are staring at another downgrade at fairly short notice here. Even the ecm looks to be backing down on the strength of the ridge up to scandi. Sometimes the models underestimate the energy in the Atlantic. Looks like this could be one of those occasions. Compare yesterday's ecm 144 to today's 120.

ECH1-144.gif

ECH1-120.gif

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Looks like we are staring at another downgrade at fairly short notice here. Even the ecm looks to be backing down on the strength of the ridge up to scandi. Sometimes the models underestimate the energy in the Atlantic. Looks like this could be one of those occasions. Compare yesterday's ecm 144 to today's 120.

ECH1-144.gif

ECH1-120.gif

Not good ..

That looks like a big backtrack..

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Dave Kightley Enthusiast

Dave Kightley

Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
Posted (edited)

Hmmm not bad at 168 looks like going under? Let that clar then we may get the NEly at the end behind it.. better then GFS anyway

Edited by Dave Kightley
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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Looks like we are staring at another downgrade at fairly short notice here. Even the ecm looks to be backing down on the strength of the ridge up to scandi. Sometimes the models underestimate the energy in the Atlantic. Looks like this could be one of those occasions. Compare yesterday's ecm 144 to today's 120.

ECH1-144.gif

ECH1-120.gif

The evolution is just a bit slower thats all -

Edited by Steve Murr
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