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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
8 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

GFS 18z seems to have stalled at 114 hours on Meteociel.

Slightly better than wetter then because its stalled at 108 on there.

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

114 heights perhaps marginally further North but probably not by an amount that makes much difference.

114.thumb.png.abeab7a8df45c1364404b03f8a027d81.png

Not sure what other posters are talking about.. 

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

Maybe the GFS is struggling so much with this pattern that it’s not even going to bother trying to figure it out tonight

Edited by MattStoke
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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
13 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

Already further adjustments on the GFS, the low pressure to the south of Greenland is further east, this doesn't bode well.

 

gfs-0-114.png

No it isn't, maybe by a few yards!

 

Edited by Johnp
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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
1 minute ago, Johnp said:

No it isn't.  

What are you talking about?

He’s a wind up John . Always does it . 

The 18z looks fine but I’m only up to T 108 and it’s froze . 

0B659BD8-A3CB-433E-A1C0-E2D1EAF43514.png

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Extended eps show a continuing trend of troughing over nw Europe and generally low slp over w Europe as a whole ....... if the block puts up a decent fight at the outset then week 2 could be a lot more interesting than currently looks likely as the lw trough disprupts in our vicinity  

Thats the hope Blue..

Just a watching brief for now...as ever there will be lots of twists and turns over the next few days..

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Hi

Final location doesnt matter as much as the angle & spread of the advection ahead of it - it that respect 18z is better & more amplified even though the low is slightly further East then overall scenario is that the run is more amplified -

If you look close at 12z left v 18z right ive marked the top of the ridge ( 'the wave height' ) you will see 18z is further north ( check against faroe Isl ) & the allignment is more vertical plus atlantic alligned more NNE as opposed to NE

8EA243D7-565C-425D-A480-31FF042D0179.thumb.jpeg.840cdca57096cb209d56f984b7b0abe3.jpeg04C7C8F0-0706-4B70-992F-FD4C335583C0.thumb.jpeg.d1e75125f5f06ae3eea94166169974b1.jpeg

S

Thank you Steve for taking the time to explain the setup,  you are always very insightful. 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Some 'david icke'ism...

We have late data issues Again..

Via operationals!!.

As with the ec..@cross roads..

Modem- control..*nil pun intended*...

Or was it ?!!!!!

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Slightly better than wetter then because its stalled at 108 on there.

Anythings better than wetter

had enough of that today

meanwhile....

the NAO/AO showing to tank to neg values mid December

nao.sprd2.thumb.gif.a913e031b43212567899e95686c30b8c.gifao.sprd2.thumb.gif.b88925340551f0758cf57ffaf82c9fd7.gif

the cpc anomoly charts similar to yesterday's

610day_03.thumb.gif.6ea55d7884313a6c3c51bf5e3b20cbaa.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.9d708711171a7bf9ab6bfebea614812b.gif

there is not much more to add today,the consistancy is still the same as yesterday.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

He’s a wind up John . Always does it . 

The 18z looks fine but I’m only up to T 108 and it’s froze . 

0B659BD8-A3CB-433E-A1C0-E2D1EAF43514.png

I'm simply stating that the low is further east, this will undoubtedly have implications down the line, however small. Hope you're having a pleasant evening.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

It's moving again, T120 just out.

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Thing is that these posts that are blatantly from wind up posters put this thread off the rails and could easy put of new members from coming in here, if these posters are known to be on the wind up taking the pee then why cant they be banned from coming onto this thread and derailing it every time they see a chance. i know we should just report it and move on but it just isnt that easy.

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Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
Just now, More Snow said:

Thing is that these posts that are blatantly from wind up posters put this thread off the rails and could easy put of new members from coming in here, if these posters are known to be on the wind up taking the pee then why cant they be banned from coming onto this thread and derailing it every time they see a chance. i know we should just report it and move on but it just isnt that easy.

I think it is important that we remember people having varying degrees of knowledge regarding the weather and people will have different interpretations on the potential outcome. If you have a problem with someones post please report it, the admins are very prompt at dealing with the issue. 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

The cardio-vascular..

Of the esophagus...of heights ..being tried!!!

But the stent..WILL LIKELY BE PUT IN PLACE!!!

@atlantic pushing...#mass scandi block..

The fizzle out..is being VASTLY-undermined!

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)

At +156hrs yet another with a very deep low, this shouldn't be ignored as has been showing up on quite a few models. This does seem plausible given the strong temperature gradient out in western Atlantic, this will put the high under real strain. 

gfseu-0-156.png

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

The cardio-vascular..

Of the osophegus...of heights ..being tried!!!

But the stent..WILL LIKELY BE PUT IN PLACE!!!

@atlantic pushing...#mass scandi block..

The fizzke out..is being VASTLY-undermined!

I do like your posts but I need a dictionary next to me every time I read them!!

never mind keep up the good work

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