Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

This is in no way any disrespect as worship i GP, but in my mere mortal, humble opinion, thats a bit too soon, yes its model related and i am going on what the models tend to do prior to SSW's rather than the in depth teleconnection knowledge of GP, but i can't see it until the turn of the year, of course it might not happen at all but obviously hope it does.

You wouldn't be alone in thinking that it will be later, into January. Ian Fergusson hinted that the Glosea is seeing major warming in January.

Would love to understand this area properly myself in order to debate it properly rather than relying on far more knowledgable folk, but hey ho! Maybe one day!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, booferking said:

Para for the bin also tonight 144hr we go again in the morning...

gfs-0-144.png

So many runs have bin discarded in the last 24 hours that some members here are going to have to call pest control in the morning as refuse collectors will be unable to cope.

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well while its not too busy in here i thought i would add my tuppence worth in the style of @tight isobar just for fun.

The Wotsits are sending the Quavers curling up into the Golden Wonder Zone,

Salt and Shake will go under the Skips while the Pom Bears attack the pole, 

Thus leaving us with Nik Naks and French Fries via Seabrooks.

Night all

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

Finding it highly amusing that there are colder uppers in the middle of the Atlantic that too the east. That's the real bummer of this cold spell.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
3 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Finding it highly amusing that there are colder uppers in the middle of the Atlantic that too the east. That's the real bummer of this cold spell.

Colder than average SSTs in that area maybe leading to less moderation of cold uppers out of eastern Canada/Greenland? 

Pretty sure SSTs were lower than average in similar areas last winter and helped any north west flow bring more wintry precipitation than normal.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North Tyneside
  • Location: North Tyneside
Just now, MattStoke said:

Colder than average SSTs in that area maybe leading to less moderation of cold uppers out of eastern Canada/Greenland? 

Pretty sure SSTs were lower than average in similar areas last winter and helped any north west flow bring more wintry precipitation than normal.

I did get quite a few snow showers from the north westerlies in 17/18

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Can anyone tell me when the GEFS are coming out please?

There are data flow issues and the GFS 18Z run and it’s suite are either incomplete or late this evening 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Early days but better ridging - more negatively tilted.

gensnh-21-1-138_mtw4.png

Hi mate - my opinion fwiw is the block will get pushed east, but perhaps crucially, not SE..

Which means the Atlantic will come in next weekend, but perhaps there will be some uncercutting.

The Atlantic is super angry at the mo, we really could do with those zonal wind speeds falling away.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Hi mate - my opinion fwiw is the block will get pushed east, but perhaps crucially, not SE..

Which means the Atlantic will come in next weekend, but perhaps there will be some uncercutting.

The Atlantic is super angry at the mo, we really could do with those zonal wind speeds falling away.

YES - im hoping the block is still within reach after the atlantic push and that the strat isnt going to keep downgrading, thatswhy im waiting for the GEFS gore

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

GEFS zonal in the main but the strat warming signak looks fecent

 

zonal in fi that is onciously not in the short term

 

Edited by feb1991blizzard
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
1 hour ago, More Snow said:

Well while its not too busy in here i thought i would add my tuppence worth in the style of @tight isobar just for fun.

The Wotsits are sending the Quavers curling up into the Golden Wonder Zone,

Salt and Shake will go under the Skips while the Pom Bears attack the pole, 

Thus leaving us with Nik Naks and French Fries via Seabrooks.

Night all

I have one concern. Mouldy cheese arises if the Salt and Shake don’t go under the Skips. 

Need spaghetti bolognese to show Dominos pizza disrupting sprouts high up in the foodosphere within the Golden Wonder Zone. A slow down in the apple pies would keep Quavers curved up. Sprouts would be doomed. And Pom Bears would go on to attack Canada and Greenland. 

Seabrooks to deliver triple chocolate cake after Christmas, as bigger pack of Skips sends some Pepper under. 

Any servings of mouldy cheese shown by 18Z Spaghetti Bolognese Suite in Squishy Tomato World, shouldn’t be much. Eventual outcome to still be yummy cake! 

Expect the 00Z Candy run to be appetising! 

  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset

Minor differences in just slightly less amplified and further east on the 00z compared to the 18z but not much in it upto 162h

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

GFS looks very progressive this morning, heavy rain into the country by thursday next week..

Not what i was hoping to see after literally days and days of rain round here (monday aside).

UKMO looks a bit better at 144 but i suspect its going to go the same way.

Not a good start to the day ..

wish we could shut down the seemingly never ending conveyor belt of Atlantic lows..

 

Edited by northwestsnow
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS looks very progressive this morning, heavy rain into the country by thursday next week..

Not what i was hoping to see after literally days and days of rain round here (monday aside).

UKMO looks a bit better at 144 but i suspect its going to go the same way.

Not a good start to the day ..

wish we could shut down the seemingly never ending conveyor belt of Atlantic lows..

 

Looks better then the 18z with the Scandi high further West at 192h and cold upper coming from both directions.. Need to get rid of that pesky thing though as you say.. 

Edited by Dave Kightley
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
13 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS looks very progressive this morning, heavy rain into the country by thursday next week..

Not what i was hoping to see after literally days and days of rain round here (monday aside).

UKMO looks a bit better at 144 but i suspect its going to go the same way.

Not a good start to the day ..

wish we could shut down the seemingly never ending conveyor belt of Atlantic lows..

 

I guess it's better to look at the bigger (longer) picture. Getting winter in this month was always going to be more of a long shot than further into the season. The Atlantic WILL run out of steam eventually. 

Besides, had this month turned out dry, I'd have been very concerned about drought going into next summer.

Edited by CreweCold
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...