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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Operational modelling certainly seems out of sync days 7-10 with expected tropical forcing on the pattern. Best wait a couple of days and review the situation again then.

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
11 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

On the subject of missing members : Anyone heard from TEITS / The Eye In The Sky aka Dave ? Always valued his input, he loves an easterly so not like him not to be posting ? 

I believe at some stage he was ill.arthritis I believe.good poster . sorry mods

Edited by swfc
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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs

I haven’t read any posts where members are throwing toys. 

I think there are just some people saying that because that’s what you are meant to say when the Atlantic looks like winning out. 

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
42 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Operational modelling certainly seems out of sync days 7-10 with expected tropical forcing on the pattern. Best wait a couple of days and review the situation again then.

What do you think they should be showing? 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
19 minutes ago, John Hodgson said:

I’m going to be the person who’s trying to be level headed so here goes. 

We could be in a much worse position this time of year. It’ll be nice even if we get a chilly Christmas.

Yes it would make a welcome change just to get a chilly Christmas day, maybe a touch of frost in the morning? Or am pushing my luck?;)

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Posted
  • Location: Nutts Corner
  • Location: Nutts Corner

In the near term, fridays system seems less potent then previously modelled with NI seemely escaping the worst of the winds as it’s modelled further north

864CF6D0-8CA2-4D4B-9EA3-B846BDC555E9.png

Edited by Weegaz
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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

Blimey iv just popped into the general model thread it’s like the knocker show in there lol take it he isn’t interested in the cold hunt?

anyway what’s the bet everything is looking different again in the morning? Hopefully with no more of these dartboard lows blasting away the block.

i suppose it’s nearly time for yet another gfs jobbie 

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Posted
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Cant get ECM charts but was this run from the GFS around the time you're talking?

gfs-2007122812-0-150.png?12

That actually wasn't a bad effort from GFS as we did get a short lived easterly for a day or two before tje block was blown away by the Atlantic...

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Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)

Already further adjustments on the GFS, the low pressure to the south of Greenland is further east, this doesn't bode well.

 

gfs-0-114.png

Edited by AppleUK 123
Wrong Picture
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15 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Blimey iv just popped into the general model thread it’s like the knocker show in there lol take it he isn’t interested in the cold hunt?

anyway what’s the bet everything is looking different again in the morning? Hopefully with no more of these dartboard lows blasting away the block.

i suppose it’s nearly time for yet another gfs jobbie 

Talking to yourself is the first sign of madness...lol.. perhaps he has had a falling out with Sydney. as for the models we have seen it time and time again in the run up to cold spells, they drop the signal and everybody goes mad, a few runs later the model pick up the signal again and we all hug and cheer as the cold rolls in. im pretty sure the beast from the east at the end of Feb had a few wobbles and comments about the uppers etc and look what happened. chill pill you lot. im sure by the weekend we will be celebrating.

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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
2 hours ago, TomSE12 said:

Still perplexed by some of the doom and gloom merchants, on this thread. I don't know about anybody else's but my calendar tells me it's 5th December!! I'm 63 years of age and, as I stated the other day, only in a handful of those Decembers have I seen any substantial pre-Christmas snowfall, in my location of S.E.Lomdon/N.W.Kent.  Notably 1981 and 2010. But on this thread, it's the same every Winter, a case of knee-jerk reactions, to every frame of every run. Or as the French would say, "Plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose!! For pete's sake, RELAX. If come late Jan/ early Feb, we're still chasing favourable synoptics, then have a moan but its way too premature for some of the "toy throwing", that's taken place!!

Regards,

Tom. 

You a Rush fan by any chance?

Yes more lenient on here if you want the BP to soar head over to the loons on the Model thread

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Just now, Sperrin said:

The lack of posts says everything about the 18z...looks to me like we've been led up the garden path big time. The Scandi high gets pushed out of the way easier than an Arsenal centre back. All low heights gone from southern Europe.

The rock solid models of the past number of days have left us with lots of egg over our faces.

The lack of posts is because the run has stalled on Meteociel and Wetterzentrale 

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Posted
  • Location: Loughmacrory, Co Tyrone. 170m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Loughmacrory, Co Tyrone. 170m asl

My mistake, I was looking at 12z. Have deleted post.

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

The lack of posts is because the run has stalled on Meteociel and Wetterzentrale 

Right at the crucial point as well. The gfsp froze at 114 yesterday. Let's hope we are frozen this time next week. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
1 minute ago, Sperrin said:

The lack of posts says everything about the 18z...looks to me like we've been led up the garden path big time. The Scandi high gets pushed out of the way easier than an Arsenal centre back. All low heights gone from southern Europe.

The rock solid models of the past number of days have left us with lots of egg over our faces.

What are you banging on about,the run is still in it's infancy

that scandi high gets pushed out of the way in FL,i don't beiieve in fairies.

chill...

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

What are you banging on about,the run is still in it's infancy

that scandi high gets pushed out of the way in FL,i don't beiieve in fairies.

chill...

I swear some of the rubbish being posted on here in the last few mins about low heights gone from europe and scandi high shoved away!!gfs looks primed and ready at 114 hours for a cold switch!!

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